比特币（BTC）多头要小心：中国的刺激措施可能已经失去了魔力

BCA Research表示，产生大量看涨的“信贷冲动”现在对中国来说是一项艰巨的任务。

China unveiled a raft of stimulus measures recently, the biggest since 2008, sparking a rally in Chinese stocks and risk assets worldwide, including bitcoin.

中国最近推出了一系列自2008年以来最大规模的刺激措施，引发了中国股市和包括比特币在内的全球风险资产的上涨。

Most crypto analysts expect the Chinese stimulus and the Fed rate cuts to propel bitcoin (BTC) to $100,000 in the coming months.

大多数加密货币分析师预计，中国的刺激措施和美联储降息将在未来几个月内推动比特币 (BTC) 升至 10 万美元。

However, BCA Research argues the risk-on rally may be short-lived as China’s latest stimulus falls short of generating large bullish “credit impulses” as it did in the past two decades, including in 2015.

然而，BCA Research 认为，风险偏好的反弹可能是短暂的，因为中国最新的刺激措施未能像过去二十年（包括 2015 年）那样产生大规模的看涨“信贷冲动”。

Credit impulse refers to the flow of new credit issued through loans and other debt instruments as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). Since the 2008 crash, analysts have closely followed China’s credit impulse as a leading indicator of economic growth and risk-on rally worldwide. Fresh upswings in the indicator have historically coincided with bitcoin bear market bottoms.

信贷冲动是指通过贷款和其他债务工具发行的新信贷流量占国内生产总值（GDP）的百分比。自2008年崩盘以来，分析师一直密切关注中国的信贷冲动，将其视为全球经济增长和风险偏好反弹的领先指标。从历史上看，该指标的新一轮上涨与比特币熊市底部同时发生。

The credit impulse peaked at 15.5 trillion yuan during the last major bullish easing cycle dated 2015, equating to 15% of the GDP. Back then, the Chinese stocks, represented by the CSI 300, more than doubled in six months and BTC found a bottom near $100, turning higher for a two-year bull run that peaked near $20,000 in December 2017.

在 2015 年上一次主要看涨宽松周期中，信贷冲动达到峰值 15.5 万亿元人民币，相当于 GDP 的 15%。当时，以沪深 300 指数为代表的中国股市在六个月内上涨了一倍多，比特币在 100 美元附近触底，并在两年的牛市中走高，并于 2017 年 12 月达到接近 20,000 美元的峰值。

Since then, China’s economy has doubled in terms of nominal GDP, which means the credit impulse during the current cycle needs to peak at 27 trillion yuan to have a similar bullish impact on the economy and markets.

此后，中国经济名义GDP翻了一番，这意味着本周期的信贷冲动需要达到27万亿元人民币的峰值才能对经济和市场产生类似的利多影响。

“However, the most recent peak in the credit impulse was less than CNY5trn. So, to match the 2015 episode, the latest measures would need an amplitude five times greater than the most recent peak,” BCA Research stated in a client note on Oct. 2.

“然而，最近一次信贷冲动的峰值还不到 5 万元人民币。因此，为了匹配 2015 年的情况，最新的措施需要比最近峰值大五倍的幅度，”BCA Research 在 10 月 2 日的一份客户报告中表示。

Reversing the downtrend in the credit impulse might be easier said than done because the factors that drove it higher initially, such as the housing market boom, are no longer present.

扭转信贷冲动的下降趋势可能说起来容易做起来难，因为最初推动信贷冲动走高的因素，例如房地产市场繁荣，已经不复存在。

“Through 2000-2020, when China’s housing boom was in full swing, it was possible to channel the exponential credit curve into the housing and construction boom, But now, absent an alternative destination for the productive use of credit of the same magnitude, it will be difficult to generate those same monster credit impulses,” BCA's analysts noted.

