比特幣在 2024 年的驚人表現及其突破 10 萬美元的價格吸引了全世界的注意。這就是為什麼一位真正的價值投資者看好這種不穩定的數位資產的原因。

特許金融分析師 Taesik Yoon 擔任《富比士特殊情況調查》和《富比士》投資者》編輯超過十四年。您可以透過 paxorion1985@gmail.com 聯繫他。

After a breathtaking 2024 performance that saw bitcoin soar past $100,000, making many early investors a lot of money, I thought I’d share why I—a self-proclaimed old-school value investor who had avoided hype for more than two decades—kept increasing my exposure to an asset that I believe has no actual intrinsic value. Simply put, my sons believe it does.

2024 年，比特幣的表現令人驚嘆，飆升至10 萬美元，讓許多早期投資者賺了很多錢，我想我應該分享為什麼我——一個自稱老派價值投資者的人，二十多年來一直避免炒作－繼續堅持投資。簡而言之，我的兒子們相信確實如此。

My oldest boy first asked me if I owned any bitcoin soon after he began first grade in the COVID-riddled 2020 school year. Even with all of the social distancing protocols in place, he’d heard one of his classmates bragging about how much money his dad made from bitcoin and wanted to know if I owned any too. I told him I didn’t and dismissed it as junk. Despite this, he still wanted to buy some anyway. He was six at the time.

在充滿新冠疫情的 2020 學年，我的大兒子上一年級後不久，他第一次問我是否擁有比特幣。即使所有的社交距離協議都已到位，他還是聽到他的一位同學吹噓他的父親從比特幣中賺了多少錢，並想知道我是否也擁有比特幣。我告訴他我沒有，並將其視為垃圾。儘管如此，他還是想買一些。當時他六歲。

It was then I realized that bitcoin is older than both of my sons. This means it’s been around their entire lives. More importantly, to them, it’s something that’s always had value. And this notion has only gained steam since then. Indeed, every day almost without fail my now ten-year-old checks the price of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), which he currently owns ten shares of. He purchased this with the savings he’d accumulated over the years because to him, he’d rather have them than cash. I also believe my increasingly greater ownership of it provided legitimacy in his eyes that bitcoin had real worth ( despite the fact that he was the catalyst for my speculation in the cryptocurrency.)

就在那時我意識到比特幣比我的兩個兒子都大。這意味著它一直伴隨著他們的一生。更重要的是，對他們來說，這是始終有價值的東西。從那時起，這個想法才開始流行起來。事實上，我現在十歲的孩子幾乎每天都會檢查灰階比特幣信託（GBTC）的價格，他目前擁有該公司的 10 股。他用多年來積累的積蓄購買了這個，因為對他來說，他寧願擁有它們而不是現金。我還相信，我對比特幣的日益增加的所有權在他眼中提供了合法性，即比特幣具有真正的價值（儘管事實上他是我對加密貨幣投機的催化劑。）

Right now, it’s my generation and the one before it who probably have the most accumulated wealth of any. I believe this is among the biggest reasons why gold prices surged last year to new all-time highs. We see it as a safe-haven asset that holds its value while also being considered a good hedge against inflation because that’s what it’s been our entire lives. But the only gold my older son knows is what’s around his neck. That gold chain he’s now wearing belonged to his grandpa, purchased roughly 40 years ago for the same reason my boy now owns bitcoin—because to him gold always had value and always would. Sadly, my dad’s no longer with us. And when my generation is all gone, it’ll be our kids who’ll dictate what does and doesn’t have value.

