比特幣（BTC）多頭要小心：中國的刺激措施可能已經失​​去了魔力

BCA Research表示，產生大量看漲的「信貸衝動」現在對中國來說是一項艱鉅的任務。

China unveiled a raft of stimulus measures recently, the biggest since 2008, sparking a rally in Chinese stocks and risk assets worldwide, including bitcoin.

中國最近推出了一系列自2008年以來最大規模的刺激措施，引發了中國股市和包括比特幣在內的全球風險資產的上漲。

Most crypto analysts expect the Chinese stimulus and the Fed rate cuts to propel bitcoin (BTC) to $100,000 in the coming months.

大多數加密貨幣分析師預計，中國的刺激措施和聯準會降息將在未來幾個月內推動比特幣 (BTC) 升至 10 萬美元。

However, BCA Research argues the risk-on rally may be short-lived as China’s latest stimulus falls short of generating large bullish “credit impulses” as it did in the past two decades, including in 2015.

然而，BCA Research 認為，風險偏好的反彈可能是短暫的，因為中國最新的刺激措施未能像過去二十年（包括 2015 年）那樣產生大規模的看漲「信貸衝動」。

Credit impulse refers to the flow of new credit issued through loans and other debt instruments as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). Since the 2008 crash, analysts have closely followed China’s credit impulse as a leading indicator of economic growth and risk-on rally worldwide. Fresh upswings in the indicator have historically coincided with bitcoin bear market bottoms.

信貸衝動是指透過貸款和其他債務工具發行的新信貸流量佔國內生產毛額（GDP）的百分比。自2008年崩盤以來，分析師一直密切關注中國的信貸衝動，將其視為全球經濟成長和風險偏好反彈的領先指標。從歷史上看，該指標的新一輪上漲與比特幣熊市底部同時發生。

The credit impulse peaked at 15.5 trillion yuan during the last major bullish easing cycle dated 2015, equating to 15% of the GDP. Back then, the Chinese stocks, represented by the CSI 300, more than doubled in six months and BTC found a bottom near $100, turning higher for a two-year bull run that peaked near $20,000 in December 2017.

在 2015 年上一次主要看漲寬鬆週期中，信貸衝動達到高峰 15.5 兆元，相當於 GDP 的 15%。當時，以滬深300 指數為代表的中國股市在六個月內上漲了一倍多，比特幣在100 美元附近觸底，並在兩年的牛市中走高，並於2017 年12 月達到接近20,000美元的峰值。

Since then, China’s economy has doubled in terms of nominal GDP, which means the credit impulse during the current cycle needs to peak at 27 trillion yuan to have a similar bullish impact on the economy and markets.

此後，中國經濟名目GDP翻了一番，這意味著本週期的信貸衝動需要達到27兆元人民幣的高峰才能對經濟和市場產生類似的利多影響。

“However, the most recent peak in the credit impulse was less than CNY5trn. So, to match the 2015 episode, the latest measures would need an amplitude five times greater than the most recent peak,” BCA Research stated in a client note on Oct. 2.

「然而，最近一次信貸衝動的高峰還不到 5 萬元。因此，為了匹配 2015 年的情況，最新的措施需要比最近高峰大五倍的幅度，」BCA Research 在 10 月 2 日的客戶報告中表示。

Reversing the downtrend in the credit impulse might be easier said than done because the factors that drove it higher initially, such as the housing market boom, are no longer present.

扭轉信貸衝動的下降趨勢可能說起來容易做起來難，因為最初推動信貸衝動走高的因素，例如房地產市場繁榮，已經不存在。

“Through 2000-2020, when China’s housing boom was in full swing, it was possible to channel the exponential credit curve into the housing and construction boom, But now, absent an alternative destination for the productive use of credit of the same magnitude, it will be difficult to generate those same monster credit impulses,” BCA's analysts noted.

