Altcoin季节是一个错误的名称。是时候退休了。

加密货币中很少有东西像“山寨赛季节”的概念那样难以捉摸和误解。

Few things in crypto are as elusive and misunderstood as the concept of an “altcoin season.”

加密货币中很少有东西像“山寨赛季节”的概念那样难以捉摸和误解。

Traditionally, this term refers to a brief window — usually 2–3 months — following a Bitcoin (BTC) price rally, where altcoins outperform BTC in cumulative returns. That pattern held in the 2015–2018 and 2019–2022 cycles, but the verdict is not yet in on whether the current bull market has had its altcoin season.

传统上，这个术语是指在比特币（BTC）价格集会之后的一个简短窗口（通常为2-3个月），其中AltCoins在累计回报中的表现优于BTC。这种模式在2015 - 2018年和2019 - 2022年的周期中举行，但关于当前牛市是否有其Altcoin季节的判决尚未做出判决。

The Blockchain Center defines an altcoin season as a period when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day timeframe. Its Altseason Index registered upticks in March 2024 and again in January 2025 — but neither lasted long enough to qualify as a full-fledged altseason.

区块链中心将Altcoin季节定义为前50名Altcoins中75％的时间超过90天的时间范围的比特币。其Altseason指数在2024年3月和2025年1月再次登记了上升，但持续时间却足够长，无法成为成熟的Altseason。

Some analysts argue that memecoins drained liquidity from the broader altcoin market. Others blame the oversaturation of crypto investment products — particularly ETFs — which cater to institutions and spotlight only the largest altcoins. A third explanation calls for a deeper rethink of what altcoins actually are. Within this view, altcoins are perceived as a unified asset class but are a diverse collection of crypto assets with different functions, value structure, and growth potential.

一些分析师认为，模因从更广泛的山寨币市场流动流动性。其他人则指责加密投资产品（尤其是ETF）的过度饱和，这些产品迎合了机构，并且仅关注最大的山寨币。第三个解释需要更深入地重新考虑AltCoins实际是什么。在这种观点中，AltCoins被视为统一资产类别，但是具有不同功能，价值结构和增长潜力的加密资产的多样化集合。

Memecoins stole the spotlight

成人偷了聚光灯

For the crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, the launch of Pump.fun is directly correlated to the destruction of the altcoin market vs BTC.

对于加密分析师Miles Deutscher来说，泵的发布与Altcoin Market与BTC的破坏直接相关。

Deutscher notes that the early birds and insiders got insanely rich from this, but most retail investors who entered late lost. This was also the case in previous altcoin cycles. However, unlike 2022, where the losses were mainly limited to CEX altcoins with solid liquidity, they got stuck into illiquid onchain memecoins, which quickly retraced 70%-80%. This led to a “wealth destruction event greater than the early 2022 bear (LUNA aside),” even though BTC (and some majors) are still in a macro bull trend.

德意志（Deutscher）指出，早期的鸟类和内部人士从中获得了疯狂的富裕，但是大多数进入迟到的零售投资者都丢失了。在先前的山寨币周期中也是如此。但是，与2022年不同的是，损失主要仅限于具有固体流动性的CEX Altcoins，它们被陷入了流动性的Onchain Memecoins，后者迅速回顾了70％-80％。尽管BTC（和某些专业）仍处于宏观公牛的趋势中，但这导致了“比2022年早期的熊（Luna）大的财富破坏事件”。

Politics in the United States added fuel to the memecoin craze. For example, President Donald Trump’s public embrace of memecoins sparked momentum — but the results quickly disappointed. TRUMP and MELANIA tokens have dropped 83% and 95%, respectively, since launching at the end of January, delivering another hit to retail sentiment.

美国的政治增加了Memecoin热潮的燃料。例如，唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统对成员的公众拥抱引发了动力，但结果很快使人失望。自1月底推出以来，特朗普和梅拉尼亚代币分别下降了83％和95％，对零售情绪又一次受到打击。

Institutional investors and ETFs shifted the tide

机构投资者和ETF改变了潮流

Another factor impacting the strength of the current bull market’s altcoin season was the arrival of Wall Street. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 brought $129 billion in inflows as investors rushed into familiar structures with custody, regulation, and easy access. BlackRock’s IBIT became a dominant vehicle, and the introduction of ETF options in July 2024 added even more depth.

