我以自己的樂觀而聞名。我試圖給人們一些建造的東西，而不僅僅是要擔心的東西。

我試圖給人們一些建造的東西，而不僅僅是要擔心的東西。但是在過去幾個月的霧中，亮點很昏暗

I’m known for my optimism. I try to give people something to build, not just something to worry about. But in the fog of the past few months, the bright spots have been dim—distant, even. And as much as I hate being the bearer of dread, I’m increasingly concerned.

我以自己的樂觀而聞名。我試圖給人們一些建造的東西，而不僅僅是要擔心的東西。但是在過去的幾個月的霧中，亮點變得昏暗，甚至是。儘管我討厭成為恐懼的承載者，但我越來越擔心。

About the economy. About blockchain. About trust, civics, and the unseen hands moving global narratives like pieces on a board.

關於經濟。關於區塊鏈。關於信任，公民和看不見的雙手，將全球敘事移動到董事會上。

Let’s start with the obvious: the United States government is on the precipice of a fiscal cliff. It must refinance trillions of dollars in debt in an environment of stubbornly high interest rates. This alone would be enough to rattle global markets, but add to that a chaotic stew of trade policy, erratic tariffs, and election-season brinkmanship—and we’ve got a recipe for engineered collapse. President Donald Trump, now back in the driver’s seat, has every incentive to try and crash the economy now to bring rates down later, softening the path for long-term debt service and legacy preservation over the long term, so I am not bullish on anything in the short term.

讓我們從顯而易見的開始：美國政府正處於財政懸崖的懸崖上。在固執的高利率環境中，它必須為債務再融資數万億美元。僅此一項就足以使全球市場嘎嘎作響，但加上貿易政策，不穩定的關稅和選舉季節的邊緣人的混亂炖肉，我們還有一個工程崩潰的食譜。總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）現在回到駕駛員的席位，這一切都有動力試圖使經濟崩潰，以便以後降低利率，從而減輕了長期債務服務和遺產保存的道路，因此我在短期內都不對任何事情看漲。

It's very clear what's happening:President Trump now believes "short term pain" is his ONLY option to lower inflation and refinance $9+ trillion of US debt.We have seen over -$5 TRILLION erased from US stocks with the goal of LOWERING rates.Will it work? (a thread) pic.twitter.com/QlQYU65AZT

很明顯，發生了什麼事：特朗普總統現在認為“短期痛苦”是他降低通貨膨脹和再融資9多美元以上的美國債務的唯一選擇。我們已經從美國股票中刪除了超過5萬億美元，目的是降低利率。​​它將起作用嗎？ （線程）pic.twitter.com/qlqyu65azt

But is it just economics?

但這只是經濟學嗎？

I have also seen a marked uptick in bot activity across X and Facebook. Every mundane post becomes a political minefield. “What are you cooking for dinner?” invites 400 comments about immigration, vaccines, Russia/Ukraine, Hunter Biden, Israel/Palestine, Elon Musk… That’s not organic.

我還看到了X和Facebook的機器人活動的明顯增長。每個平凡的職位成為政治雷區。 “你在晚餐時做什麼？”邀請400條有關移民，疫苗，俄羅斯/烏克蘭，亨特·拜登，以色列/巴勒斯坦，埃隆·馬斯克的評論……這不是有機的。

And what about the vandalism and protests at Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)? The sudden outpouring of rage toward a company that was, just yesterday, a darling of the progressive elite—now defaced and attacked by what looks like a well-funded, well-coordinated machine.

特斯拉（納斯達克：TSLA）的故意破壞和抗議呢？昨天，這是一家進步精英的寵兒，憤怒突然湧向一家公司，現在被一台資金充足，協調良好的機器所污損和攻擊。

The Elon Musk Tesla protests ARE PAIDWatch as these protesters pick through a pile of pre-made signs provided to them. This is all BEING FUNDED by Democrat donors and activist NGO groups. We demand investigations and accountability into the money trail pic.twitter.com/0gbH63GPEZ

埃隆·馬斯克·特斯拉（Elon Musk Tesla）的抗議活動是付費觀看的，因為這些抗議者通過提供的一堆預製標誌來選擇。這一切都是由民主黨捐助者和激進組織組織資助的。我們要求調查和責任制貨幣trail.twitter.com/0gbh63gpez

And that’s actually even scarier to think about. If it’s not organic, who’s funding it, and to what end?

