比特幣 (BTC) 今年上漲了 65%。你應該購買嗎？

對於加密貨幣投資者來說，好消息是比特幣（BTC 1.54%）今年上漲了 65%。目前價格為 7 萬美元，距離今年稍早創下的歷史高點 73,750 美元已經很近了。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has performed well in 2024, rising by 65% year to date. At its current price of $70,000, it's now within striking distance of its all-time high of $73,750, which it reached earlier this year.

比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）在 2024 年表現良好，今年迄今上漲了 65%。目前價格為 70,000 美元，距離今年早些時候達到的歷史高點 73,750 美元已經很近了。

However, the cryptocurrency has largely underperformed expectations this year and has struggled to break through the $70,000 mark for several months now. As a result, some investors are taking a wait-and-see approach or moving their money elsewhere. Should you be doing the same, or is now the time to buy?

然而，這種加密貨幣今年的表現很大程度上低於預期，幾個月來一直難以突破 7 萬美元大關。因此，一些投資者採取觀望態度或將資金轉移到其他地方。您是否應該這樣做，或者現在是購買的時候了？

Let's take a closer look at some of the key factors that could influence your decision.

讓我們仔細看看一些可能影響您決定的關鍵因素。

Bitcoin and investor expectations

比特幣和投資者的期望

To answer that question, it's important to understand how investor expectations for the digital coin have steadily ratcheted down since the beginning of the year. In January, investor excitement around the launch of the new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) drove a huge rally that eventually pushed it to an all-time high of $73,750 in mid-March.

要回答這個問題，重要的是要了解自今年年初以來投資者對數位貨幣的預期如何穩定下降。 1 月份，投資者對新現貨比特幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的推出感到興奮，推動了比特幣大幅上漲，最終在 3 月中旬將其推升至 73,750 美元的歷史新高。

No surprises here, but at the time, analysts were predicting that Bitcoin would easily push through the $100,000 mark within months. What actually happened?

這並不奇怪，但當時分析師預測比特幣將在幾個月內輕鬆突破 10 萬美元大關。究竟發生了什麼事？

Investor inflows into the spot ETFs began to slow, and they actually came to a halt in August, when the crypto market struggled with a "flash crash" that sent all cryptocurrencies lower.

投資者流入現貨 ETF 的資金開始放緩，實際上在 8 月就停止了，當時加密貨幣市場遭遇“閃電崩盤”，導致所有加密貨幣價格下跌。

And don't forget about this year's Bitcoin halving event. This, too, was supposed to send its price soaring. There have been three previous halvings -- in 2012, 2016, and 2020 -- and each one has sent the crypto skyrocketing to a new all-time high, so hopes were extremely high for the April 2024 halving.

不要忘記今年的比特幣減半事件。這也應該會導致其價格飆升。之前已經有三次減半——分別是 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年——每一次都讓加密貨幣飆升至歷史新高，因此人們對 2024 年 4 月的減半抱有極高的希望。

In 2020, for example, Bitcoin began its stratospheric ascent to $69,000 after the halving. But thus far, the 2024 halving has overpromised and underdelivered. It is now trading only 10% above where it was seven months ago, and many investors may have forgotten about the halving entirely.

例如，2020 年，比特幣在減半後開始飆升至 69,000 美元。但到目前為止，2024 年減半的承諾過高，但兌現卻不足。現在它的交易價格只比七個月前高出 10%，許多投資者可能已經完全忘記了減半的事。

Bitcoin vs. other "risk on" assets

比特幣與其他「風險」資產

It is also underperforming on a relative basis versus other popular cryptocurrencies. Meme coins Dogecoin and Shiba Inu, for example, are both up more than 70% for the year. Other meme coins are up as much as 1,000% for the year.

與其他流行的加密貨幣相比，它的相對錶現也不佳。例如，Meme 幣狗狗幣 (Dogecoin) 和柴犬幣 (Shiba Inu) 今年的漲幅均超過 70%。其他 Meme 幣今年漲幅高達 1,000%。

Bitcoin is underperforming versus crypto stocks as well. For example, MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), which many investors consider to be a proxy stock for the cryptocurrency, is up a staggering 244% this year. That's nearly four times the gains of the coin itself.

與加密貨幣股票相比，比特幣的表現也不佳。例如，MicroStrategy（NASDAQ：MSTR）被許多投資者視為加密貨幣的代表股票，今年股價上漲了 244%。這幾乎是代幣本身收益的四倍。

And don't forget about high-flying tech stocks like Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which is up 190% this year. That's nearly three times the gains of Bitcoin. In short, investors have plenty of options if they want a high-risk, high-reward investment. The crypto is no longer the only game in town.

不要忘記像英偉達（納斯達克股票代碼：NVDA）這樣飛速發展的科技股，該股今年上漲了 190%。這幾乎是比特幣收益的三倍。簡而言之，如果投資者想要高風險、高回報的投資，他們有很多選擇。加密貨幣不再是城裡唯一的遊戲。

Key catalysts ahead

未來的關鍵催化劑

The 2024 presidential election could end up being a big catalyst for Bitcoin, if it results in a revamped regulatory environment for crypto. For the first time ever, it became a campaign issue during a presidential election, and sentiment appears to be shifting in Washington, D.C., about how to regulate digital currency.

如果 2024 年總統大選能夠帶來加密貨幣監管環境的改善，那麼它最終可能會成為比特幣的一大催化劑。這是有史以​​來第一次成為總統選舉期間的競選議題，華盛頓特區關於如何監管數位貨幣的情緒似乎正在轉變。

New crypto market regulation appears to have bipartisan support, and pro-Bitcoin policies are already being discussed at the highest levels. At the very least, 2025 might start with the replacement of current Securities and Exchange Commission head Gary Gensler with a more pro-crypto regulator.

新的加密貨幣市場監管似乎得到了兩黨的支持，支持比特幣的政策已經在最高層討論。至少，到 2025 年，現任證券交易委員會主席加里·根斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 可能會被一位更支持加密貨幣的監管機構取代。

Taking an even longer-term view, Bitcoin is steadily becoming a more important part of the global financial system. We're entering a new institutional era for it, in which large institutional investors are boosting their allocation, and big Wall Street firms are launching new investment products. Even if institutional investors decide to boost their crypto allocation by just 1%, it could lead to a tsunami of new money flooding into Bitcoin.

從更長遠的角度來看，比特幣正在穩步成為全球金融體系中更重要的一部分。我們正在進入一個新的機構時代，大型機構投資者正在增加其配置，大型華爾街公司正在推出新的投資產品。即使機構投資者決定將加密貨幣配置僅增加 1%，也可能導致新資金海嘯湧入比特幣。

The long-term outlook

長期展望

If you are thinking about investing in Bitcoin, it's important to keep a long-term outlook. Yes, it has underperformed expectations this year. Yes, it is underperforming other "risk on" assets. And, yes, two catalysts --- the launch of the crypto ETFs and the halving -- have overpromised and underdelivered.

如果您正在考慮投資比特幣，保持長期前景很重要。是的，它今年的表現低於預期。是的，它的表現遜於其他「風險」資產。是的，有兩個催化劑——加密貨幣 ETF 的推出和減半——承諾過多但兌現不足。

However, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains unchanged. That's the reason some of the biggest names on Wall Street are still predicting that it could soar to a price of $1 million by the year

然而，比特幣的長期前景保持不變。這就是為什麼華爾街的一些大人物仍然預測它的價格今年可能會飆升至 100 萬美元