12 月 18 日星期三將作為因聯準會降息 25 個基點和主席傑羅姆鮑威爾的鷹派前景引發的市場恐慌而載入史冊

比特幣（BTC）短暫跌破 10 萬美元；美股下跌約3%，美元指數(DXY)指數飆漲至兩年高點108

Markets panicked on Wednesday, Dec. 18, as the 25 basis point Fed rate cut and Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish outlook sent Bitcoin (BTC) briefly tumbling below $100,000.

12 月 18 日星期三，聯準會降息 25 個基點和主席鮑威爾的鷹派前景導致比特幣 (BTC) 短暫跌破 10 萬美元，市場陷入恐慌。

U.S. equities dropped around 3%, while the dollar index (DXY) soared to a two-year high of 108, continuing to pressure currencies worldwide.

美國股市下跌約 3%，而美元指數 (DXY) 飆升至兩年高點 108，繼續對全球貨幣構成壓力。

The most significant movement came from the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which skyrocketed by 74%, marking the largest one-day jump in Wall Street's so-called fear gauge since February 5, 2018. It was also the second-largest increase in its history. The VIX serves as a measure of market fear and expected volatility over the next 30 days.

最顯著的變動來自 C​​BOE 波動率指數 (VIX)，該指數飆升 74%，標誌著華爾街所謂的恐懼指標自 2018 年 2 月 5 日以來最大單日漲幅。 VIX 是衡量市場恐慌情緒和未來 30 天內預期波動性的指標。

Historically, significant spikes in the VIX have marked local bottoms for both bitcoin and the S&P 500.

從歷史上看，VIX 的大幅飆升標誌著比特幣和標準普爾 500 指數的局部底部。

Examining the top three one-day changes in the VIX, the first occurred on Feb. 5, 2018, when it surged by 116%. On that day, bitcoin plunged 16% to $6,891, which turned out to be a local bottom. By Feb. 20, prices had rebounded to over $11,000.

考察 VIX 的三大單日變化，第一個發生在 2018 年 2 月 5 日，當時飆升了 116%。當日，比特幣暴跌 16% 至 6,891 美元，結果是局部底部。到 2 月 20 日，價格已反彈至 11,000 美元以上。

The second-largest spike in the VIX occurred on Dec. 18, registering a 74% increase.

VIX 的第二大高峰發生在 12 月 18 日，漲幅為 74%。

The third biggest spike happened on Aug. 5, 2024, during the Yen carry trade unwind, when the VIX jumped 65%. On that occasion, bitcoin dropped 6% to hit a local bottom around $54,000 and climbed back up to over $64,000 by Aug. 23.

第三次大幅上漲發生在 2024 年 8 月 5 日，日圓套利交易平倉期間，VIX 指數上漲 65%。當時，比特幣下跌 6%，觸及 54,000 美元左右的局部底部，並在 8 月 23 日回升至 64,000 美元以上。

A similar pattern has consistently played out in the S&P 500 over the years, data shared by Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, show.

Creative Planning 首席市場策略師 Charlie Bilello 分享的數據顯示，多年來標準普爾 500 指數一直呈現類似的模式。

“The S&P 500 had a net gain of 1 day after the top 3 1-day spikes in the VIX,” Bilello noted. “The average 1-day return was +1.1%.”

Bilello 指出：“在 VIX 出現前 3 個 1 日峰值後，標準普爾 500 指數淨收益 1 天。” “平均 1 天回報率為 +1.1%。”

Let's see if history repeats itself. At press time, BTC traded above $102,000 while the S&P 500 futures pointed to a positive open with a 0.37% gain.

讓我們看看歷史是否會重演。截至發稿時，BTC 交易價格高於 102,000 美元，而標準普爾 500 指數期貨開盤上漲 0.37%。