比特币（BTC）以13％的损失结束了Q1 2025，这是其自2018年以来最弱的季度

比特币（BTC）在2025年第一季度关闭，损失13％，标志着其自2018年以来的最弱第一季度。该缩减限制了由贸易紧张局势，鹰派经济数据和戈尔德（Gold）作为避风港的上诉驱动的波动时期。

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the first quarter of 2025 down 13%, marking its weakest Q1 performance since 2018. The drawdown capped a volatile period driven by trade tensions, hawkish economic data, and gold’s rising appeal as a safe haven.

比特币（BTC）在2025年第一季度关闭了13％，标志着其自2018年以来最弱的第一季度表现。该缩减限制了由贸易张力，鹰派经济数据和戈尔德（Gold）作为避风港的上升呼吁驱动的波动时期。

Macro pessimism deepened in late March as markets digested a fresh wave of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. April 2—dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump—will mark the rollout of broad new duties, which are set to affect up to $1.5 trillion in U.S. imports, according to macro research firm The Kobeissi Letter.

宏观悲观在3月下旬加深了，因为市场消化了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政府的新税率。 4月2日，特朗普的“解放日”将标志着扩大新职责的推出，这将影响到美国进口商品的1.5万亿美元。

“This is the biggest escalation of the trade war to date,” they added.

他们补充说：“这是迄今为止贸易战的最大升级。”

The move threatens to heighten investor pessimism, which had already been running high in March.

此举威胁到加剧了投资者的悲观主义，后者在三月份一直在高涨。

Trump’s aggressive trade stance has already triggered global retaliation. China, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico all announced or prepared countermeasures, deepening investor concerns over geopolitical instability.

特朗普的积极贸易立场已经引发了全球报复。中国，欧盟，加拿大和墨西哥都宣布或准备了对策，加深了投资者对地缘政治不稳定的关注。

PCE Inflation, Weak Sentiment Fuel Risk-off Mood

PCE通货膨胀，情绪较弱的燃料风险心情

The final blow to Q1 came on March 28, when core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data came in at 2.8%—above the expected 2.7%. The release sparked a broad risk-off move that dragged down equities and crypto alike.

第1季度的最终打击是在3月28日，当时核心个人消费支出（PCE）数据占2.8％，预期的2.7％。该版本引发了广泛的风险举动，拖延了股票和加密货币。

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each shed over 2% in response, erasing over $1 trillion in equity market cap in a single session. Bitcoin followed suit, retreating as macro headwinds outweighed buying pressure.

标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克省100分每种响应超过2％，在一次会议上删除了超过1万亿美元的股票市场上限。比特币紧随其后，随着巨大的逆风超过购买压力，退缩了。

According to the Conference Board, U.S. consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in March. The Expectations Index dropped to 65.2, its lowest since 2013. The number of Americans expecting stock prices to rise also fell sharply, from 47.5% in February to 37.4%.

根据会议委员会的说法，美国消费者的情绪在三月份连续第四个月失败了。预期指数下降到65.2，是自2013年以来最低的。美国人预期股价的数量也急剧上涨，从2月的47.5％降至37.4％。

This macro caution filtered into crypto markets. Ethereum (ETH) led losses with a 46.4% plunge, nearly matching its Q1 2018 performance. Bitcoin’s drawdown, while less severe, broke a two-year streak of Q1 gains—72% in 2023 and 69% in 2024.

这种宏观警告被过滤到加密货币市场。以太坊（ETH）以46.4％的跌幅领导损失，几乎与其2018年第一季度的表现相匹配。比特币的缩水虽然不太严重，但损失了两年的第1季度增长，在2023年为72％，2024年为69％。

BTC Chart Signals Remain Bearish Despite Long-term Confidence

尽管长期信心，BTC图表信号仍然看跌

Market structure offers little relief. Barchart noted that both Bitcoin and U.S. stocks face potential “death crosses,” as short-term moving averages approach bearish confirmations.

市场结构几乎没有缓解。 Barchart指出，比特币和美国股票都面临着潜在的“死亡十字”，因为短期移动平均方法是看跌。

“The odds are on the side of it getting filled quite soon,” trader CrypNuevo posted on X, referencing the downside wick on the four-hour BTC chart.

Trader Crypnuevo在X上张贴，“赔率就在很快就会填补了，”在四小时的BTC图表上引用了下行的灯芯。

On higher timeframes, fellow trader HTL-NL flagged a “bearish engulfing” weekly candle. “Let’s see if it plays out,” he added. Compression between the 1-day and 1-week 50-EMA also points to a pending aggressive move, CrypNuevo noted.

在较高的时间范围内，交易员HTL-NL每周举行一次“看跌式吞噬”蜡烛。他补充说：“让我们看看它是否发挥作用。” Crypnuevo指出，为期1天到1周之间的压缩也指出了尚待激进的举动。

Meanwhile, onchain analytics from CryptoQuant show the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio nearing its historical average. In early March, MVRV flashed a bearish “death cross,” followed by the current drawdown. Contributon Yonsei Dent wrote that while the overheated zone has cooled, “no definitive bottom signal has emerged yet.”

同时，来自加密素养的OnChain分析表明，已实现价值（MVRV）的市场价值接近其历史平均水平。 3月初，MVRV闪烁了看跌的“死亡十字”，随后是目前的缩减。 Doctruton Yonsesendent写道，尽管过热的区域已经冷却了，“尚未出现确定的底部信号。”

Coinbase Premium Holds Neutral as Long-term Sentiment Lingers

Coinbase Premium保持中立，因为长期情绪徘徊

The Coinbase Premium Index—measuring the spot price gap between Coinbase and Binance—held steady in a neutral zone.

Coinbase Premium指数（衡量共插基与二元之间的现货价格差距）在中立区稳定。

“Panic selling is decreasing,” CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Sunmoon posted, hinting that the worst may be behind. According to Glassnode, much of the recent selling pressure originated from investors holding BTC for over 155 days.

加密分析师Crypto Sunmoon说：“恐慌销售正在减少。”根据GlassNode的说法，最近的许多销售压力源自持有BTC的投资者超过155天。

What Comes Next? All Eyes on April Data and Powell

接下来是什么？所有人都关注四月数据和鲍威尔

The market now braces for a packed first week of April. Alongside Trump’s tariff rollout on April 2, traders await job openings data, jobless claims, and the critical nonfarm payrolls report.

现在，市场在四月的第一周挤压。除了4月2日特朗普的关税推广外，交易者等待着职位空缺数据，失业者索赔和关键的非农业薪资报告。

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on April 4 in Arlington, Virginia. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continues to price a rate cut in June, but Powell’s tone may shift expectations if inflation risks persist.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）定于4月4日在弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿发表讲话。 CME Group的FedWatch工具在6月份继续降低降低速度，但如果通货膨胀率持续存在，鲍威尔的语调可能会改变预期。

As Global Macro Investor’s Julien Bittel noted, policy tightening from Q4 2024 is only now starting to impact markets.

正如全球宏观投资者的朱利安·比特尔（Julien Bittel）所指出的那样，第4季度2024年第4季度的政策收紧直到现在才开始影响市场。

“There may still be a near-term chop or a final dip into the April 2 tariff announcement, but the path of least resistance after that feels higher.”

“在4月2日的关税公告中，可能仍然有近期的切碎或最终的倾向，但此后阻力最小的道路感觉更高。”

Until then, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to the crosswinds of policy, sentiment, and risk.

在此之前，比特币仍然容易受到政策，情感和风险的越界。