俄羅斯的地下戰：烏克蘭危機導致全球不穩定

對俄羅斯來說，烏克蘭戰爭和烏克蘭戰爭以外的非常規「灰色地帶」戰鬥是相互關聯的戰略，用於破壞對手穩定、轉移注意力和擴大常規戰爭。這些努力包括在歐洲的秘密行動、在非洲的僱傭軍部署以及培養與穆斯林社區的聯繫以建立受俄羅斯影響的「俄羅斯協約」。例如，克里姆林宮認為，破壞非洲穩定將轉移西方資源並緩解俄羅斯在烏克蘭的行動。

Russia's Shadowy War: Destabilizing the World Amidst the Ukraine Conflict

俄羅斯的影子戰爭：烏克蘭衝突破壞世界穩定

In the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia's covert operations and strategic initiatives beyond its borders have become an integral part of its broader geopolitical strategy. Moscow's relentless efforts to destabilize and disrupt its adversaries have unfolded in various arenas, complementing its conventional warfare in Ukraine.

在烏克蘭衝突持續的背景下，俄羅斯在境外的秘密行動和戰略舉措已成為其更廣泛地緣政治戰略的組成部分。莫斯科在各個領域不斷努力破壞對手的穩定和擾亂，與其在烏克蘭的常規戰爭相輔相成。

The Kremlin's belief that sowing discord in Africa would alleviate pressure on its Ukrainian campaign underscores the interconnectedness of Russia's unconventional and conventional warfare tactics. By diverting Western attention and resources, Moscow aims to ease its military burden in Ukraine, demonstrating the strategic alignment between these seemingly disparate operations.

克里姆林宮相信在非洲挑撥離間可以減輕其烏克蘭戰役的壓力，這突顯了俄羅斯非常規和常規戰爭策略的相互關聯性。透過轉移西方的注意力和資源，莫斯科旨在減輕其在烏克蘭的軍事負擔，展示這些看似不同的行動之間的戰略一致性。

Britain's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has documented Russia's multifaceted unconventional warfare approach, encompassing covert operations in Europe, mercenary deployments in Africa, and cultivated ties with Muslim communities in Central Asia and Europe. These activities serve as a precursor to conventional military force, creating favorable conditions for its successful application.

英國皇家聯合軍種研究所（RUSI）記錄了俄羅斯多方面的非常規戰爭方式，包括在歐洲的秘密行動、在非洲的僱傭軍部署以及與中亞和歐洲的穆斯林社區培養聯繫。這些活動是常規軍事力量的前身，為其成功運用創造了有利條件。

In Ukraine, Russia has sought to incite street protests as a pretext for military intervention, leveraging collaborators within the Ukrainian government and exploiting vulnerabilities within its political landscape. Similarly, in Moldova, Russia hoped to capitalize on protests to justify military intervention by pro-Russian leaders, but the perceived weakness of Russia's military performance in Ukraine has instilled caution among these leaders.

在烏克蘭，俄羅斯試圖煽動街頭抗議，作為軍事幹預的藉口，利用烏克蘭政府內部的合作者並利用其政治格局中的脆弱性。同樣，在摩爾多瓦，俄羅斯希望利用抗議活動來證明親俄領導人的軍事幹預是合理的，但俄羅斯在烏克蘭軍事表現的弱點讓這些領導人感到謹慎。

While Russia's unconventional warfare capabilities have been steadily rebuilt, its intelligence agencies have encountered setbacks. The 161st Intelligence Specialists Training Center, tasked with sabotage, subversion, and assassination, has experienced repeated operational failures, including a foiled coup attempt in Montenegro and futile efforts to foster violence in Ukraine and Moldova. These failures have been attributed to poor operational security, inaccurate assessments of Russian influence, and the expulsion of Russian diplomats and spies from European nations.

儘管俄羅斯的非常規戰爭能力穩步重建，但其情報機構卻遭遇挫折。承擔破壞、顛覆和暗殺任務的第 161 情報專家培訓中心在行動上屢屢失敗，包括黑山政變未遂以及在烏克蘭和摩爾多瓦煽動暴力的徒勞努力。這些失敗的原因是行動安全不佳、對俄羅斯影響力的評估不準確以及俄羅斯外交官和間諜被驅逐出歐洲國家。

Despite these setbacks, Russia remains undeterred in its pursuit of unconventional warfare capabilities. It has shifted its support network for European agents from Russian businessmen and expatriates to the Russian mafia and foreign students recruited at Russian universities.

