比特币在 2024 年的惊人表现及其突破 10 万美元的价格吸引了全世界的关注。这就是为什么一位真正的价值投资者看好这种不稳定的数字资产的原因。

特许金融分析师 Taesik Yoon 担任《福布斯特殊情况调查》和《福布斯投资者》编辑超过十四年。您可以通过 paxorion1985@gmail.com 联系他。

After a breathtaking 2024 performance that saw bitcoin soar past $100,000, making many early investors a lot of money, I thought I’d share why I—a self-proclaimed old-school value investor who had avoided hype for more than two decades—kept increasing my exposure to an asset that I believe has no actual intrinsic value. Simply put, my sons believe it does.

2024 年，比特币的表现令人惊叹，飙升至 10 万美元，让许多早期投资者赚了很多钱，我想我应该分享一下为什么我——一个自称老派价值投资者的人，二十多年来一直避免炒作——继续坚持投资。增加我对我认为没有实际内在价值的资产的投资。简而言之，我的儿子们相信确实如此。

My oldest boy first asked me if I owned any bitcoin soon after he began first grade in the COVID-riddled 2020 school year. Even with all of the social distancing protocols in place, he’d heard one of his classmates bragging about how much money his dad made from bitcoin and wanted to know if I owned any too. I told him I didn’t and dismissed it as junk. Despite this, he still wanted to buy some anyway. He was six at the time.

在充满新冠疫情的 2020 学年，我的大儿子上一年级后不久，他第一次问我是否拥有比特币。即使所有的社交距离协议都已到位，他还是听到他的一位同学吹嘘他的父亲从比特币中赚了多少钱，并想知道我是否也拥有比特币。我告诉他我没有，并将其视为垃圾。尽管如此，他还是想买一些。当时他六岁。

It was then I realized that bitcoin is older than both of my sons. This means it’s been around their entire lives. More importantly, to them, it’s something that’s always had value. And this notion has only gained steam since then. Indeed, every day almost without fail my now ten-year-old checks the price of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which he currently owns ten shares of. He purchased this with the savings he’d accumulated over the years because to him, he’d rather have them than cash. I also believe my increasingly greater ownership of it provided legitimacy in his eyes that bitcoin had real worth ( despite the fact that he was the catalyst for my speculation in the cryptocurrency.)

就在那时我意识到比特币比我的两个儿子都大。这意味着它一直伴随着他们的一生。更重要的是，对他们来说，这是始终有价值的东西。从那时起，这个想法才开始流行起来。事实上，我现在十岁的孩子几乎每天都会检查灰度比特币信托（GBTC）的价格，他目前拥有该公司的 10 股。他用多年来积累的积蓄购买了这个，因为对他来说，他宁愿拥有它们而不是现金。我还相信，我对比特币的日益增加的所有权在他眼中提供了合法性，即比特币具有真正的价值（尽管事实上他是我对加密货币投机的催化剂。）

Right now, it’s my generation and the one before it who probably have the most accumulated wealth of any. I believe this is among the biggest reasons why gold prices surged last year to new all-time highs. We see it as a safe-haven asset that holds its value while also being considered a good hedge against inflation because that’s what it’s been our entire lives. But the only gold my older son knows is what’s around his neck. That gold chain he’s now wearing belonged to his grandpa, purchased roughly 40 years ago for the same reason my boy now owns bitcoin—because to him gold always had value and always would. Sadly, my dad’s no longer with us. And when my generation is all gone, it’ll be our kids who’ll dictate what does and doesn’t have value.

