比特幣打破紀錄，為宏觀經濟前景的波動奠定基礎

比特幣 (BTC) 以創紀錄的周、月和季度收盤價標誌著 2024 年第二季的開始。然而，舊的阻力位，包括 2021 年歷史高點 69,000 美元，繼續挑戰牛市。由於包括非農就業數據和聯準會主席鮑威爾評論在內的宏觀經濟數據影響市場情緒，潛在的波動已經準備好了。儘管比特幣長期維持在 7 萬美元以上，但經驗豐富的持有者正在獲利了結，而機構資本則流入現貨 ETF。

Bitcoin: A Historical Quarter End Sets the Stage for Volatility Ahead

比特幣：歷史性的季度末為未來的波動奠定了基礎

As the first quarter of 2024 drew to a close on March 31st, Bitcoin (BTC) achieved several historic milestones. The asset recorded its highest weekly, monthly, and quarterly closing prices ever witnessed. This surge culminated a quarter characterized by sustained momentum and bullish sentiment.

隨著 2024 年第一季於 3 月 31 日結束，比特幣 (BTC) 實現了多個歷史性里程碑。該資產創下了有史以來最高的周、月和季度收盤價。這一增長在一個季度達到頂峰，其特徵是持續的勢頭和看漲情緒。

However, the euphoria was met with resistance as Bitcoin encountered hurdles at $69,000, its former all-time high established in 2021. This level has proven to be a significant barrier, preventing the asset from establishing new price peaks.

然而，隨著比特幣在 2021 年創下的歷史新高 69,000 美元遇到障礙，這種興奮情緒遇到了阻力。事實證明，這一水平是一個重大障礙，阻止了該資產創下新的價格高峰。

Analysts attribute the resistance to the lingering presence of sell-side liquidity, particularly among latecomers to the rally. To overcome this impediment, Bitcoin needs to decisively penetrate the $74,000 mark, which would effectively clear out a substantial portion of this liquidity.

分析師將阻力歸因於賣方流動性的持續存在，尤其是在後來上漲的股票中。為了克服這一障礙，比特幣需要果斷突破 74,000 美元大關，這將有效清除大部分流動性。

As the second quarter of 2024 commences, the stage is set for potential volatility in Bitcoin's price action. Complicating the market outlook is the release of key macroeconomic data from the United States, including the nonfarm payrolls report scheduled for the end of the week.

隨著 2024 年第二季的開始，比特幣價格走勢的潛在波動已經準備就緒。美國發布的關鍵宏觀經濟數據，包括定於本週末發布的非農業就業報告，讓市場前景變得更加複雜。

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks will also be closely scrutinized. Last week, Bitcoin reacted positively to Powell's indication that interest rate cuts remained on the horizon for 2024.

聯準會主席鮑威爾的言論也將受到密切關注。上週，比特幣對鮑威爾表示 2024 年仍將降息的暗示做出了積極反應。

Amidst Bitcoin's extended rally, seasoned holders have taken advantage of the favorable market conditions to realize profits. This dynamic counters the influx of institutional capital flowing into the asset class via spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

在比特幣持續上漲的過程中，經驗豐富的持有者利用有利的市場條件實現了利潤。這種動態抵銷了機構資本透過現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）流入該資產類別的趨勢。

Record-Breaking Quarter for Bitcoin

比特幣季度破紀錄

The first quarter of 2024 concluded on a high note for Bitcoin, with the asset securing record-setting weekly, monthly, and quarterly closes at approximately $70,300. This achievement marked a significant milestone in Bitcoin's history.

2024 年第一季度，比特幣迎來了高調，該資產創下了創紀錄的周、月和季度收盤價，約 70,300 美元。這項成就標誌著比特幣歷史上一個重要的里程碑。

However, a predictable retracement ensued, with local lows dipping to $68,900 within hours. On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin remains confined within a familiar range, with $69,000 acting as a pivotal focal point.

然而，隨後出現了可預見的回調，幾小時內局部低點跌至 68,900 美元。在較短的時間範圍內，比特幣仍局限於熟悉的區間，其中 69,000 美元是關鍵焦點。

Cautious Optimism and Resistance

謹慎樂觀與抵制

Popular trader Skew advises caution until clearer trend signals emerge. The 4-hour trend remains intact, but the market requires sustained spot buying and perpetual bid momentum to maintain its upward trajectory.

受歡迎的交易員 Skew 建議謹慎行事，直到出現更清晰的趨勢訊號。 4小時趨勢保持完好，但市場需要持續的現貨買盤和永久的買盤動力才能維持其上升軌跡。

Skew also pinpoints the first Wall Street open as a significant event, as it marks the return of ETF flows. The $69,000 level remains a key resistance point on higher timeframes.

Skew 也指出，華爾街首次開盤是一件重大事件，因為它標誌著 ETF 資金流的回歸。 69,000 美元的水平仍然是較高時間範圍內的關鍵阻力點。

Rekt Capital, a renowned analyst, expresses optimism regarding the recent candle closes. Bitcoin, he argues, has initiated a breakout process and could challenge the upper boundary of its range to establish it as long-term support, paving the way for further upside.

著名分析師 Rekt Capital 對最近的蠟燭收盤表示樂觀。他認為，比特幣已經啟動了突破過程，可能會挑戰其區間上限，將其確立為長期支撐，為進一步上漲鋪平道路。

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of MNTrading, discerns two critical lines in the sand on lower timeframes: $67,000 and $71,700. A clear breakout in either direction is expected to determine the immediate trend, possibly leading to a final test of the previous all-time high before the upcoming halving event.