這實際上甚至更可怕。如果不是有機的，誰在為它提供資金，什麼目的是什麼？

Even closer to home, Trump’s blockchain policy strikes me as incoherent at best and dangerously corrupt at worst. I’ve tried to be fair to Trump over the years. I don’t worship him. I don’t hate him. But when a sitting president aligns himself with Arthur Hayes—convicted of financial crimes and co-founder of BitMEX—to issue a pardon, I wonder who is paying the bills. I can see why, even if largely guilty, someone like Ross Ulbricht didn’t deserve to die in prison because he was young and idealistic when Silk Road started, and there is an argument to be made that it all got out of hand in a way that wasn’t as much malicious as it was circumstantial.

特朗普的區塊鏈政策更靠近家，使我充滿了不一致的人，最壞的情況是危險的腐敗。這些年來，我試圖對特朗普保持公平。我不崇拜他。我不恨他。但是，當一位現任總統與亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）保持一致（由金融犯罪和Bitmex的聯合創始人）簽發時，我不知道是誰付款。我可以理解為什麼，即使有罪，像羅斯·烏爾布里希特（Ross Ulbricht）這樣的人也不應該在監獄裡死，因為當絲綢之路開始時他年輕且理想主義，而且有一個論點是，這一切都以一種不那麼惡意的方式失控了。

This is not the case with BitMEX. The exchange is a sophisticated business that was built and operated by sophisticated people with experience in the business of this sector with clear knowledge of KYC/AML laws that they were breaking on purpose. They knew the risks going in, and their punishments were largely slaps on the wrist that included some basic fines and probation.

Bitmex並非如此。該交易所是一家複雜的業務，由成熟的人建立和運營，在該行業的業務中經驗豐富，對KYC/AML法律有明確的了解，他們故意破裂。他們知道冒險的風險，他們的懲罰在很大程度上是手腕上的一巴掌，其中包括一些基本的罰款和緩刑。

Why bother? Why waste political capital for brazen white-collar criminals? Well, the mainstream of the cryptosphere thinks they are heroes!

為什麼要打擾？為什麼要浪費大膽的白領罪犯的政治資本？好吧，加密層的主流認為他們是英雄！

Trump pardoned the BitMEX team – Arthur Hayes, Ben Delo, and Sam Reed. The visionaries at BitMEX invented the perpetual swap, pioneered 24/7 leverage, and reshaped global finance. This lawfare just got corrected! Bullish. pic.twitter.com / 96z8r8Z76

特朗普赦免了Bitmex團隊 - 亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes），本·德洛（Ben Delo）和薩姆·里德（Sam Reed）。 Bitmex的有遠見者發明了永久交換，開創性的24/7槓桿和重塑全球金融。該法律剛剛得到糾正！看漲。 pic.twitter.com / 96z8r8z76

What happened to principle? What happened to transparency? Why not also pardon Roger Ver? Or does he deserve to die in prison because he’s not a BTC insider?

原則發生了什麼？透明發生了什麼？為什麼不赦免羅傑·韋爾（Roger Ver）？還是因為他不是BTC內部人士，他應該在監獄裡死嗎？

And before we forget about Ross (again,) if the President believes Ross deserves a pardon—and we know he does—then shouldn’t the conversation also include the restitution of Ross’s assets? Otherwise, it just looks like another cynical move: confiscate assets, give yourself credit for their increase in value, and call it “strategy” to get along with Miami Mike’s narrative about permanent bullishness.

在我們忘記羅斯（再次）之前，如果總統認為羅斯應該赦免，我們知道他確實如此，那麼談話還不應該包括歸還羅斯的資產嗎？否則，它看起來像是另一個憤世嫉俗的舉動：沒收資產，讓自己讚揚其價值的增加，並稱其為“策略”，以與邁阿密邁克關於永久看漲的敘述相處。

I would say I’m confused, except that would require me assuming good faith from anyone in the conversation.

我會說我很困惑，除了這需要我在談話中任何人的真誠。

If Trump wants to advocate for a Bitcoin strategy or even a vague blockchain strategy, why not embrace people without serious

如果特朗普想提倡比特幣策略甚至模糊的區塊鏈策略，為什麼不擁抱沒有認真的人