Altcoin季節是一個錯誤的名稱。是時候退休了。

加密貨幣中很少有東西像“山寨賽季節”的概念那樣難以捉摸和誤解。

Few things in crypto are as elusive and misunderstood as the concept of an “altcoin season.”

加密貨幣中很少有東西像“山寨賽季節”的概念那樣難以捉摸和誤解。

Traditionally, this term refers to a brief window — usually 2–3 months — following a Bitcoin (BTC) price rally, where altcoins outperform BTC in cumulative returns. That pattern held in the 2015–2018 and 2019–2022 cycles, but the verdict is not yet in on whether the current bull market has had its altcoin season.

傳統上，這個術語是指在比特幣（BTC）價格集會之後的一個簡短窗口（通常為2-3個月），其中AltCoins在累計回報中的表現優於BTC。這種模式在2015 - 2018年和2019 - 2022年的周期中舉行，但關於當前牛市是否有其Altcoin季節的判決尚未做出判決。

The Blockchain Center defines an altcoin season as a period when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a rolling 90-day timeframe. Its Altseason Index registered upticks in March 2024 and again in January 2025 — but neither lasted long enough to qualify as a full-fledged altseason.

區塊鏈中心將Altcoin季節定義為前50名Altcoins中75％的時間超過90天的時間範圍的比特幣。其Altseason指數在2024年3月和2025年1月再次登記了上升，但持續時間卻足夠長，無法成為成熟的Altseason。

Some analysts argue that memecoins drained liquidity from the broader altcoin market. Others blame the oversaturation of crypto investment products — particularly ETFs — which cater to institutions and spotlight only the largest altcoins. A third explanation calls for a deeper rethink of what altcoins actually are. Within this view, altcoins are perceived as a unified asset class but are a diverse collection of crypto assets with different functions, value structure, and growth potential.

一些分析師認為，模因從更廣泛的山寨幣市場流動流動性。其他人則指責加密投資產品（尤其是ETF）的過度飽和，這些產品迎合了機構，並且僅關注最大的山寨幣。第三個解釋需要更深入地重新考慮AltCoins實際是什麼。在這種觀點中，AltCoins被視為統一資產類別，但是具有不同功能，價值結構和增長潛力的加密資產的多樣化集合。

Memecoins stole the spotlight

成人偷了聚光燈

For the crypto analyst Miles Deutscher, the launch of Pump.fun is directly correlated to the destruction of the altcoin market vs BTC.

對於加密分析師Miles Deutscher來說，泵的發布與Altcoin Market與BTC的破壞直接相關。

Deutscher notes that the early birds and insiders got insanely rich from this, but most retail investors who entered late lost. This was also the case in previous altcoin cycles. However, unlike 2022, where the losses were mainly limited to CEX altcoins with solid liquidity, they got stuck into illiquid onchain memecoins, which quickly retraced 70%-80%. This led to a “wealth destruction event greater than the early 2022 bear (LUNA aside),” even though BTC (and some majors) are still in a macro bull trend.

德意志（Deutscher）指出，早期的鳥類和內部人士從中獲得了瘋狂的富裕，但是大多數進入遲到的零售投資者都丟失了。在先前的山寨幣週期中也是如此。但是，與2022年不同的是，損失主要僅限於具有固體流動性的CEX Altcoins，它們被陷入了流動性的Onchain Memecoins，後者迅速回顧了70％-80％。儘管BTC（和某些專業）仍處於宏觀公牛的趨勢中，但這導致了“比2022年早期的熊（Luna）大的財富破壞事件”。

Politics in the United States added fuel to the memecoin craze. For example, President Donald Trump’s public embrace of memecoins sparked momentum — but the results quickly disappointed. TRUMP and MELANIA tokens have dropped 83% and 95%, respectively, since launching at the end of January, delivering another hit to retail sentiment.

美國的政治增加了Memecoin熱潮的燃料。例如，唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）總統對成員的公眾擁抱引發了動力，但結果很快使人失望。自1月底推出以來，特朗普和梅拉尼亞代幣分別下降了83％和95％，對零售情緒又一次受到打擊。

Institutional investors and ETFs shifted the tide

機構投資者和ETF改變了潮流

Another factor impacting the strength of the current bull market’s altcoin season was the arrival of Wall Street. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 brought $129 billion in inflows as investors rushed into familiar structures with custody, regulation, and easy access. BlackRock’s IBIT became a dominant vehicle, and the introduction of ETF options in July 2024 added even more depth.

