比特幣（BTC）以13％的損失結束了Q1 2025，這是其自2018年以來最弱的季度

比特幣（BTC）在2025年第一季度關閉，損失13％，標誌著其自2018年以來的最弱第一季度。該縮減限制了由貿易緊張局勢，鷹派經濟數據和戈爾德（Gold）作為避風港的上訴驅動的波動時期。

Bitcoin (BTC) closed the first quarter of 2025 down 13%, marking its weakest Q1 performance since 2018. The drawdown capped a volatile period driven by trade tensions, hawkish economic data, and gold’s rising appeal as a safe haven.

比特幣（BTC）在2025年第一季度關閉了13％，標誌著其自2018年以來最弱的第一季度表現。該縮減限制了由貿易張力，鷹派經濟數據和戈爾德（Gold）作為避風港的上升呼籲驅動的波動時期。

Macro pessimism deepened in late March as markets digested a fresh wave of tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. April 2—dubbed “Liberation Day” by Trump—will mark the rollout of broad new duties, which are set to affect up to $1.5 trillion in U.S. imports, according to macro research firm The Kobeissi Letter.

宏觀悲觀在3月下旬加深了，因為市場消化了美國總統唐納德·特朗普政府的新稅率。 4月2日，特朗普的“解放日”將標誌著擴大新職責的推出，這將影響到美國進口商品的1.5萬億美元。

“This is the biggest escalation of the trade war to date,” they added.

他們補充說：“這是迄今為止貿易戰的最大升級。”

The move threatens to heighten investor pessimism, which had already been running high in March.

此舉威脅到加劇了投資者的悲觀主義，後者在三月份一直在高漲。

Trump’s aggressive trade stance has already triggered global retaliation. China, the European Union, Canada, and Mexico all announced or prepared countermeasures, deepening investor concerns over geopolitical instability.

特朗普的積極貿易立場已經引發了全球報復。中國，歐盟，加拿大和墨西哥都宣布或準備了對策，加深了投資者對地緣政治不穩定的關注。

PCE Inflation, Weak Sentiment Fuel Risk-off Mood

PCE通貨膨脹，情緒較弱的燃料風險心情

The final blow to Q1 came on March 28, when core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data came in at 2.8%—above the expected 2.7%. The release sparked a broad risk-off move that dragged down equities and crypto alike.

第1季度的最終打擊是在3月28日，當時核心個人消費支出（PCE）數據佔2.8％，預期的2.7％。該版本引發了廣泛的風險舉動，拖延了股票和加密貨幣。

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each shed over 2% in response, erasing over $1 trillion in equity market cap in a single session. Bitcoin followed suit, retreating as macro headwinds outweighed buying pressure.

標準普爾500指數和納斯達克省100分每種響應超過2％，在一次會議上刪除了超過1萬億美元的股票市場上限。比特幣緊隨其後，隨著巨大的逆風超過購買壓力，退縮了。

According to the Conference Board, U.S. consumer sentiment fell for a fourth straight month in March. The Expectations Index dropped to 65.2, its lowest since 2013. The number of Americans expecting stock prices to rise also fell sharply, from 47.5% in February to 37.4%.

根據會議委員會的說法，美國消費者的情緒在三月份連續第四個月失敗了。預期指數下降到65.2，是自2013年以來最低的。美國人預期股價的數量也急劇上漲，從2月的47.5％降至37.4％。

This macro caution filtered into crypto markets. Ethereum (ETH) led losses with a 46.4% plunge, nearly matching its Q1 2018 performance. Bitcoin’s drawdown, while less severe, broke a two-year streak of Q1 gains—72% in 2023 and 69% in 2024.

這種宏觀警告被過濾到加密貨幣市場。以太坊（ETH）以46.4％的跌幅領導損失，幾乎與其2018年第一季度的表現相匹配。比特幣的縮水雖然不太嚴重，但損失了兩年的第1季度增長，在2023年為72％，2024年為69％。

BTC Chart Signals Remain Bearish Despite Long-term Confidence

儘管長期信心，BTC圖表信號仍然看跌

Market structure offers little relief. Barchart noted that both Bitcoin and U.S. stocks face potential “death crosses,” as short-term moving averages approach bearish confirmations.