“从2000年到2020年，当中国房地产热潮如火如荼时，有可能将指数信贷曲线引入住房和建筑业热潮，但现在，由于缺乏同等规模信贷的生产性使用的替代目的地，将很难产生同样巨大的信贷冲动，”BCA 的分析师指出。

The credit impulse dropped to a record low of 1.5 trillion yuan in the second quarter of 2022 as the government pursued a zero-COVID policy and a deleveraging campaign in the property sector. The credit impulse recovered to 4.8 trillion yuan in the third quarter, mainly due to a rebound in bank lending.

随着政府推行“零新冠”政策和房地产行业去杠杆化行动，2022年第二季度信贷冲动降至1.5万亿元人民币的历史新低。三季度信贷冲动恢复至4.8万亿元，主要得益于银行贷款回升。

The recent stimulus measures, including infrastructure spending, tax cuts and subsidies for homebuyers, are expected to push the credit impulse to 6 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter, according to BCA.

BCA表示，近期的刺激措施，包括基础设施支出、减税和购房补贴等，预计将在第四季度将信贷冲动推至6万亿元人民币。

“This is up from CNY4.8trn in Q3, but still well below the CNY15.5trn peak during the last major easing cycle, which began in 2015,” the analysts wrote, adding that the credit impulse would need to peak at 27 trillion yuan to have a similar impact on the economy as in 2015.

分析师写道：“这高于第三季度的 4.8 万亿人民币，但仍远低于 2015 年开始的上一个主要宽松周期中 15.5 万亿人民币的峰值。”并补充说，信贷冲动需要达到 27 万亿元人民币的峰值对经济的影响与 2015 年类似。

“This seems unlikely given the smaller role of credit in the Chinese economy today and the government’s desire to prevent another property bubble,” they noted.

他们指出：“鉴于信贷在当今中国经济中的作用较小，而且政府希望防止再次出现房地产泡沫，这似乎不太可能。”

The credit impulse is a measure of the flow of new credit issued through loans and other debt instruments as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). It is a key indicator of economic activity and financial conditions in China.

信贷冲动衡量通过贷款和其他债务工具发行的新信贷流量占国内生产总值（GDP）的百分比。它是中国经济活动和金融状况的关键指标。

A high credit impulse typically indicates strong economic growth and a risk-on environment in financial markets. Conversely, a low credit impulse suggests weak economic activity and a flight to safety in markets.

高信贷冲动通常表明强劲的经济增长和金融市场的风险环境。相反，低信贷冲动表明经济活动疲软，人们纷纷逃往安全的市场。

Bitcoin has historically shown a positive correlation with the credit impulse, as traders and investors tend to flock to the cryptocurrency during periods of economic optimism and financial market rallies.

从历史上看，比特币与信贷冲动呈正相关，因为交易者和投资者往往在经济乐观和金融市场反弹期间涌向加密货币。

The credit impulse peaked at 15.5 trillion yuan during the last major easing cycle, which began in 2015. During this period, Chinese stocks, as represented by the CSI 300 index, more than doubled in six months and BTC found a bottom near $100, setting the stage for a two-year bull run that culminated in a peak price of nearly $20,000 in December 2017.

在 2015 年开始的上一次主要宽松周期中，信贷冲动达到了 15.5 万亿元人民币的峰值。在此期间，以沪深 300 指数为代表的中国股票在六个月内翻了一番多，比特币在 100 美元附近触底，创下了历史新高。这是两年牛市的阶段，最终在 2017 年 12 月达到近 20,000 美元的峰值。

Since then, China’s economy has doubled in nominal GDP terms, which means that the credit impulse during the current cycle needs to peak at 27 trillion yuan to have a similar bullish impact on the economy and markets, according to BCA.

BCA表示，此后，中国经济按名义GDP计算翻了一番，这意味着当前周期的信贷冲动需要达到27万亿元人民币的峰值才能对经济和市场产生类似的看涨影响。

“This seems unlikely given the smaller role of credit in the Chinese economy today and the government’s desire to prevent another property bubble,” the analysts concluded.

分析师总结道：“鉴于信贷在当今中国经济中的作用较小，而且政府希望防止再次出现房地产泡沫，这似乎不太可能。”