比特币 (BTC) 今年上涨了 65%。你应该购买吗？

对于加密货币投资者来说，好消息是比特币（BTC 1.54%）今年上涨了 65%。目前价格为 70,000 美元，距离今年早些时候创下的历史高点 73,750 美元已经很近了。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has performed well in 2024, rising by 65% year to date. At its current price of $70,000, it's now within striking distance of its all-time high of $73,750, which it reached earlier this year.

比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）在 2024 年表现良好，今年迄今上涨了 65%。目前价格为 70,000 美元，距离今年早些时候达到的历史高点 73,750 美元已经很近了。

However, the cryptocurrency has largely underperformed expectations this year and has struggled to break through the $70,000 mark for several months now. As a result, some investors are taking a wait-and-see approach or moving their money elsewhere. Should you be doing the same, or is now the time to buy?

然而，这种加密货币今年的表现在很大程度上低于预期，并且几个月来一直难以突破 70,000 美元大关。因此，一些投资者采取观望态度或将资金转移到其他地方。您是否应该这样做，或者现在是购买的时候了？

Let's take a closer look at some of the key factors that could influence your decision.

让我们仔细看看一些可能影响您决定的关键因素。

Bitcoin and investor expectations

比特币和投资者的期望

To answer that question, it's important to understand how investor expectations for the digital coin have steadily ratcheted down since the beginning of the year. In January, investor excitement around the launch of the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) drove a huge rally that eventually pushed it to an all-time high of $73,750 in mid-March.

要回答这个问题，重要的是要了解自今年年初以来投资者对数字货币的预期如何稳步下降。 1 月份，投资者对新现货比特币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的推出感到兴奋，推动了比特币大幅上涨，最终在 3 月中旬将其推升至 73,750 美元的历史新高。

No surprises here, but at the time, analysts were predicting that Bitcoin would easily push through the $100,000 mark within months. What actually happened?

这并不奇怪，但当时分析师预测比特币将在几个月内轻松突破 10 万美元大关。究竟发生了什么？

Investor inflows into the spot ETFs began to slow, and they actually came to a halt in August, when the crypto market struggled with a "flash crash" that sent all cryptocurrencies lower.

投资者流入现货 ETF 的资金开始放缓，实际上在 8 月份就停止了，当时加密货币市场遭遇“闪电崩盘”，导致所有加密货币价格下跌。

And don't forget about this year's Bitcoin halving event. This, too, was supposed to send its price soaring. There have been three previous halvings -- in 2012, 2016, and 2020 -- and each one has sent the crypto skyrocketing to a new all-time high, so hopes were extremely high for the April 2024 halving.

不要忘记今年的比特币减半事件。这也应该会导致其价格飙升。之前已经有过三次减半——分别是 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年——每一次都让加密货币飙升至历史新高，因此人们对 2024 年 4 月的减半抱有极高的希望。

In 2020, for example, Bitcoin began its stratospheric ascent to $69,000 after the halving. But thus far, the 2024 halving has overpromised and underdelivered. It is now trading only 10% above where it was seven months ago, and many investors may have forgotten about the halving entirely.

例如，2020 年，比特币在减半后开始飙升至 69,000 美元。但到目前为止，2024 年减半的承诺过高，但兑现却不足。现在它的交易价格仅比七个月前高出 10%，许多投资者可能已经完全忘记了减半的事。

Bitcoin vs. other "risk on" assets

比特币与其他“风险”资产

It is also underperforming on a relative basis versus other popular cryptocurrencies. Meme coins Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, for example, are both up more than 70% for the year. Other meme coins are up as much as 1,000% for the year.

与其他流行的加密货币相比，它的相对表现也不佳。例如，Meme 币狗狗币 (Dogecoin) 和柴犬币 (Shiba Inu) 今年的涨幅均超过 70%。其他 Meme 币今年涨幅高达 1,000%。

Bitcoin is underperforming versus crypto stocks as well. For example, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), which many investors consider to be a proxy stock for the cryptocurrency, is up a staggering 244% this year. That's nearly four times the gains of the coin itself.

与加密货币股票相比，比特币的表现也不佳。例如，被许多投资者视为加密货币代理股票的 MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）今年上涨了 244%。这几乎是代币本身收益的四倍。

And don't forget about high-flying tech stocks like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which is up 190% this year. That's nearly three times the gains of Bitcoin. In short, investors have plenty of options if they want a high-risk, high-reward investment. The crypto is no longer the only game in town.

不要忘记像英伟达（纳斯达克股票代码：NVDA）这样飞速发展的科技股，该股今年上涨了 190%。这几乎是比特币收益的三倍。简而言之，如果投资者想要高风险、高回报的投资，他们有很多选择。加密货币不再是城里唯一的游戏。

Key catalysts ahead

未来的关键催化剂

The 2024 presidential election could end up being a big catalyst for Bitcoin, if it results in a revamped regulatory environment for crypto. For the first time ever, it became a campaign issue during a presidential election, and sentiment appears to be shifting in Washington, D.C., about how to regulate digital currency.

如果 2024 年总统选举能够带来加密货币监管环境的改善，那么它最终可能会成为比特币的一大催化剂。这是有史以来第一次成为总统选举期间的竞选问题，华盛顿特区关于如何监管​​数字货币的情绪似乎正在发生转变。

New crypto market regulation appears to have bipartisan support, and pro-Bitcoin policies are already being discussed at the highest levels. At the very least, 2025 might start with the replacement of current Securities and Exchange Commission head Gary Gensler with a more pro-crypto regulator.

新的加密货币市场监管似乎得到了两党的支持，支持比特币的政策已经在最高层进行讨论。至少，到 2025 年，现任证券交易委员会主席加里·根斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 可能会被一位更支持加密货币的监管机构取代。

Taking an even longer-term view, Bitcoin is steadily becoming a more important part of the global financial system. We're entering a new institutional era for it, in which large institutional investors are boosting their allocation, and big Wall Street firms are launching new investment products. Even if institutional investors decide to boost their crypto allocation by just 1%, it could lead to a tsunami of new money flooding into Bitcoin.

从更长远的角度来看，比特币正在稳步成为全球金融体系中更重要的一部分。我们正在进入一个新的机构时代，大型机构投资者正在增加其配置，大型华尔街公司正在推出新的投资产品。即使机构投资者决定将其加密货币配置仅增加 1%，也可能导致新资金海啸涌入比特币。

The long-term outlook

长期展望

If you are thinking about investing in Bitcoin, it's important to keep a long-term outlook. Yes, it has underperformed expectations this year. Yes, it is underperforming other "risk on" assets. And, yes, two catalysts --- the launch of the crypto ETFs and the halving -- have overpromised and underdelivered.

如果您正在考虑投资比特币，保持长期前景很重要。是的，它今年的表现低于预期。是的，它的表现逊于其他“风险”资产。是的，有两个催化剂——加密货币 ETF 的推出和减半——承诺过多但兑现不足。

However, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains unchanged. That's the reason some of the biggest names on Wall Street are still predicting that it could soar to a price of $1 million by the year

然而，比特币的长期前景保持不变。这就是为什么华尔街的一些大人物仍然预测它的价格今年可能会飙升至 100 万美元