比特币打破记录，为宏观经济前景的波动奠定基础

比特币 (BTC) 以创纪录的周、月和季度收盘价标志着 2024 年第二季度的开始。然而，旧的阻力位，包括 2021 年历史高点 69,000 美元，继续挑战牛市。由于包括非农就业数据和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔评论在内的宏观经济数据影响市场情绪，潜在的波动已经做好了准备。尽管比特币长期保持在 70,000 美元以上，但经验丰富的持有者正在获利了结，而机构资本则流入现货 ETF。

Bitcoin: A Historical Quarter End Sets the Stage for Volatility Ahead

比特币：历史性的季度末为未来的波动奠定了基础

As the first quarter of 2024 drew to a close on March 31st, Bitcoin (BTC) achieved several historic milestones. The asset recorded its highest weekly, monthly, and quarterly closing prices ever witnessed. This surge culminated a quarter characterized by sustained momentum and bullish sentiment.

随着 2024 年第一季度于 3 月 31 日结束，比特币 (BTC) 实现了多个历史性里程碑。该资产创下了有史以来最高的周、月和季度收盘价。这一增长在一个季度达到顶峰，其特点是持续的势头和看涨情绪。

However, the euphoria was met with resistance as Bitcoin encountered hurdles at $69,000, its former all-time high established in 2021. This level has proven to be a significant barrier, preventing the asset from establishing new price peaks.

然而，随着比特币在 2021 年创下的历史新高 69,000 美元遇到障碍，这种兴奋情绪遇到了阻力。事实证明，这一水平是一个重大障碍，阻止了该资产创下新的价格峰值。

Analysts attribute the resistance to the lingering presence of sell-side liquidity, particularly among latecomers to the rally. To overcome this impediment, Bitcoin needs to decisively penetrate the $74,000 mark, which would effectively clear out a substantial portion of this liquidity.

分析师将阻力归因于卖方流动性的持续存在，尤其是在后来上涨的股票中。为了克服这一障碍，比特币需要果断突破 74,000 美元大关，这将有效清除大部分流动性。

As the second quarter of 2024 commences, the stage is set for potential volatility in Bitcoin's price action. Complicating the market outlook is the release of key macroeconomic data from the United States, including the nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for the end of the week.

随着 2024 年第二季度的开始，比特币价格走势的潜在波动已经准备就绪。美国发布的关键宏观经济数据，包括定于本周末发布的非农就业报告，让市场前景变得更加复杂。

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks will also be closely scrutinized. Last week, Bitcoin reacted positively to Powell's indication that interest rate cuts remained on the horizon for 2024.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的言论也将受到密切关注。上周，比特币对鲍威尔表示 2024 年仍将降息的暗示做出了积极反应。

Amidst Bitcoin's extended rally, seasoned holders have taken advantage of the favorable market conditions to realize profits. This dynamic counters the influx of institutional capital flowing into the asset class via spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

在比特币持续上涨的过程中，经验丰富的持有者利用有利的市场条件实现了利润。这种动态抵消了机构资本通过现货交易所交易基金（ETF）流入该资产类别的趋势。

Record-Breaking Quarter for Bitcoin

比特币季度破纪录

The first quarter of 2024 concluded on a high note for Bitcoin, with the asset securing record-setting weekly, monthly, and quarterly closes at approximately $70,300. This achievement marked a significant milestone in Bitcoin's history.

2024 年第一季度，比特币迎来了高调，该资产创下了创纪录的周、月和季度收盘价，约为 70,300 美元。这一成就标志着比特币历史上的一个重要里程碑。

However, a predictable retracement ensued, with local lows dipping to $68,900 within hours. On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin remains confined within a familiar range, with $69,000 acting as a pivotal focal point.

然而，随后出现了可预见的回调，数小时内局部低点跌至 68,900 美元。在较短的时间范围内，比特币仍局限于熟悉的区间，其中 69,000 美元是关键焦点。

Cautious Optimism and Resistance

谨慎乐观与抵制

Popular trader Skew advises caution until clearer trend signals emerge. The 4-hour trend remains intact, but the market requires sustained spot buying and perpetual bid momentum to maintain its upward trajectory.

受欢迎的交易员 Skew 建议谨慎行事，直到出现更清晰的趋势信号。 4小时趋势保持完好，但市场需要持续的现货买盘和永久的买盘动力才能维持其上升轨迹。

Skew also pinpoints the first Wall Street open as a significant event, as it marks the return of ETF flows. The $69,000 level remains a key resistance point on higher timeframes.

Skew 还指出，华尔街首次开盘是一件重大事件，因为它标志着 ETF 资金流的回归。 69,000 美元的水平仍然是较高时间范围内的关键阻力点。

Rekt Capital, a renowned analyst, expresses optimism regarding the recent candle closes. Bitcoin, he argues, has initiated a breakout process and could challenge the upper boundary of its range to establish it as long-term support, paving the way for further upside.

著名分析师 Rekt Capital 对最近的蜡烛收盘表示乐观。他认为，比特币已经启动了突破过程，可能会挑战其区间上限，将其确立为长期支撑，为进一步上涨铺平道路。

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of MNTrading, discerns two critical lines in the sand on lower timeframes: $67,000 and $71,700. A clear breakout in either direction is expected to determine the immediate trend, possibly leading to a final test of the previous all-time high before the upcoming halving event.

