Russia's Subterranean Warfare: Global Destabilization Amidst Ukraine Crisis

To Russia, the Ukraine war and unconventional "gray zone" fights beyond it are interconnected strategies used to destabilize adversaries, divert attention, and amplify conventional warfare. These efforts involve covert operations in Europe, mercenary deployments in Africa, and cultivating ties with Muslim communities to create an "Entente Roscolonial" under Russian influence. The Kremlin believes that destabilizing Africa, for example, will divert Western resources and ease Russia's campaign in Ukraine.

Russia's Shadowy War: Destabilizing the World Amidst the Ukraine Conflict

In the backdrop of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Russia's covert operations and strategic initiatives beyond its borders have become an integral part of its broader geopolitical strategy. Moscow's relentless efforts to destabilize and disrupt its adversaries have unfolded in various arenas, complementing its conventional warfare in Ukraine.

The Kremlin's belief that sowing discord in Africa would alleviate pressure on its Ukrainian campaign underscores the interconnectedness of Russia's unconventional and conventional warfare tactics. By diverting Western attention and resources, Moscow aims to ease its military burden in Ukraine, demonstrating the strategic alignment between these seemingly disparate operations.

Britain's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has documented Russia's multifaceted unconventional warfare approach, encompassing covert operations in Europe, mercenary deployments in Africa, and cultivated ties with Muslim communities in Central Asia and Europe. These activities serve as a precursor to conventional military force, creating favorable conditions for its successful application.

In Ukraine, Russia has sought to incite street protests as a pretext for military intervention, leveraging collaborators within the Ukrainian government and exploiting vulnerabilities within its political landscape. Similarly, in Moldova, Russia hoped to capitalize on protests to justify military intervention by pro-Russian leaders, but the perceived weakness of Russia's military performance in Ukraine has instilled caution among these leaders.

While Russia's unconventional warfare capabilities have been steadily rebuilt, its intelligence agencies have encountered setbacks. The 161st Intelligence Specialists Training Center, tasked with sabotage, subversion, and assassination, has experienced repeated operational failures, including a foiled coup attempt in Montenegro and futile efforts to foster violence in Ukraine and Moldova. These failures have been attributed to poor operational security, inaccurate assessments of Russian influence, and the expulsion of Russian diplomats and spies from European nations.

Despite these setbacks, Russia remains undeterred in its pursuit of unconventional warfare capabilities. It has shifted its support network for European agents from Russian businessmen and expatriates to the Russian mafia and foreign students recruited at Russian universities.

As the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, Russia's interest in fomenting crises beyond its borders has grown. The Balkans offer a fertile ground for such endeavors, and Russia is actively seeking to destabilize Ukraine's partners and exacerbate polarization in Europe.

In Africa and the Middle East, Russia's state-sponsored mercenaries are expanding their presence, providing military support to dictators and warlords. The once-infamous Wagner Group appears to have been subsumed, while Russia now offers a comprehensive "regime survival package" to support clients against threats from Islamic rebels and rival factions.

Through the GRU, Russia seeks to establish an "Entente Roscolonial," a network of states aligned with Russia and beholden to its influence, displacing Western interests in Africa and the Middle East.

Simultaneously, Ramzan Kadyrov, the influential leader of Chechnya, is striving to extend Moscow's influence among Muslim populations in Central Asia and the Balkans. Russian propaganda and covert networks seek to portray Kadyrov as a champion of Islam, contrasting him with Western adversaries intent on dismantling traditional values.

However, Russia itself has become a target of Islamist terror groups such as ISIS-K, which claimed responsibility for a deadly attack in Moscow in 2023.

According to RUSI experts, Western defense against Russian unconventional warfare lies not in countering Moscow's propaganda but in severing Russia's access to elites and its support apparatus for active measures. This can be achieved through the detection and apprehension of its agents and intelligence officers.

Nonetheless, the West must avoid becoming overly repressive or paranoid. Countering Russian unconventional warfare requires careful, selective, and intelligence-driven targeting, based on a thorough understanding of Russian methods to prevent unnecessary alarm.

Michael Peck, a renowned defense writer, emphasizes that the West's response to Russian unconventional warfare must be measured and precise, prioritizing the exposure and disruption of Russia's covert networks while maintaining a balance between vigilance and excessive reaction.