影響當前牛市山寨賽季節強度的另一個因素是華爾街的到來。 2024年1月，隨著投資者急忙進入熟悉的結構，有監護權，法規和輕鬆進入的熟悉的結構，該現貨比特幣ETF的推出帶來了1290億美元的流入。貝萊德（Blackrock）的IBIT成為主要工具，並於2024年7月引入ETF選項增加了更深的深度。

Some analysts believe that the safety and scalability of spot BTC ETFs sucked capital away from speculative assets. With the ability to hedge through options and futures, the incentive to gamble on illiquid, low-volume altcoins diminishes significantly.

一些分析人士認為，點BTC ETF的安全性和可擴展性使資本從投機資產中吸收了。憑藉對期權和未來的對沖的能力，賭博流動性的動機大大減少了流動性的動力。

But this explanation has limits. Crypto is not a zero-sum market — global liquidity is growing, and capital entering the space can flow in many directions. If anything, institutional demand could expand the total crypto pie.

但是這種解釋有限制。加密不是一個零和市場 - 全球流動性正在增長，進入該空間的資本可以朝許多方向流動。如果有的話，機構需求可以擴大總加密派。

Furthermore, some altcoins already have their ETFs as well. Spot Ether ETFs debuted in July 2024 and have since registered a modest net inflow of $565,000, according to CoinGlass. Such a drastic difference in scale with spot BTC ETFs suggests that the ETF structure alone isn’t enough; investor conviction still matters.

此外，一些山寨幣也已經具有其ETF。根據Coinglass的數據，Spot Ether ETF於2024年7月首次亮相，此後的淨流入量為56.5萬美元。與點BTC ETF的規模上如此巨大的差異表明，僅ETF結構還不夠。投資者的定罪仍然很重要。

Altcoin’s function and their rallies became more nuanced

Altcoin的功能和他們的集會變得更加細微

The term “altcoin” emerged when any non-Bitcoin token was novel. But in today’s ecosystem, the term lumps together wildly different assets: blockchain-native coins, governance tokens, stablecoins, memecoins, DApp tokens, and real-world asset protocol tokens — each with distinct functions and investor profiles. Just as it wouldn’t make sense to group gold, Nvidia stock, and the US dollar into a single index in traditional finance, it makes little sense to treat all altcoins as one unified category.

當任何非比幣代幣都是新穎的時，“ altcoin”一詞就出現了。但是在當今的生態系統中，該術語彙集了截然不同的資產：區塊鏈本地硬幣，治理令牌，Stablecoins，Memecoins，Memecoins，Dapp令牌和現實世界中的資產協議代幣 - 每種都具有不同的功能和投資者資料。正如將黃金，NVIDIA股票和美元歸為單一指數的傳統金融中沒有意義一樣，將所有altcoins視為一個統一類別，這是沒有意義的。

A closer look at price action supports this idea. According to CoinGecko data, major altcoin categories have diverged sharply this cycle. Real-world asset (RWA) tokens surged 15x. GameFi, by contrast, lost half its market cap. This shows that narratives play a growing role in driving investors’ capital allocation decisions.

仔細研究價格動作支持了這個想法。根據Coingecko數據，這個週期的主要替代幣類別急劇差異。現實世界中的資產（RWA）代幣飆升15倍。相比之下，Gamefi失去了一半的市值。這表明敘事在推動投資者的資本分配決策中起著越來越多的作用。

Even core blockchain tokens have started to specialize. Ethereum remains the hub for DeFi. Solana dominates memecoins. Tron now holds second place in stablecoin transfers. ImmutableX is carving out its territory in the gaming space. In each case, token performance is increasingly tied to ecosystem activity. This means that we might want to abandon the term “altseason” and start to pay more attention to specific narratives within

甚至核心區塊鏈代幣也開始專業化。以太坊仍然是Defi的樞紐。索拉納（Solana）占主導地位。 Tron現在在Stablecoin Transfers中排名第二。 Immutablex正在遊戲空間中雕刻其領土。在每種情況下，令牌性能越來越多地與生態系統活動相關。這意味著我們可能想放棄“ altseason”一詞，並開始對內部的特定敘述更加關注