比特幣（BTC）的性能繼續使許多人感到驚訝。這就是為什麼它可能已經觸底了。

在宏觀經濟不確定性和收緊流動性時代，比特幣（BTC）繼續以其表現令許多人感到驚訝。

In an era of macroeconomic uncertainty and tightening liquidity, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to surprise many with its performance.

在宏觀經濟不確定性和收緊流動性時代，比特幣（BTC）繼續以其表現令許多人感到驚訝。

Concerns regarding inflation and the global economic state, as well as a Federal Reserve that is still sending mixed signals and in much expected “wait and watch” mode, have done little to keep BTC down. In fact, it has punched through all-time-high levels to sit right now at a price above $84,000 and a market cap well above $1.5 trillion. The big question now is whether this ascent can continue.

對通貨膨脹和全球經濟狀況以及仍在發送混合信號並以“等待和觀察”模式的美聯儲的擔憂，並沒有做任何事情來阻止BTC。實際上，它已經以歷史最高的水平進行了衝擊，現在以超過84,000美元的價格和市值高於1.5萬億美元的價格。現在的最大問題是這次上升是否可以繼續。

Key Indicators Pointing to Bitcoin’s Bottoming Out

指出比特幣底線的關鍵指標

Sjuul presents a data-based viewpoint, detailing why the present price movement of Bitcoin might signal the conclusion of its bearish cycle. Here are the main points he makes:

Sjuul提出了一個基於數據的觀點，詳細介紹了為什麼比特幣的當前價格移動可能標誌著其看跌週期的結論。這是他提出的要點：

1. Actualized capital losses reach record highs.

1。實際的資本損失達到了記錄高點。

A crucial indicator of market sentiment is the Realized Cap—a metric that accounts for the value of Bitcoin at the price it was last moved. When Bitcoin is traded at a loss, the Realized Cap shows how much of the market is currently underwater. Recently, Bitcoin’s Realized Cap in loss reached an all-time high (ATH) of $410 billion. According to Sjuul, this is significant because it reflects a broad swath of investors who are sitting at a loss, particularly those who bought BTC after its peak in November. Historically, when this metric hits new highs, it signifies the point at which most investors become unwilling to sell at a loss, often marking the capitulation phase.

市場情緒的關鍵指標是已實現的上限，這是一個指標，該指標以上次移動的價格計算比特幣的價值。當比特幣虧損時，實現的上限顯示了目前在水下的市場。最近，比特幣的損失上限達到了4100億美元的歷史最高水平（ATH）。根據Sjuul的說法，這很重要，因為它反映了一大批損失的投資者，尤其是那些在11月達到頂峰後購買BTC的投資者。從歷史上看，當這個指標達到新高點時，它表示大多數投資者不願虧損出售的地步，通常標誌著投降階段。

2. Short-Term Holder (STH) Losses Reflect the Levels of FTX Mishap

2。短期持有人（STH）損失反映了FTX不事的水平

Another indicator pointing toward Bitcoin’s potential bottoming out is the state of Short-Term Holders (STH). Typically, these holders have acquired Bitcoin within the past six months. They often capitulate during the formation of a market bottom. Currently, the unrealized losses for these short-term holders have reached levels that are comparable to those seen during the FTX crash. In fact, after looking at charts of unrealized losses, it seems clear that during the crash of August 2024, unrealized losses among STHs were lower than what we are seeing now. When short-term holders are forced to sell at a loss, it often signals that the bottom is in and the price is about to go back up.