現在，我這一代和前一代可能是最累積財富的一代。我相信這是去年金價飆升至歷史新高的最大原因之一。我們將其視為一種避險資產，可以保值，同時也被認為是對沖通膨的良好工具，因為這就是我們一生的經歷。但我的大兒子唯一知道的金子就是他脖子上的金子。他現在佩戴的那條金鍊是他爺爺的，大約 40 年前購買的，原因與我兒子現在擁有比特幣的原因相同——因為對他來說，黃金一直有價值，而且永遠如此。遺憾的是，我的父親已經不在我們身邊了。當我們這一代都過世後，將由我們的孩子來決定什麼有價值、什麼沒有價值。

Some will argue that comparing bitcoin to gold isn’t fair since the latter is a physical asset that does have intrinsic value from its use in numerous technology products, including semiconductors, and other industrial applications. But let’s be real here, the latter only amounts to about 7% of the total gold mined. The rest of the gold produced around the world is used to make jewelry or coins and bullion. And I’d argue that the gold used in jewelry, which is about as discretionary a purchase as they come, is not only desirable because it’s pretty, but because of its perceived scarcity. That’s also a big reason why gold is universally accepted as a store of value. More importantly, there has never been a time in my life when gold didn’t have value way above its actual intrinsic worth.

有些人會認為，將比特幣與黃金進行比較是不公平的，因為後者是一種實體資產，在半導體和其他工業應用等眾多技術產品中的使用確實具有內在價值。但說實話，後者僅佔黃金開採總量的 7% 左右。世界各地生產的其餘黃金用於製造珠寶或硬幣和金條。我認為，珠寶中使用的黃金幾乎是可隨意購買的，不僅因為它很漂亮，而且因為它被認為是稀缺的。這也是黃金被普遍接受為價值儲存手段的重要原因。更重要的是，在我的一生中，黃金的價值從來都沒有遠高於實際的內在價值。

The same is true of my boys and bitcoin. That is to say, we are a product of the times we grew up in. I was raised in a mostly analog world. I’m used to value being associated with something that’s tangible. Music and movies were delivered through physical media like cassette tapes, VHS, CDs and DVDs. Heck, I’m even old enough to remember the 8-Track and Betamax. My boys have no idea what these things are. For them, streaming from the cloud is as natural as renting videos from Blockbuster were to me and my friends. They’re part of a digital generation where everything comes from nothing. Bitcoin doesn’t need a physical presence when those most likely to determine its value in the future doesn’t need it to (or even want it to).

我的孩子和比特幣也是如此。也就是說，我們是我們成長的時代的產物。我習慣於重視與有形事物的連結。音樂和電影是透過卡式錄音帶、VHS、CD 和 DVD 等實體媒體傳送的。哎呀，我甚至還記得 8-Track 和 Betamax。我的孩子們不知道這些東西是什麼。對他們來說，從雲端進行串流媒體就像從百視達租用影片對我和我的朋友來說一樣自然。他們是數位世代的一部分，一切都是從無到有。當那些最有可能在未來決定其價值的人不需要（甚至不希望）比特幣時，比特幣就不需要物理存在。

Be Willing To Lose It All

願意失去一切

All that said, the crypto market still has many unknowns and carries plenty of risk. More than anything else, the number of cryptocurrencies need to drop by like 99.9%. Going back to the comparison to gold, there are 94 metals on the periodic table of elements. But only three of these are really viewed and accepted as a store of value—gold, silver and platinum. By comparison, there are currently about 270 different cryptocurrencies being traded on the popular crypto trading platform Coinbase and nearly 18,000(!) that it tracks overall.

話雖如此，加密貨幣市場仍然存在許多未知因素，並且存在大量風險。最重要的是，加密貨幣的數量需要減少 99.9%。回到與黃金的比較，元素週期表中有 94 種金屬。但其中只有三種真正被視為和接受為價值儲存手段：黃金、白銀和鉑金。相較之下，目前流行的加密貨幣交易平台 Coinbase 上交易的加密貨幣約有 270 種，整體追蹤的加密貨幣接近 18,000（！）。

It’s no coincidence that all my crypto holdings are in bitcoin with a small allocation in ether. To me, these have gained the most legitimacy among the general public and have become entrenched enough in the world view that they will effectively become the

我持有的所有加密貨幣都是比特幣，其中少量是以太幣，這並非巧合。對我來說，這些在公眾中獲得了最大的合法性，並且在世界觀中已經根深蒂固，他們將有效地成為