影响当前牛市山寨赛季节强度的另一个因素是华尔街的到来。 2024年1月，随着投资者急忙进入熟悉的结构，有监护权，法规和轻松进入的熟悉的结构，该现货比特币ETF的推出带来了1290亿美元的流入。贝莱德（Blackrock）的IBIT成为主要工具，并于2024年7月引入ETF选项增加了更深的深度。

Some analysts believe that the safety and scalability of spot BTC ETFs sucked capital away from speculative assets. With the ability to hedge through options and futures, the incentive to gamble on illiquid, low-volume altcoins diminishes significantly.

一些分析人士认为，点BTC ETF的安全性和可扩展性使资本从投机资产中吸收了。凭借对期权和未来的对冲的能力，赌博流动性的动机大大减少了流动性的动力。

But this explanation has limits. Crypto is not a zero-sum market — global liquidity is growing, and capital entering the space can flow in many directions. If anything, institutional demand could expand the total crypto pie.

但是这种解释有限制。加密不是一个零和市场 - 全球流动性正在增长，进入该空间的资本可以朝许多方向流动。如果有的话，机构需求可以扩大总加密派。

Furthermore, some altcoins already have their ETFs as well. Spot Ether ETFs debuted in July 2024 and have since registered a modest net inflow of $565,000, according to CoinGlass. Such a drastic difference in scale with spot BTC ETFs suggests that the ETF structure alone isn’t enough; investor conviction still matters.

此外，一些山寨币也已经具有其ETF。根据Coinglass的数据，Spot Ether ETF于2024年7月首次亮相，此后的净流入量为56.5万美元。与点BTC ETF的规模上如此巨大的差异表明，仅ETF结构还不够。投资者的定罪仍然很重要。

Altcoin’s function and their rallies became more nuanced

Altcoin的功能和他们的集会变得更加细微

The term “altcoin” emerged when any non-Bitcoin token was novel. But in today’s ecosystem, the term lumps together wildly different assets: blockchain-native coins, governance tokens, stablecoins, memecoins, DApp tokens, and real-world asset protocol tokens — each with distinct functions and investor profiles. Just as it wouldn’t make sense to group gold, Nvidia stock, and the US dollar into a single index in traditional finance, it makes little sense to treat all altcoins as one unified category.

当任何非比币代币都是新颖的时，“ altcoin”一词就出现了。但是在当今的生态系统中，该术语汇集了截然不同的资产：区块链本地硬币，治理令牌，Stablecoins，Memecoins，Memecoins，Dapp令牌和现实世界中的资产协议代币 - 每种都具有不同的功能和投资者资料。正如将黄金，NVIDIA股票和美元归为单一指数的传统金融中没有意义一样，将所有altcoins视为一个统一类别，这是没有意义的。

A closer look at price action supports this idea. According to CoinGecko data, major altcoin categories have diverged sharply this cycle. Real-world asset (RWA) tokens surged 15x. GameFi, by contrast, lost half its market cap. This shows that narratives play a growing role in driving investors’ capital allocation decisions.

仔细研究价格动作支持了这个想法。根据Coingecko数据，这个周期的主要替代币类别急剧差异。现实世界中的资产（RWA）代币飙升15倍。相比之下，Gamefi失去了一半的市值。这表明叙事在推动投资者的资本分配决策中起着越来越多的作用。

Even core blockchain tokens have started to specialize. Ethereum remains the hub for DeFi. Solana dominates memecoins. Tron now holds second place in stablecoin transfers. ImmutableX is carving out its territory in the gaming space. In each case, token performance is increasingly tied to ecosystem activity. This means that we might want to abandon the term “altseason” and start to pay more attention to specific narratives within

甚至核心区块链代币也开始专业化。以太坊仍然是Defi的枢纽。索拉纳（Solana）占主导地位。 Tron现在在Stablecoin Transfers中排名第二。 Immutablex正在游戏空间中雕刻其领土。在每种情况下，令牌性能越来越多地与生态系统活动相关。这意味着我们可能想放弃“ altseason”一词，并开始对内部的特定叙述更加关注