MNTrading 的創始人兼執行長 Michaël van de Poppe 在較短的時間範圍內識別出了兩條關鍵線：67,000 美元和 71,700 美元。預計任一方向的明顯突破都將決定當前趨勢，可能導致在即將到來的減半事件之前最終測試之前的歷史高點。

Macroeconomic Data and Fed Commentary

宏觀經濟數據與聯準會評論

The upcoming week brings with it a slew of U.S. macroeconomic data releases that will be scrutinized for their potential impact on risk assets, including Bitcoin. Fed Chair Powell's scheduled remarks on April 3rd will be a key highlight.

即將到來的一周將發布一系列美國宏觀經濟數據，這些數據將受到仔細審查，以確定它們對包括比特幣在內的風險資產的潛在影響。聯準會主席鮑威爾定於 4 月 3 日發表的演講將是一大亮點。

Risk assets remain optimistic, anticipating a dovish long-term economic policy, with a series of interest rate cuts widely anticipated throughout 2024. Powell's recent comments have reinforced this expectation, indicating that even recent inflationary pressures will not warrant a hawkish stance.

風險資產依然樂觀，預期長期經濟政策將趨於鴿派，人們普遍預計2024年將出現一系列降息。鮑威爾最近的言論強化了這一預期，表明即使近期的通膨壓力也不足以保證採取鷹派立場。

The nonfarm payrolls data, scheduled for release on April 5th, is another highly anticipated event. This release has historically influenced Bitcoin's price volatility.

定於 4 月 5 日發布的非農就業數據是另一個備受期待的事件。這個版本在歷史上影響了比特幣的價格波動。

Analysts believe that a weak jobs report could increase the likelihood of an earlier rate cut, thereby boosting risk assets, including Bitcoin. Conversely, a strong report might subdue risk appetite and exert downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

分析師認為，疲軟的就業報告可能會增加提前降息的可能性，從而提振包括比特幣在內的風險資產。相反，強勁的報告可能會抑制風險偏好並對比特幣價格施加下行壓力。

Long-Term Holders Cash Out

長期持有者套現

As Bitcoin scales new heights, long-term holders have been keen to realize profits. On-chain data reveals that a modest trickle of selling has now gained momentum, indicating a shift in sentiment among Bitcoin's "diamond hands."

隨著比特幣攀上新的高度，長期持有者一直渴望利潤。鏈上數據顯示，少量拋售現已獲得動力，顯示比特幣「鑽石手」的情緒發生了轉變。

Glassnode, an analytics firm, reports a resurgence in realized profits, primarily driven by long-term holders. In March, LTHs accounted for nearly half of the $1 billion in realized profits recorded on March 31st.

分析公司 Glassnode 報告稱，已實現利潤復甦，這主要是由長期持有者推動的。 3 月份，LTH 佔 3 月 31 日記錄的 10 億美元實現利潤的近一半。

This trend suggests that LTHs, who are typically more resolute in their conviction to hold Bitcoin, are becoming increasingly active in taking profits. Analysts view this as a factor that could potentially intensify sell-side pressure in the future.

這一趨勢表明，LTH 通常更堅定地持有比特幣，他們在獲利了結方面變得越來越積極。分析師認為，這是未來可能加劇賣方壓力的因素。

Striking Similarity to 2020

與 2020 年驚人相似

Glassnode also uncovers a remarkable resemblance between Bitcoin's current price action and its previous bull market in 2021. By overlaying the performance of 2024 against that of earlier cycles, the 2011-2013 cycle stands out as an anomaly.

Glassnode 也發現，比特幣目前的價格走勢與 2021 年之前的多頭市場之間存在顯著相似之處。透過將 2024 年的表現與早期週期的表現相疊加，2011-2013 年的週期顯得異常。

This comparison challenges the notion that institutional participation has introduced a new paradigm in Bitcoin's price behavior. The current market conditions align closely with those of December 2020, when Bitcoin was poised for a major upward surge after retesting its previous all-time highs.

這種比較挑戰了機構參與在比特幣價格行為中引入了新範式的觀點。目前的市場狀況與 2020 年 12 月的市場狀況非常吻合，當時比特幣在重新測試之前的歷史高點後，預計將大幅上漲。

Bullish Divergence in Risk Assets

風險資產的看漲背離

Crypto market sentiment is increasingly anticipating a favorable price environment across the board, supported by data indicating a rise in risk appetite. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has surged into "extreme greed" territory, signaling growing irrationality among traders should the bull market continue to deliver gains.

在顯示風險偏好上升的數據的支持下，加密貨幣市場情緒越來越期待全面有利的價格環境。加密貨幣恐懼與貪婪指數已飆升至「極度貪婪」區域，顯示如果多頭市場繼續帶來收益，交易者的非理性將日益加劇。

Despite remaining below the levels witnessed during the 2021 all-time highs, the Fear & Greed Index has consistently exceeded those levels, suggesting that traders are receptive to the possibility of further upside.

儘管仍低於 2021 年歷史高點期間的水平，但恐懼與貪婪指數一直超過這些水平，表明交易者願意接受進一步上漲的可能性。

Santiment, a research firm, attributes the investor optimism to a broader belief in the strength of risk assets. The firm suggests that the recent all-time highs set by the S&P 500 and gold are creating a bullish divergence that could benefit Bitcoin and altcoins, as traders seek to redeploy profits from these other sectors.

研究公司 Santiment 將投資者的樂觀情緒歸因於對風險資產實力的更廣泛信念。該公司表示，標準普爾 500 指數和黃金近期創下的歷史新高正在形成看漲背離，這可能有利於比特幣和山寨幣，因為交易者尋求從這些其他行業重新部署利潤。

Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Readers are advised to conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.

免責聲明：本文不構成投資建議。建議讀者在做出任何投資決定之前進行自己的研究。