雷·達裡奧警告全球債務危機即將來臨，建議投資人專注於比特幣等有形資產

Ray Dalio 是 Bridgewater Associates 的創辦人，擔任首席資訊長導師，並且仍然是該公司董事會的活躍成員。

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned of an approaching global debt crisis, which he believes could lead to a significant drop in the value of fiat money.

億萬富翁投資者雷·達裡奧（Ray Dalio）警告稱，全球債務危機即將來臨，他認為這可能會導致法定貨幣價值大幅下跌。

Speaking on Tuesday during the Abu Dhabi Finance Week (ADFW) in the United Arab Emirates, Dalio advised investors to avoid debt-based investments such as bonds and instead focus on tangible assets like gold and Bitcoin.

週二，達利奧在阿拉伯聯合大公國阿布達比金融週（ADFW）期間發表講話，建議投資者避免債券等債務投資，轉而關注黃金和比特幣等有形資產。

"I think there's a debt crisis approaching, and I think that people should be preparing for a scenario where the value of fiat money will go down substantially,” said Dalio, the Founder of Bridgewater Associates, where he serves as a CIO Mentor and remains an active member of the firm’s board.

橋水基金創辦人達利奧表示：「我認為債務危機即將來臨，人們應該為法定貨幣價值大幅下跌的情況做好準備。」公司董事會的活躍成員。

"I would be advising people to be decreasing their exposure to debt-like instruments, and I would be advising them to be increasing their exposure to non-debt-like instruments. I would be advising them to be thinking in terms of the very long run rather than reacting to the news of each day."

“我會建議人們減少對債務類工具的敞口，並建議他們增加對非債務類工具的敞口。我會建議他們從長期角度考慮跑步而不是對每天的新聞做出反應。”

Despite once being skeptical about Bitcoin, Dalio now sees it as a reliable asset, comparable to gold. He suggests allocating 1-2% of investment portfolios to Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, while still promoting diversification.

儘管達裡奧曾經對比特幣持懷疑態度，但現在將其視為一種可靠的資產，可與黃金相媲美。他建議將 1-2% 的投資組合分配給比特幣，以對沖通膨，同時仍促進多元化。

"I used to think that Bitcoin was like Beanie Babies, but I've changed my mind over the last few years,” said Dalio. "I now believe that it's more like gold. I think it's a miracle that over 13 years, despite all the ups and downs, Bitcoin has never been hacked. I believe that you should be putting 1-2% of your portfolio in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge, but remember to diversify your investments."

達裡奧說：「我曾經認為比特幣就像豆豆寶寶，但在過去幾年裡我改變了主意。」「我現在認為它更像黃金。我認為 13 年來，儘管經歷了種種風風雨雨，比特幣從未遭到駭客攻擊，這真是個奇蹟。我認為你應該將投資組合的 1-2% 投資於比特幣作為通膨對沖，但請記住投資多元化。

On April 18, Dalio published a LinkedIn post titled “Do You Have Enough Non-Debt Money?, ” in which he began by defining good money as being both a good medium of exchange and a good storehold of wealth that is widely accepted around the world.

4 月18 日，達裡奧在LinkedIn 上發表了一篇題為“你有足夠的非債務貨幣嗎？”的帖子，其中他首先將好貨幣定義為既是良好的交換媒介，又是良好的財富儲存手段，這一點在全球範圍內得到了廣泛接受。

He went on to identify the dollar, euro, yen, and Chinese renminbi as the most globally recognized and accepted currencies, before noting that they are all debt-backed monies.

他接著指出美元、歐元、日圓和人民幣是全球最受認可和接受的貨幣，然後指出它們都是債務支持貨幣。

"When you hold these monies, you are holding debt liabilities, which are promises to deliver you money,” wrote Dalio. "These debt liabilities are good as long as there is a high probability that the debts will get paid back to you in a good currency, meaning a currency that other people want."

達利奧寫道：「當你持有這些錢時，你就持有債務負債，這些債務是給你帶來錢的承諾。」「只要債務很有可能在一定時間內償還給你，這些債務負債就是好的。

However, Dalio cautioned that when there are significant risks of debts not being paid back or being paid back with money of depreciated value, the debt and the money become unattractive.

不過，達利奧警告說，當存在債務無法償還或用貶值的錢償還的重大風險時，債務和金錢就會變得沒有吸引力。

"When a government has too much debt to be paid, its central bank is likely to print money to pay the debts, which will lead to inflation and cause the value of the currency to go down,” he explained.

他解釋說：“當政府有太多債務需要償還時，其央行可能會印鈔票來償還債務，這將導致通貨膨脹並導致貨幣貶值。”

"In contrast to debt-backed currencies, gold is a non-debt-backed form of money. You can think of it as being like cash, except cash and bonds are devalued by risks of default and inflation, while gold is supported by risks of debt defaults and inflation."

「與債務支持的貨幣相比，黃金是一種非債務支持的貨幣形式。你可以將其視為現金，只不過現金和債券會因違約和通膨風險而貶值，而黃金則受到風險的支撐債務違約和通貨膨脹。

Dalio highlighted that gold is the third-most-held reserve currency by central banks, surpassing the yen and renminbi.

達裡奧強調，黃金是央行持有的第三大儲備貨幣，超過日圓和人民幣。

"It's interesting to note that some people might argue that gems and art act in a way that is similar to gold due to their non-debt nature, portability, and wide acceptance as storeholds of wealth,” he added.

「有趣的是，有些人可能會認為寶石和藝術品的行為方式與黃金類似，因為它們的非債務性質、便攜性以及作為財富儲藏手段的廣泛接受，」他補充道。

"When the financial system is functioning well, with borrower-debtor governments meeting their obligations without resorting to money printing and devaluation, debt assets and other financial assets are good to hold."

“當金融體系運作良好，借款人和債務人政府在不訴諸印鈔和貶值的情況下履行其義務時，債務資產和其他金融資產就值得持有。”

"However, when debt and inflation crises arise, gold becomes a valuable asset to own. This is the main reason that gold is a good diversifier and why I have some in my portfolio."

「然而，當債務和通膨危機出現時，黃金就成為一種值得擁有的寶貴資產。這是黃金是良好的分散投資工具的主要原因，也是我在投資組合中持有黃金的主要原因。”