现在，我这一代和前一代可能是最积累财富的一代。我相信这是去年金价飙升至历史新高的最大原因之一。我们将其视为一种避险资产，可以保值，同时也被认为是对冲通胀的良好工具，因为这就是我们一生的经历。但我的大儿子唯一知道的金子就是他脖子上的金子。他现在佩戴的那条金链是他爷爷的，大约 40 年前购买的，原因与我儿子现在拥有比特币的原因相同——因为对他来说，黄金一直有价值，而且永远如此。遗憾的是，我的父亲已经不在我们身边了。当我们这一代人都去世后，将由我们的孩子来决定什么有价值、什么没有价值。

Some will argue that comparing bitcoin to gold isn’t fair since the latter is a physical asset that does have intrinsic value from its use in numerous technology products, including semiconductors, and other industrial applications. But let’s be real here, the latter only amounts to about 7% of the total gold mined. The rest of the gold produced around the world is used to make jewelry or coins and bullion. And I’d argue that the gold used in jewelry, which is about as discretionary a purchase as they come, is not only desirable because it’s pretty, but because of its perceived scarcity. That’s also a big reason why gold is universally accepted as a store of value. More importantly, there has never been a time in my life when gold didn’t have value way above its actual intrinsic worth.

一些人会认为，将比特币与黄金进行比较是不公平的，因为后者是一种实物资产，在半导体和其他工业应用等众多技术产品中的使用确实具有内在价值。但说实话，后者仅占黄金开采总量的 7% 左右。世界各地生产的其余黄金用于制造珠宝或硬币和金条。我认为，珠宝中使用的黄金几乎是可随意购买的，不仅因为它很漂亮，而且因为它被认为是稀缺的。这也是黄金被普遍接受为价值储存手段的一个重要原因。更重要的是，在我的一生中，黄金的价值从来都没有远高于其实际的内在价值。

The same is true of my boys and bitcoin. That is to say, we are a product of the times we grew up in. I was raised in a mostly analog world. I’m used to value being associated with something that’s tangible. Music and movies were delivered through physical media like cassette tapes, VHS, CDs and DVDs. Heck, I’m even old enough to remember the 8-Track and Betamax. My boys have no idea what these things are. For them, streaming from the cloud is as natural as renting videos from Blockbuster were to me and my friends. They’re part of a digital generation where everything comes from nothing. Bitcoin doesn’t need a physical presence when those most likely to determine its value in the future doesn’t need it to (or even want it to).

我的孩子们和比特币也是如此。也就是说，我们是我们成长的时代的产物。我是在一个主要是模拟的世界中长大的。我习惯于重视与有形事物的联系。音乐和电影是通过盒式磁带、VHS、CD 和 DVD 等物理媒体传送的。哎呀，我什至还记得 8-Track 和 Betamax。我的孩子们不知道这些东西是什么。对于他们来说，从云端进行流媒体播放就像从百视达租用视频对我和我的朋友来说一样自然。他们是数字一代的一部分，一切都是从无到有。当那些最有可能在未来决定其价值的人不需要（甚至不希望）比特币时，比特币就不需要物理存在。

Be Willing To Lose It All

愿意失去一切

All that said, the crypto market still has many unknowns and carries plenty of risk. More than anything else, the number of cryptocurrencies need to drop by like 99.9%. Going back to the comparison to gold, there are 94 metals on the periodic table of elements. But only three of these are really viewed and accepted as a store of value—gold, silver and platinum. By comparison, there are currently about 270 different cryptocurrencies being traded on the popular crypto trading platform Coinbase and nearly 18,000(!) that it tracks overall.

话虽如此，加密货币市场仍然存在许多未知因素，并且存在大量风险。最重要的是，加密货币的数量需要减少 99.9%。回到与黄金的比较，元素周期表中有 94 种金属。但其中只有三种真正被视为和接受为价值储存手段：黄金、白银和铂金。相比之下，目前流行的加密货币交易平台 Coinbase 上交易的加密货币约有 270 种，总体跟踪的加密货币接近 18,000（！）。

It’s no coincidence that all my crypto holdings are in bitcoin with a small allocation in ether. To me, these have gained the most legitimacy among the general public and have become entrenched enough in the world view that they will effectively become the

我持有的所有加密货币都是比特币，其中少量是以太币，这并非巧合。对我来说，这些在公众中获得了最大的合法性，并且在世界观中已经根深蒂固，他们将有效地成为