特朗普政府在2025年為加密貨幣行業提供了許多禮物

證券交易委員會（SEC）停止了對主要加密交易所以及Coinbase，Gemini，Gemini，Uniswap，Opensea等公司的執法行動和調查

The Trump Administration has provided the crypto industry with a number of gifts in 2025.

特朗普政府在2025年為加密貨幣行業提供了許多禮物。

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) halted enforcement actions and investigations into major crypto exchanges and companies like Coinbase, Gemini, Uniswap, OpenSea, ConsenSys, and others. The White House issued an Executive Order to promote American leadership in the digital asset industry, and it has made musings about building a bitcoin stockpile.

美國證券交易委員會（SEC）停止了對主要加密交易所以及Coinbase，Gemini，Gemini，Uniswap，Opensea，Consensys等公司等公司的執法行動和調查。白宮發布了一項行政命令，以促進美國在數字資產行業中的領導地位，並為建造比特幣庫存而著迷。

However, none of these actions has been consequential enough to stem the recent decline in the price of bitcoin and negative sentiments in the crypto industry overall. Currently priced at $84,000, Bitcoin is down 18% since Donald Trump’s inauguration, almost 23% since its all time high, and the broader crypto market has fallen by 21%.

但是，這些行動都沒有足夠的影響，無法阻止加密業總體上比特幣價格和負面情緒的下降。自唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）就職典禮以來，比特幣的價格為84,000美元，比特幣下跌了18％，自歷史悠久以來幾乎23％，而且更廣泛的加密貨幣市場下降了21％。

Kavita Gupta, founder and general partner at Delta Blockchain Fund said, “It feels like all of the positive things in crypto are happening because the top people in politics are like, ‘Let’s just do it.’ There is no due process, there’s no due diligence … and this movement can [shift] at any given point of time. It doesn’t seem like sustainability’s there.”

Delta區塊鏈基金會的創始人兼普通合夥人Kavita Gupta說：“感覺就像是加密貨幣中的所有積極的事情正在發生，因為政治上的頂級人士就像，'讓我們做到。'沒有適當的過程，沒有盡職調查……在任何給定時間點都可以[移動]。似乎沒有可持續性。”

Three main forces driving the market down could push it still lower before it regains footing and starts to climb back. In fact, the industry may need to wait until 2026 before it sees sustained bullish momentum again.

將市場推動下降的三個主要力量可能會在恢復基礎並開始向後攀升之前將其推向降低。實際上，該行業可能需要等到2026年才能看到持續的看漲勢頭。

Crypto’s Self-Inflicted Wounds

加密的自我傷口

There is no shortage of reasons to choose from when explaining the recent downturn. First would be the actions of crypto participants.

解釋最近的經濟下滑時，不乏選擇的理由。首先是加密參與者的行動。

For instance, the industry did itself no favors with multiple memecoin fiascos like $MELANIA and then $LIBRA, which ensnared Argentine President Javier Milei in scandal. Now memecoin launches and trading activity are dropping across the industry, leaving questions about its sustainability over the long term. For example, the launch of daily new tokens reached a local top of 66,471 on Jan. 24, just six days after $TRUMP went live. On Feb. 27, the last day of full data available, that number dropped to 27,741, a decline of 58%.

例如，該行業本身並沒有對多個Memecoin Fiascos（如$ Melania和$ libra）的支持，然後將阿根廷總統賈維爾·米利（Javier Milei）陷入了醜聞。現在，Memecoin的推出和交易活動在整個行業中都在下降，從長遠來看，有關其可持續性的疑問。例如，每天的新代幣的推出在1月24日達到了本地最高66,471，就在特朗普上線六天后。 2月27日，即完整數據的最後一天，該數字降至27,741，下降了58％。

Brian Rudick, head of research at GSR, said of these debacles, “Folks had looked at memecoins as the most fair and efficient form of speculation in crypto, but $LIBRA demonstrated that this actually was not true. Now you are seeing a lot less onchain volumes, and [while] memecoins are taking the brunt of it, it’s bringing down the whole crypto space.”