儘管遭遇這些挫折，俄羅斯仍然毫不畏懼地追求非常規戰爭能力。它已將對歐洲特工的支持網絡從俄羅斯商人和僑民轉向俄羅斯黑手黨和在俄羅斯大學招募的外國學生。

As the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, Russia's interest in fomenting crises beyond its borders has grown. The Balkans offer a fertile ground for such endeavors, and Russia is actively seeking to destabilize Ukraine's partners and exacerbate polarization in Europe.

隨著烏克蘭衝突愈演愈烈，俄羅斯煽動境外危機的興趣日益濃厚。巴爾幹地區為此類努力提供了肥沃的土壤，而俄羅斯正在積極尋求破壞烏克蘭合作夥伴的穩定並加劇歐洲的兩極化。

In Africa and the Middle East, Russia's state-sponsored mercenaries are expanding their presence, providing military support to dictators and warlords. The once-infamous Wagner Group appears to have been subsumed, while Russia now offers a comprehensive "regime survival package" to support clients against threats from Islamic rebels and rival factions.

在非洲和中東，俄羅斯國家支持的僱傭軍正在擴大其存在，為獨裁者和軍閥提供軍事支援。曾經臭名昭著的瓦格納集團似乎已被納入其中，而俄羅斯現在提供全面的“政權生存一攬子計劃”，以支持客戶抵禦伊斯蘭叛亂分子和敵對派系的威脅。

Through the GRU, Russia seeks to establish an "Entente Roscolonial," a network of states aligned with Russia and beholden to its influence, displacing Western interests in Africa and the Middle East.

俄羅斯試圖透過格魯烏建立一個“俄羅斯殖民協約”，這是一個與俄羅斯結盟並受其影響的國家網絡，取代西方在非洲和中東的利益。

Simultaneously, Ramzan Kadyrov, the influential leader of Chechnya, is striving to extend Moscow's influence among Muslim populations in Central Asia and the Balkans. Russian propaganda and covert networks seek to portray Kadyrov as a champion of Islam, contrasting him with Western adversaries intent on dismantling traditional values.

同時，車臣頗具影響力的領導人拉姆贊·卡德羅夫正努力擴大莫斯科對中亞和巴爾幹半島穆斯林人口的影響力。俄羅斯的宣傳和秘密網絡試圖將卡德羅夫描繪成伊斯蘭教的捍衛者，將他與意圖瓦解傳統價值的西方對手進行對比。

However, Russia itself has become a target of Islamist terror groups such as ISIS-K, which claimed responsibility for a deadly attack in Moscow in 2023.

然而，俄羅斯本身已成為 ISIS-K 等伊斯蘭恐怖組織的目標，該組織聲稱對 2023 年莫斯科發生的致命攻擊負責。

According to RUSI experts, Western defense against Russian unconventional warfare lies not in countering Moscow's propaganda but in severing Russia's access to elites and its support apparatus for active measures. This can be achieved through the detection and apprehension of its agents and intelligence officers.

RUSI專家認為，西方對俄羅斯非常規戰爭的防禦不在於對抗莫斯科的宣傳，而是切斷俄羅斯與菁英及其支持機構的聯繫以採取積極措施。這可以透過偵查和逮捕其特工和情報官員來實現。

Nonetheless, the West must avoid becoming overly repressive or paranoid. Countering Russian unconventional warfare requires careful, selective, and intelligence-driven targeting, based on a thorough understanding of Russian methods to prevent unnecessary alarm.

儘管如此，西方必須避免變得過度鎮壓或偏執。對抗俄羅斯的非常規戰爭需要在徹底了解俄羅斯防止不必要恐慌的方法的基礎上，進行謹慎、選擇性和情報驅動的瞄準。

Michael Peck, a renowned defense writer, emphasizes that the West's response to Russian unconventional warfare must be measured and precise, prioritizing the exposure and disruption of Russia's covert networks while maintaining a balance between vigilance and excessive reaction.

著名國防作家邁克爾·佩克強調，西方對俄羅斯非常規戰爭的反應必須謹慎而精確，優先暴露和破壞俄羅斯的秘密網絡，同時保持警惕和過度反應之間的平衡。