指出比特幣潛在底層的另一個指標是短期持有人（STH）的狀態。通常，這些持有人在過去六個月內收購了比特幣。他們經常在市場底部形成期間屈服。當前，這些短期持有人的未實現損失已達到與FTX崩潰中看到的水平相當的水平。實際上，在查看了未實現的損失圖表之後，很明顯，在2024年8月的墜機事件中，STH中未實現的損失低於我們現在所看到的。當短期持有人被迫虧本出售時，它通常表明底部是底部，而且價格即將恢復。

3. The Slowdown of Retail Selling

3。零售銷售放緩

Even though Bitcoin has declined from its peak of $109,000 to its current price of $84,000, retail investors are not leading the charge in selling. According to data from CryptoQuant, our smaller investors—that’s the term they use—are often referred to as shrimps. These are investors who hold less than 1 Bitcoin. They have been our primary sellers. In fact, on average, these shrimps have been selling about 480 Bitcoin daily. They haven’t been just holding; they have been selling. Meanwhile, our whales—investors holding over 1,000 Bitcoin—have only been selling around 70 Bitcoin per day. This disparity suggests that retail investors are leading the market to a possible capitulation point.

儘管比特幣從109,000美元的峰值下降到目前的84,000美元，但散戶投資者並沒有領導銷售費用。根據CryptoQuant的數據，我們的較小投資者（這是他們使用的術語）通常稱為蝦。這些是持有不到1比特幣的投資者。他們一直是我們的主要賣家。實際上，平均而言，這些蝦每天售出約480個比特幣。他們不只是抱著；他們一直在賣。同時，我們的鯨魚（持有1000多個比特幣的投資者）每天只售出約70個比特幣。這種差異表明，散戶投資者正在將市場帶到可能的投降點。

4. Coinbase Premium is Recovering.

4。 CoinbasePremium正在恢復。

Coinbase, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, has witnessed the revival of its Bitcoin premium after it bottomed out in February. The premium is the price difference of Bitcoin traded on Coinbase versus other exchanges. When the premium starts to rise, it is often seen as a sign that institutional investors are returning to the cryptocurrency market and that demand is rising. This recovery is also reminiscent of a similar pattern seen in Q3 2024 when Bitcoin began to move upward after hitting a bottom. We are also seeing fairly steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds), which also can only serve to increase demand for the asset.

Coinbase是最大的加密貨幣交易所之一，在2月觸底後，其比特幣溢價的複興。溢價是在Coinbase與其他交易所交易的比特幣的價格差異。當溢價開始上升時，通常被視為機構投資者正在返回加密貨幣市場的標誌，需求正在上升。這種恢復還讓人聯想到Q3 2024中比特幣在底部下方開始向上移動時看到的類似模式。我們還看到將相當穩定的流入到比特幣ETF（交易所交易基金）中，這也只能增加對資產的需求。

5. Whales Are Accumulating Aggressively

5。鯨魚正在積極積累

Right now, a select number of individuals are amassing vast amounts of supply. Indeed, a current on-chain analysis demonstrates that these individuals have been purchasing and stashing their assets at an aggressive rate.

目前，許多人正在積累大量供應。實際上，當前的鏈分析表明，這些人一直以積極的速度購買和藏匿其資產。

Maybe the clearest sign of a potential bottom is the behavior of whales, large investors who hold massive amounts of Bitcoin. Smart money typically sells at the top and buys at the bottom. Since Bitcoin’s price fell under $85,000, though, these large players have been on the buying side, accumulating aggressively. In just the past six weeks, they have picked up 100,000 BTC, worth a staggering $8.45 billion. Such accumulation—obviously a sign of confidence on the part of the buyers—is a sign not just of potential bottoming behavior but also of a likely uptrend in the relatively near future.

潛在底層的最明顯跡像是鯨魚的行為，大量投資者擁有大量比特幣。聰明的錢通常在頂部出售，並在底部購買。但是，由於比特幣的價格下跌低於85,000美元，因此這些大型玩家一直在購買方面，積累了積累。在過去的六周中，他們拿起了100,000 BTC，價值驚人的84.5億美元。這種積累 - 明顯地是買家信心的跡象 - 不僅表明了潛在的底部行為，而且是相對較遠的將來的上升趨勢。

The Macro uncertainty is at its highest level.

宏觀不確定性處於最高水平。

Liquidity is getting drained from the economy, and the FED is still in wait and watch mode.

流動性正在從經濟中耗盡，美聯儲仍處於等待和觀看模式。

Yet, BTC is trading above $84,

但是，BTC的交易超過84美元，