研究人員發現，內特·西爾弗 (Nate Silver) 吹捧的選舉預測市場 Polymarket 受到虛假交易的困擾

根據該平台，唐納德·川普目前有 67% 的獲勝機會。但兩家加密貨幣研究公司的分析師發現了 Polymarket 洗盤交易猖獗的證據

Analysis by two crypto research firms has revealed evidence of extensive wash trading on Polymarket, despite the platform’s odds being widely shared in both social and mainstream media. Notably, the platform currently indicates a 67% chance of victory for Donald Trump.

兩家加密貨幣研究公司的分析揭示了 Polymarket 上存在大量清洗交易的證據，儘管該平台的賠率在社交和主流媒體上得到了廣泛傳播。值得注意的是，該平台目前顯示唐納德·川普獲勝的幾率為 67%。

In separate investigations conducted by blockchain firms Chaos Labs and Inca Digital and shared exclusively with Fortune, analysts discovered that Polymarket activity exhibited signs of wash trading. This practice involves manipulating the market by buying and selling shares, often simultaneously and repeatedly, to create a false impression of volume and activity.

在區塊鏈公司 Chaos Labs 和 Inca Digital 進行的單獨調查中，分析師發現 Polymarket 活動表現出虛假交易的跡象，並獨家與《財富》雜誌分享。這種做法涉及透過經常同時重複地買賣股票來操縱市場，以造成成交量和活動的錯誤印象。

Chaos Labs found that wash trading constituted approximately one-third of trading volume on Polymarket’s presidential market. Meanwhile, Inca Digital’s report suggests that a “significant portion of the volume” on the market could be attributed to potential wash trading.

Chaos Labs 發現清洗交易約佔 Polymarket 總統市場交易量的三分之一。同時，Inca Digital 的報告表明，市場上的「很大一部分交易量」可能歸因於潛在的清洗交易。

Since a pivotal court decision in September legalized electoral betting, several prediction markets, including Kalshi and Robinhood, have been launched in the U.S. However, Polymarket remains the largest platform by far, thanks in part to its crypto-native design and offshore operations. It is worth noting that Polymarket remains inaccessible to U.S. investors.

自9 月法院做出的一項關鍵決定使選舉博彩合法化以來，包括Kalshi 和Robinhood 在內的多個預測市場已在美國推出。原生設計和離岸業務。值得注意的是，美國投資者仍然無法進入 Polymarket。

With less than a week until the U.S. elections, the suspicious activity on Polymarket raises questions about the accuracy of the site, which its 26-year-old founder Shayne Copland has touted can “demystify the real world events that matter most to you.”

距離美國大選還有不到一周的時間，Polymarket 上的可疑活動引發了對該網站準確性的質疑，該網站26 歲的創始人Shayne Copland 宣稱該網站可以「揭開對你來說最重要的現實世界事件的神秘面紗」。

A request for comment from Polymarket went unanswered.

Polymarket 的置評請求未得到回應。

The rise of prediction markets

預測市場的興起

Founded in 2020 and backed by VCs including Founders Fund, Polymarket initially attempted to launch electoral betting in the U.S. However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission forced the platform offshore in early 2022.

Polymarket 成立於 2020 年，並獲得了 Founders Fund 等創投公司的支持，最初試圖在美國推出選舉博彩，但商品期貨交易委員會於 2022 年初迫使該平台離開海外。

In contrast to competitors like PredictIt and Kalshi, which recently prevailed in a lawsuit against the CFTC to operate in the U.S., Polymarket operates its platform on the blockchain Ethereum. According to Coplan, the crypto element provides greater visibility into its trading activity. “The beauty of Polymarket is it’s all peer-to-peer and transparent,” he recently posted on X.

PredictIt 和 Kalshi 等競爭對手最近在針對美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 的訴訟中獲勝，與它們不同的是，Polymarket 在區塊鏈以太坊上運營其平台。根據科普蘭的說法，加密元素提供了對其交易活動的更大可見性。 「Polymarket 的美妙之處在於它都是點對點且透明的，」他最近在 X 上發文說。

Outlets from the Wall Street Journal to Fortune reported the betting odds on Polymarket in addition to more traditional metrics like polling data, highlighting the platform’s increased visibility during the recent presidential election. In a sign of growing credibility around prediction markets, polling star Nate Silver joined Polymarket as an advisor in July.