「從2000年到2020年，當中國房地產熱潮如火如荼時，有可能將指數信貸曲線引入住房和建築業熱潮，但現在，由於缺乏同等規模信貸的生產性使用的替代目的地，將很難產生同樣巨大的信貸衝動，」BCA 的分析師指出。

The credit impulse dropped to a record low of 1.5 trillion yuan in the second quarter of 2022 as the government pursued a zero-COVID policy and a deleveraging campaign in the property sector. The credit impulse recovered to 4.8 trillion yuan in the third quarter, mainly due to a rebound in bank lending.

隨著政府推行「零新冠」政策和房地產產業去槓桿化行動，2022年第二季信貸衝動降至1.5兆元人民幣的歷史新低。第三季信貸衝動恢復至4.8兆元，主要得益於銀行貸款回升。

The recent stimulus measures, including infrastructure spending, tax cuts and subsidies for homebuyers, are expected to push the credit impulse to 6 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter, according to BCA.

BCA表示，近期的刺激措施，包括基礎設施支出、減稅和購屋補貼等，預計將在第四季將信貸衝動推至6兆元。

“This is up from CNY4.8trn in Q3, but still well below the CNY15.5trn peak during the last major easing cycle, which began in 2015,” the analysts wrote, adding that the credit impulse would need to peak at 27 trillion yuan to have a similar impact on the economy as in 2015.

分析師寫道：「這高於第三季的4.8 兆人民幣，但仍遠低於2015 年開始的上一個主要寬鬆週期中15.5 兆人民幣的峰值。」並補充說，信貸衝動需要達到27兆元人民幣的高峰對經濟的影響與 2015 年類似。

“This seems unlikely given the smaller role of credit in the Chinese economy today and the government’s desire to prevent another property bubble,” they noted.

他們指出：“鑑於信貸在當今中國經濟中的作用較小，而且政府希望防止再次出現房地產泡沫，這似乎不太可能。”

The credit impulse is a measure of the flow of new credit issued through loans and other debt instruments as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). It is a key indicator of economic activity and financial conditions in China.

信貸衝動衡量透過貸款和其他債務工具發行的新信貸流量佔國內生產毛額（GDP）的百分比。它是中國經濟活動和金融狀況的關鍵指標。

A high credit impulse typically indicates strong economic growth and a risk-on environment in financial markets. Conversely, a low credit impulse suggests weak economic activity and a flight to safety in markets.

高信貸衝動通常表示強勁的經濟成長和金融市場的風險環境。相反，低信貸衝動顯示經濟活動疲軟，人們紛紛逃往安全的市場。

Bitcoin has historically shown a positive correlation with the credit impulse, as traders and investors tend to flock to the cryptocurrency during periods of economic optimism and financial market rallies.

從歷史上看，比特幣與信貸衝動呈正相關，因為交易者和投資者往往在經濟樂觀和金融市場反彈期間湧向加密貨幣。

The credit impulse peaked at 15.5 trillion yuan during the last major easing cycle, which began in 2015. During this period, Chinese stocks, as represented by the CSI 300 index, more than doubled in six months and BTC found a bottom near $100, setting the stage for a two-year bull run that culminated in a peak price of nearly $20,000 in December 2017.

在2015 年開始的上一次主要寬鬆週期中，信貸衝動達到了15.5 兆元人民幣的峰值。幣在100 美元附近觸底，創下了歷史新高。

Since then, China’s economy has doubled in nominal GDP terms, which means that the credit impulse during the current cycle needs to peak at 27 trillion yuan to have a similar bullish impact on the economy and markets, according to BCA.

BCA表示，此後，中國經濟以名目GDP計算翻了一番，這意味著當前週期的信貸衝動需要達到27兆元人民幣的高峰才能對經濟和市場產生類似的看漲影響。

“This seems unlikely given the smaller role of credit in the Chinese economy today and the government’s desire to prevent another property bubble,” the analysts concluded.

分析師總結道：“鑑於信貸在當今中國經濟中的作用較小，而且政府希望防止再次出現房地產泡沫，這似乎不太可能。”