MNTrading 的创始人兼首席执行官 Michaël van de Poppe 在较短的时间范围内识别出了两条关键线：67,000 美元和 71,700 美元。预计任一方向的明显突破都将决定当前趋势，可能导致在即将到来的减半事件之前最终测试之前的历史高点。

Macroeconomic Data and Fed Commentary

宏观经济数据和美联储评论

The upcoming week brings with it a slew of U.S. macroeconomic data releases that will be scrutinized for their potential impact on risk assets, including Bitcoin. Fed Chair Powell's scheduled remarks on April 3rd will be a key highlight.

即将到来的一周将发布一系列美国宏观经济数据，这些数据将受到仔细审查，以确定它们对包括比特币在内的风险资产的潜在影响。美联储主席鲍威尔定于 4 月 3 日发表的讲话将是一大亮点。

Risk assets remain optimistic, anticipating a dovish long-term economic policy, with a series of interest rate cuts widely anticipated throughout 2024. Powell's recent comments have reinforced this expectation, indicating that even recent inflationary pressures will not warrant a hawkish stance.

风险资产依然乐观，预期长期经济政策将趋于鸽派，人们普遍预计2024年将出现一系列降息。鲍威尔最近的言论强化了这一预期，表明即使近期的通胀压力也不足以保证采取鹰派立场。

The nonfarm payrolls data, scheduled for release on April 5th, is another highly anticipated event. This release has historically influenced Bitcoin's price volatility.

定于 4 月 5 日发布的非农就业数据是另一个备受期待的事件。这一版本在历史上影响了比特币的价格波动。

Analysts believe that a weak jobs report could increase the likelihood of an earlier rate cut, thereby boosting risk assets, including Bitcoin. Conversely, a strong report might subdue risk appetite and exert downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

分析师认为，疲软的就业报告可能会增加提前降息的可能性，从而提振包括比特币在内的风险资产。相反，强劲的报告可能会抑制风险偏好并对比特币价格施加下行压力。

Long-Term Holders Cash Out

长期持有者套现

As Bitcoin scales new heights, long-term holders have been keen to realize profits. On-chain data reveals that a modest trickle of selling has now gained momentum, indicating a shift in sentiment among Bitcoin's "diamond hands."

随着比特币攀上新的高度，长期持有者一直渴望实现利润。链上数据显示，少量抛售现已获得动力，表明比特币“钻石手”的情绪发生了转变。

Glassnode, an analytics firm, reports a resurgence in realized profits, primarily driven by long-term holders. In March, LTHs accounted for nearly half of the $1 billion in realized profits recorded on March 31st.

分析公司 Glassnode 报告称，已实现利润复苏，这主要是由长期持有者推动的。 3 月份，LTH 占 3 月 31 日记录的 10 亿美元实现利润的近一半。

This trend suggests that LTHs, who are typically more resolute in their conviction to hold Bitcoin, are becoming increasingly active in taking profits. Analysts view this as a factor that could potentially intensify sell-side pressure in the future.

这一趋势表明，LTH 通常更坚定地持有比特币，他们在获利了结方面正变得越来越积极。分析师认为，这是未来可能加剧卖方压力的一个因素。

Striking Similarity to 2020

与 2020 年惊人相似

Glassnode also uncovers a remarkable resemblance between Bitcoin's current price action and its previous bull market in 2021. By overlaying the performance of 2024 against that of earlier cycles, the 2011-2013 cycle stands out as an anomaly.

Glassnode 还发现，比特币当前的价格走势与 2021 年之前的牛市之间存在显着相似之处。通过将 2024 年的表现与早期周期的表现相叠加，2011-2013 年的周期显得异常。

This comparison challenges the notion that institutional participation has introduced a new paradigm in Bitcoin's price behavior. The current market conditions align closely with those of December 2020, when Bitcoin was poised for a major upward surge after retesting its previous all-time highs.

这种比较挑战了机构参与在比特币价格行为中引入了新范式的观点。当前的市场状况与 2020 年 12 月的市场状况非常吻合，当时比特币在重新测试之前的历史高点后，有望大幅上涨。

Bullish Divergence in Risk Assets

风险资产的看涨背离

Crypto market sentiment is increasingly anticipating a favorable price environment across the board, supported by data indicating a rise in risk appetite. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has surged into "extreme greed" territory, signaling growing irrationality among traders should the bull market continue to deliver gains.

在显示风险偏好上升的数据的支持下，加密货币市场情绪越来越期待全面有利的价格环境。加密货币恐惧与贪婪指数已飙升至“极度贪婪”区域，表明如果牛市继续带来收益，交易者的非理性将日益加剧。

Despite remaining below the levels witnessed during the 2021 all-time highs, the Fear & Greed Index has consistently exceeded those levels, suggesting that traders are receptive to the possibility of further upside.

尽管仍低于 2021 年历史高点期间的水平，但恐惧与贪婪指数一直超过这些水平，表明交易者愿意接受进一步上涨的可能性。

Santiment, a research firm, attributes the investor optimism to a broader belief in the strength of risk assets. The firm suggests that the recent all-time highs set by the S&P 500 and gold are creating a bullish divergence that could benefit Bitcoin and altcoins, as traders seek to redeploy profits from these other sectors.

研究公司 Santiment 将投资者的乐观情绪归因于对风险资产实力的更广泛信念。该公司表示，标准普尔 500 指数和黄金近期创下的历史新高正在形成看涨背离，这可能有利于比特币和山寨币，因为交易者寻求从这些其他行业重新部署利润。

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

免责声明：本文不构成投资建议。建议读者在做出任何投资决定之前进行自己的研究。