12 月 18 日星期三将作为因美联储降息 25 个基点和主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的鹰派前景引发的市场恐慌而载入史册

比特币（BTC）短暂跌破 10 万美元；美股下跌约3%，美元指数(DXY)指数飙升至两年高位108

Markets panicked on Wednesday, Dec. 18, as the 25 basis point Fed rate cut and Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish outlook sent Bitcoin (BTC) briefly tumbling below $100,000.

12 月 18 日星期三，美联储降息 25 个基点和主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的鹰派前景导致比特币 (BTC) 短暂跌破 10 万美元，市场陷入恐慌。

U.S. equities dropped around 3%, while the dollar index (DXY) soared to a two-year high of 108, continuing to pressure currencies worldwide.

美国股市下跌约 3%，而美元指数 (DXY) 飙升至两年高点 108，继续对全球货币构成压力。

The most significant movement came from the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which skyrocketed by 74%, marking the largest one-day jump in Wall Street's so-called fear gauge since February 5, 2018. It was also the second-largest increase in its history. The VIX serves as a measure of market fear and expected volatility over the next 30 days.

最显着的变动来自 CBOE 波动率指数 (VIX)，该指数飙升 74%，标志着华尔街所谓的恐惧指标自 2018 年 2 月 5 日以来最大单日涨幅。它的历史。 VIX 是衡量市场恐慌情绪和未来 30 天内预期波动性的指标。

Historically, significant spikes in the VIX have marked local bottoms for both bitcoin and the S&P 500.

从历史上看，VIX 的大幅飙升标志着比特币和标准普尔 500 指数的局部底部。

Examining the top three one-day changes in the VIX, the first occurred on Feb. 5, 2018, when it surged by 116%. On that day, bitcoin plunged 16% to $6,891, which turned out to be a local bottom. By Feb. 20, prices had rebounded to over $11,000.

考察 VIX 的三大单日变化，第一个发生在 2018 年 2 月 5 日，当时飙升了 116%。当日，比特币暴跌 16% 至 6,891 美元，结果是局部底部。到 2 月 20 日，价格已反弹至 11,000 美元以上。

The second-largest spike in the VIX occurred on Dec. 18, registering a 74% increase.

VIX 的第二大峰值发生在 12 月 18 日，涨幅为 74%。

The third biggest spike happened on Aug. 5, 2024, during the Yen carry trade unwind, when the VIX jumped 65%. On that occasion, bitcoin dropped 6% to hit a local bottom around $54,000 and climbed back up to over $64,000 by Aug. 23.

第三次大幅上涨发生在 2024 年 8 月 5 日，日元套利交易平仓期间，VIX 指数上涨 65%。当时，比特币下跌 6%，触及 54,000 美元左右的局部底部，并于 8 月 23 日回升至 64,000 美元以上。

A similar pattern has consistently played out in the S&P 500 over the years, data shared by Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, show.

Creative Planning 首席市场策略师 Charlie Bilello 分享的数据显示，多年来标准普尔 500 指数一直呈现类似的模式。

“The S&P 500 had a net gain of 1 day after the top 3 1-day spikes in the VIX,” Bilello noted. “The average 1-day return was +1.1%.”

Bilello 指出：“在 VIX 出现前 3 个 1 日峰值后，标准普尔 500 指数净收益 1 天。” “平均 1 天回报率为 +1.1%。”

Let's see if history repeats itself. At press time, BTC traded above $102,000 while the S&P 500 futures pointed to a positive open with a 0.37% gain.

让我们看看历史是否会重演。截至发稿时，BTC 交易价格高于 102,000 美元，而标准普尔 500 指数期货开盘上涨 0.37%。