GSR研究負責人布萊恩·魯迪克（Brian Rudick）談到這些脫身時說：“人們將Memecoin視為Crypto中最公平，最有效的投機形式，但$ libra證明這實際上並非如此。現在，您看到的是少量的鏈量，而[Memecoins還是首當其衝，它帶來了整個加密貨幣空間。”

The other punch that really hurt the industry was North Korea’s $1.5 billion hack of Bybit, the largest theft in crypto history, which once again is forcing people to ask whether it is safe to put their money into crypto. “All that these hacks do is make people who are sitting [on the] outside think that this industry, even [over] the last 10 years, has not really gotten mature enough,” said Gupta.

另一個真正損害該行業的一拳是朝鮮的15億美元黑客攻擊，這是加密歷史上最大的盜竊案，這再次迫使人們詢問將錢投入加密貨幣是否安全。古普塔說：“這些駭客所做的就是讓坐在外面的人認為這個行業，即使在過去的十年中，也沒有真正成熟。”

Exogenous Headwinds

外在的逆風

All of this negative sentiment within the industry is being turbocharged by reduced risk appetites among investors more broadly.

整個行業中，所有這些負面情緒都被投資者之間的風險食慾降低所造成的。

Typically consumer optimism surges with the dawn of a new administration, and business leaders initially cheered Trump’s election because of his pro-business mindset. However, multiple new data points suggest that consumer confidence is weakening, likely due to the threats of 25% tariffs from President Trump directed towards trading partners like China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union

通常，隨著新政府的黎明，消費者的樂觀激動，並且由於他的親企業心態，企業領袖最初為特朗普的選舉加油。但是，多個新數據點表明，消費者的信心正在減弱，這可能是由於特朗普總統的25％關稅指向貿易夥伴的威脅，例如中國，加拿大，墨西哥和歐盟

The February report from the nonprofit think tank Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell for the third straight month and reported its lowest reading since August of 2021.

非營利性智囊團會議委員會的消費者信心指數的2月份報告連續第三個月下降，並報告了自2021年8月以來的最低讀數。

These findings dovetail with findings from a University of Michigan survey on consumer sentiment that has shown a major drop-off in consumer confidence. According to the report, “Consumer sentiment extended its early month decline, sliding nearly 10% from January. The decrease was unanimous across groups by age, income, and wealth.”

這些發現與密歇根大學一項有關消費者情緒的調查的發現相吻合，該調查顯示，消費者信心的重大下降。根據該報告，“消費者情緒延長了早期的下降，比一月份下滑了近10％。劃分年齡，收入和財富的群體之間的減少是一致的。”

It went on to say, “Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases. The current reading is now well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.”

它接著說：“預先預期的通貨膨脹預期從上個月的3.3％躍升至本月的4.3％，這是2023年11月以來的最高讀數，標誌著連續兩個月的異常大幅增長。目前的讀數現在遠高於大流行前兩年中的2.3-3.0％範圍。”

These expectations for inflation, which the survey reported span across multiple age groups and income brackets will be especially crucial to watch, since inflation can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Rudick noted, “The last I looked, the CME Fedwatch tool was pricing in two rate cuts this year. I think if those got fully priced out [because of concerns around tariffs], there’d be more downside in the traditional markets than in crypto.”

這些對通貨膨脹的期望，調查報告的跨越多個年齡段和收入範圍對通貨膨脹率尤為重要，因為通貨膨脹可能成為一個自我實現的預言。魯迪克指出：“我看的最後一次，CME FedWatch工具今年的價格為兩次。我認為，如果那些（由於對關稅的擔憂）的價格完全，那麼傳統市場中的缺點比在加密貨幣方面會更多。”

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BTC可以多麼低？