從《華爾街日報》到《財富》雜誌，除了民調數據等更傳統的指標外，還報導了 Polymarket 的投注賠率，突顯該平台在最近的總統選舉期間知名度的提高。民調明星 Nate Silver 於 7 月加入 Polymarket 擔任顧問，這表明預測市場的可信度不斷提高。

However, Polymarket’s crypto design and offshore operations have drawn scrutiny from other quarters. This includes recent reports claiming there is manipulative trading on the site—most notably by a single French trader who allegedly caused Trump’s odds to soar. Polymarket has insisted that the user has “extensive trading experience” and was not acting nefariously.

然而，Polymarket 的加密貨幣設計和離岸業務引起了其他方面的審查。其中包括最近聲稱該網站存在操縱交易的報告——最引人注目的是一名法國交易員，據稱他導致川普的勝算飆升。 Polymarket 堅稱該用戶擁有「豐富的交易經驗」且沒有惡意行為。

Wash trading

清洗交易

The evidence of wash trading on the platform appears to be a serious indication of misbehavior. To conduct its analysis, Chaos Labs examined on-chain data to identify high-volume traders, filtering out users who were likely engaged in normal activities like market making. It then separated users who exhibited signs of wash trading by examining their ratio of buy and sell orders and taking account of their share holdings compared to their trading volume. Chaos Labs concluded that around one-third of trading volume—and overall users—on the presidential market alone was likely wash trading, along with across all markets.

該平台上洗售交易的證據似乎是不當行為的嚴重跡象。為了進行分析，Chaos Labs 檢查了鏈上數據，以識別大交易量的交易者，過濾掉可能從事做市等正常活動的用戶。然後，它透過檢查買入和賣出訂單的比率，並考慮其持股量與交易量的比較，來區分出現清洗交易跡象的用戶。 Chaos Labs 得出的結論是，僅總統市場上以及所有市場上的交易量和整體用戶中就有大約三分之一可能是洗盤交易。

This practice is common across crypto applications, especially ones with the potential for future token launches and airdrops, where users often earn tokens based on activity. In September, The Information reported that Polymarket has explored launching its own proprietary token.

這種做法在加密應用程式中很常見，尤其是那些有可能在未來發布代幣和空投的應用程序，用戶通常會根據活動賺取代幣。 9 月，The Information 報導 Polymarket 已探索推出自己的專有代幣。

“The challenges of prediction markets are not unlike those of any other application with a market,” said Omer Goldberg, the founder of Chaos Labs, which is backed by Haun Ventures and develops data integrity software. “Wash trading is not specific to Polymarket.”

Chaos Labs 的創辦人 Omer Goldberg 表示：「預測市場面臨的挑戰與任何其他有市場的應用程式所面臨的挑戰沒有什麼不同。」Chaos Labs 得到 Haun Ventures 的支持，並開發資料完整性軟體。 “洗售交易並不是 Polymarket 特有的。”

Trading volume

交易量

Both Chaos Labs and Inca Digital discovered another anomaly on Polymarket: The purported trading volume on its presidential market, reported in U.S. dollars on Polymarket’s website, does not match the on-chain data. Inca found the actual transaction volume on the presidential betting market to be around $1.75 billion, compared to Polymarket’s reported figure of $2.7 billion.

Chaos Labs 和 Inca Digital 都發現了 Polymarket 的另一個異常現象：Polymarket 網站上以美元報告的總統市場交易量與鏈上數據不符。 Inca 發現總統博彩市場的實際交易額約為 17.5 億美元，而 Polymarket 報告的數字為 27 億美元。

According to Chaos Labs, this is because Polymarket conflates traded shares with U.S. dollars. To clarify, users can buy shares of candidates at different odds. A “yes” share of Hillary Clinton for president costs just $0.01, given the vast unlikelihood that she will be elected, but Chaos Labs found that Polymarket is reporting that share as $1 of volume.

據 Chaos Labs 稱，這是因為 Polymarket 將交易股票與美元混為一談。需要澄清的是，用戶可以以不同的賠率購買候選人的股票。鑑於希拉蕊·柯林頓當選總統的可能性極小，「同意」的希拉蕊·柯林頓總統份額只需 0.01 美元，但 Chaos Labs 發現 Polymarket 報告的份額為 1 美元。

This discrepancy, coupled with the wash trading, highlights the untested nature of a platform on which many rely for signals about the presidential election.

這種差異，加上清洗交易，凸顯了這個平台未經測試的性質，許多人依賴該平台來獲取有關總統選舉的訊號。

However, Polymarket’s decision to operate on blockchain rails also means that researchers like Chaos Labs and Inca Digital can analyze activity. Coplan has

然而，Polymarket 決定在區塊鏈軌道上運作也意味著 Chaos Labs 和 Inca Digital 等研究人員可以分析活動。科普蘭有