市場結構幾乎沒有緩解。 Barchart指出，比特幣和美國股票都面臨著潛在的“死亡十字”，因為短期移動平均方法是看跌。

“The odds are on the side of it getting filled quite soon,” trader CrypNuevo posted on X, referencing the downside wick on the four-hour BTC chart.

Trader Crypnuevo在X上張貼，“賠率就在很快就會填補了，”在四小時的BTC圖表上引用了下行的燈芯。

On higher timeframes, fellow trader HTL-NL flagged a “bearish engulfing” weekly candle. “Let’s see if it plays out,” he added. Compression between the 1-day and 1-week 50-EMA also points to a pending aggressive move, CrypNuevo noted.

在較高的時間範圍內，交易員HTL-NL每週舉行一次“看跌式吞噬”蠟燭。他補充說：“讓我們看看它是否發揮作用。” Crypnuevo指出，為期1天到1週之間的壓縮也指出了尚待激進的舉動。

Meanwhile, onchain analytics from CryptoQuant show the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio nearing its historical average. In early March, MVRV flashed a bearish “death cross,” followed by the current drawdown. Contributon Yonsei Dent wrote that while the overheated zone has cooled, “no definitive bottom signal has emerged yet.”

同時，來自加密素養的OnChain分析表明，已實現價值（MVRV）的市場價值接近其歷史平均水平。 3月初，MVRV閃爍了看跌的“死亡十字”，隨後是目前的縮減。 Doctruton Yonsesendent寫道，儘管過熱的區域已經冷卻了，“尚未出現確定的底部信號。”

Coinbase Premium Holds Neutral as Long-term Sentiment Lingers

Coinbase Premium保持中立，因為長期情緒徘徊

The Coinbase Premium Index—measuring the spot price gap between Coinbase and Binance—held steady in a neutral zone.

Coinbase Premium指數（衡量共插基與二元之間的現貨價格差距）在中立區穩定。

“Panic selling is decreasing,” CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Sunmoon posted, hinting that the worst may be behind. According to Glassnode, much of the recent selling pressure originated from investors holding BTC for over 155 days.

加密分析師Crypto Sunmoon說：“恐慌銷售正在減少。”根據GlassNode的說法，最近的許多銷售壓力源自持有BTC的投資者超過155天。

What Comes Next? All Eyes on April Data and Powell

接下來是什麼？所有人都關註四月數據和鮑威爾

The market now braces for a packed first week of April. Alongside Trump’s tariff rollout on April 2, traders await job openings data, jobless claims, and the critical nonfarm payrolls report.

現在，市場在四月的第一周擠壓。除了4月2日特朗普的關稅推廣外，交易者等待著職位空缺數據，失業者索賠和關鍵的非農業薪資報告。

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on April 4 in Arlington, Virginia. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continues to price a rate cut in June, but Powell’s tone may shift expectations if inflation risks persist.

美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）定於4月4日在弗吉尼亞州阿靈頓發表講話。 CME Group的FedWatch工具在6月份繼續降低降低速度，但如果通貨膨脹率持續存在，鮑威爾的語調可能會改變預期。

As Global Macro Investor’s Julien Bittel noted, policy tightening from Q4 2024 is only now starting to impact markets.

正如全球宏觀投資者的朱利安·比特爾（Julien Bittel）所指出的那樣，第4季度2024年第4季度的政策收緊直到現在才開始影響市場。

“There may still be a near-term chop or a final dip into the April 2 tariff announcement, but the path of least resistance after that feels higher.”

“在4月2日的關稅公告中，可能仍然有近期的切碎或最終的傾向，但此後阻力最小的道路感覺更高。”

Until then, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to the crosswinds of policy, sentiment, and risk.

在此之前，比特幣仍然容易受到政策，情感和風險的越界。