特朗普政府在2025年为加密货币行业提供了许多礼物

证券交易委员会（SEC）停止了对主要加密交易所以及Coinbase，Gemini，Gemini，Uniswap，Opensea等公司的执法行动和调查

The Trump Administration has provided the crypto industry with a number of gifts in 2025.

特朗普政府在2025年为加密货币行业提供了许多礼物。

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) halted enforcement actions and investigations into major crypto exchanges and companies like Coinbase, Gemini, Uniswap, OpenSea, ConsenSys, and others. The White House issued an Executive Order to promote American leadership in the digital asset industry, and it has made musings about building a bitcoin stockpile.

美国证券交易委员会（SEC）停止了对主要加密交易所以及Coinbase，Gemini，Gemini，Uniswap，Opensea，Consensys等公司等公司的执法行动和调查。白宫发布了一项行政命令，以促进美国在数字资产行业中的领导地位，并为建造比特币库存而着迷。

However, none of these actions has been consequential enough to stem the recent decline in the price of bitcoin and negative sentiments in the crypto industry overall. Currently priced at $84,000, Bitcoin is down 18% since Donald Trump’s inauguration, almost 23% since its all time high, and the broader crypto market has fallen by 21%.

但是，这些行动都没有足够的影响，无法阻止加密业总体上比特币价格和负面情绪的下降。自唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）就职典礼以来，比特币的价格为84,000美元，比特币下跌了18％，自历史悠久以来几乎23％，而且更广泛的加密货币市场下降了21％。

Kavita Gupta, founder and general partner at Delta Blockchain Fund said, “It feels like all of the positive things in crypto are happening because the top people in politics are like, ‘Let’s just do it.’ There is no due process, there’s no due diligence … and this movement can [shift] at any given point of time. It doesn’t seem like sustainability’s there.”

Delta区块链基金会的创始人兼普通合伙人Kavita Gupta说：“感觉就像是加密货币中的所有积极的事情正在发生，因为政治上的顶级人士就像，'让我们做到。'没有适当的过程，没有尽职调查……在任何给定时间点都可以[移动]。似乎没有可持续性。”

Three main forces driving the market down could push it still lower before it regains footing and starts to climb back. In fact, the industry may need to wait until 2026 before it sees sustained bullish momentum again.

将市场推动下降的三个主要力量可能会在恢复基础并开始向后攀升之前将其推向降低。实际上，该行业可能需要等到2026年才能看到持续的看涨势头。

Crypto’s Self-Inflicted Wounds

加密的自我伤口

There is no shortage of reasons to choose from when explaining the recent downturn. First would be the actions of crypto participants.

解释最近的经济下滑时，不乏选择的理由。首先是加密参与者的行动。

For instance, the industry did itself no favors with multiple memecoin fiascos like $MELANIA and then $LIBRA, which ensnared Argentine President Javier Milei in scandal. Now memecoin launches and trading activity are dropping across the industry, leaving questions about its sustainability over the long term. For example, the launch of daily new tokens reached a local top of 66,471 on Jan. 24, just six days after $TRUMP went live. On Feb. 27, the last day of full data available, that number dropped to 27,741, a decline of 58%.

例如，该行业本身并没有对多个Memecoin Fiascos（如$ Melania和$ libra）的支持，然后将阿根廷总统贾维尔·米利（Javier Milei）陷入了丑闻。现在，Memecoin的推出和交易活动在整个行业中都在下降，从长远来看，有关其可持续性的疑问。例如，每天的新代币的推出在1月24日达到了本地最高66,471，就在特朗普上线六天后。 2月27日，即完整数据的最后一天，该数字降至27,741，下降了58％。

Brian Rudick, head of research at GSR, said of these debacles, “Folks had looked at memecoins as the most fair and efficient form of speculation in crypto, but $LIBRA demonstrated that this actually was not true. Now you are seeing a lot less onchain volumes, and [while] memecoins are taking the brunt of it, it’s bringing down the whole crypto space.”

GSR研究负责人布莱恩·鲁迪克（Brian Rudick）谈到这些脱身时说：“人们将Memecoin视为Crypto中最公平，最有效的投机形式，但$ libra证明这实际上并非如此。现在，您看到的是少量的链量，而[Memecoins还是首当其冲，它带来了整个加密货币空间。”

The other punch that really hurt the industry was North Korea’s $1.5 billion hack of Bybit, the largest theft in crypto history, which once again is forcing people to ask whether it is safe to put their money into crypto. “All that these hacks do is make people who are sitting [on the] outside think that this industry, even [over] the last 10 years, has not really gotten mature enough,” said Gupta.

另一个真正损害该行业的拳头是朝鲜的15亿美元黑客攻击，这是加密历史上最大的盗窃案，这再次迫使人们询问将钱投入加密货币是否安全。古普塔说：“这些骇客所做的就是让坐在外面的人认为这个行业，即使在过去的十年中，也没有真正成熟。”

Exogenous Headwinds

外在的逆风

All of this negative sentiment within the industry is being turbocharged by reduced risk appetites among investors more broadly.

整个行业中，所有这些负面情绪都被投资者之间的风险食欲降低所造成的。

Typically consumer optimism surges with the dawn of a new administration, and business leaders initially cheered Trump’s election because of his pro-business mindset. However, multiple new data points suggest that consumer confidence is weakening, likely due to the threats of 25% tariffs from President Trump directed towards trading partners like China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union

通常，随着新政府的黎明，消费者的乐观激动，并且由于他的亲企业心态，企业领袖最初为特朗普的选举加油。但是，多个新数据点表明，消费者的信心正在减弱，这可能是由于特朗普总统的25％关税指向贸易伙伴的威胁，例如中国，加拿大，墨西哥和欧盟

The February report from the nonprofit think tank Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell for the third straight month and reported its lowest reading since August of 2021.

非营利性智囊团会议委员会的消费者信心指数的2月份报告连续第三个月下降，并报告了自2021年8月以来的最低读数。

These findings dovetail with findings from a University of Michigan survey on consumer sentiment that has shown a major drop-off in consumer confidence. According to the report, “Consumer sentiment extended its early month decline, sliding nearly 10% from January. The decrease was unanimous across groups by age, income, and wealth.”

这些发现与密歇根大学一项有关消费者情绪的调查的发现相吻合，该调查显示，消费者信心的重大下降。根据该报告，“消费者情绪延长了早期的下降，比一月份下滑了近10％。划分年龄，收入和财富的群体之间的减少是一致的。”

It went on to say, “Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 3.3% last month to 4.3% this month, the highest reading since November 2023 and marking two consecutive months of unusually large increases. The current reading is now well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.”

它接着说：“预先预期的通货膨胀预期从上个月的3.3％跃升至本月的4.3％，这是2023年11月以来的最高读数，标志着连续两个月的异常大幅增长。目前的读数现在远高于大流行前两年中的2.3-3.0％范围。”

These expectations for inflation, which the survey reported span across multiple age groups and income brackets will be especially crucial to watch, since inflation can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Rudick noted, “The last I looked, the CME Fedwatch tool was pricing in two rate cuts this year. I think if those got fully priced out [because of concerns around tariffs], there’d be more downside in the traditional markets than in crypto.”

这些对通货膨胀的期望，调查报告的跨越多个年龄段和收入范围对通货膨胀率尤为重要，因为通货膨胀可能成为一个自我实现的预言。鲁迪克指出：“我看的最后一次，CME FedWatch工具今年的价格为两次。我认为，如果那些（由于对关税的担忧）的价格完全，那么传统市场中的缺点比在加密货币方面会更多。”

How Low Can BTC Go?

BTC可以多么低？