我以自己的乐观而闻名。我试图给人们一些建造的东西，而不仅仅是要担心的东西。

我试图给人们一些建造的东西，而不仅仅是要担心的东西。但是在过去几个月的雾中，亮点很昏暗

I’m known for my optimism. I try to give people something to build, not just something to worry about. But in the fog of the past few months, the bright spots have been dim—distant, even. And as much as I hate being the bearer of dread, I’m increasingly concerned.

我以自己的乐观而闻名。我试图给人们一些建造的东西，而不仅仅是要担心的东西。但是在过去的几个月的雾中，亮点变得昏暗，甚至是。尽管我讨厌成为恐惧的承载者，但我越来越担心。

About the economy. About blockchain. About trust, civics, and the unseen hands moving global narratives like pieces on a board.

关于经济。关于区块链。关于信任，公民和看不见的双手，将全球叙事移动到董事会上。

Let’s start with the obvious: the United States government is on the precipice of a fiscal cliff. It must refinance trillions of dollars in debt in an environment of stubbornly high interest rates. This alone would be enough to rattle global markets, but add to that a chaotic stew of trade policy, erratic tariffs, and election-season brinkmanship—and we’ve got a recipe for engineered collapse. President Donald Trump, now back in the driver’s seat, has every incentive to try and crash the economy now to bring rates down later, softening the path for long-term debt service and legacy preservation over the long term, so I am not bullish on anything in the short term.

让我们从显而易见的开始：美国政府正处于财政悬崖的悬崖上。在固执的高利率环境中，它必须为债务再融资数万亿美元。仅此一项就足以使全球市场嘎嘎作响，但加上贸易政策，不稳定的关税和选举季节的边缘人的混乱炖肉，我们还有一个工程崩溃的食谱。总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）现在回到驾驶员的席位，这一切都有动力试图使经济崩溃，以便以后降低利率，从而减轻了长期债务服务和遗产保存的道路，因此我在短期内都不对任何事情看涨。

It's very clear what's happening:President Trump now believes "short term pain" is his ONLY option to lower inflation and refinance $9+ trillion of US debt.We have seen over -$5 TRILLION erased from US stocks with the goal of LOWERING rates.Will it work? (a thread) pic.twitter.com/QlQYU65AZT

很明显，发生了什么事：特朗普总统现在认为“短期痛苦”是他降低通货膨胀和再融资9多美元以上的美国债务的唯一选择。我们已经从美国股票中删除了超过5万亿美元，目的是降低利率。​​它将起作用吗？ （线程）pic.twitter.com/qlqyu65azt

But is it just economics?

但这只是经济学吗？

I have also seen a marked uptick in bot activity across X and Facebook. Every mundane post becomes a political minefield. “What are you cooking for dinner?” invites 400 comments about immigration, vaccines, Russia/Ukraine, Hunter Biden, Israel/Palestine, Elon Musk… That’s not organic.

我还看到了X和Facebook的机器人活动的明显增长。每个平凡的职位成为政治雷区。 “你在晚餐时做什么？”邀请400条有关移民，疫苗，俄罗斯/乌克兰，亨特·拜登，以色列/巴勒斯坦，埃隆·马斯克的评论……这不是有机的。

And what about the vandalism and protests at Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)? The sudden outpouring of rage toward a company that was, just yesterday, a darling of the progressive elite—now defaced and attacked by what looks like a well-funded, well-coordinated machine.

特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的故意破坏和抗议呢？昨天，这是一家进步精英的宠儿，愤怒突然涌向一家公司，现在被一台资金充足，协调良好的机器所污损和攻击。

The Elon Musk Tesla protests ARE PAIDWatch as these protesters pick through a pile of pre-made signs provided to them. This is all BEING FUNDED by Democrat donors and activist NGO groups. We demand investigations and accountability into the money trail pic.twitter.com/0gbH63GPEZ

埃隆·马斯克·特斯拉（Elon Musk Tesla）的抗议活动是付费观看的，因为这些抗议者通过提供的一堆预制标志来选择。这一切都是由民主党捐助者和激进组织组织资助的。我们要求调查和责任制货币trail.twitter.com/0gbh63gpez

And that’s actually even scarier to think about. If it’s not organic, who’s funding it, and to what end?

这实际上甚至更可怕。如果不是有机的，谁在为它提供资金，什么目的是什么？

Even closer to home, Trump’s blockchain policy strikes me as incoherent at best and dangerously corrupt at worst. I’ve tried to be fair to Trump over the years. I don’t worship him. I don’t hate him. But when a sitting president aligns himself with Arthur Hayes—convicted of financial crimes and co-founder of BitMEX—to issue a pardon, I wonder who is paying the bills. I can see why, even if largely guilty, someone like Ross Ulbricht didn’t deserve to die in prison because he was young and idealistic when Silk Road started, and there is an argument to be made that it all got out of hand in a way that wasn’t as much malicious as it was circumstantial.

特朗普的区块链政策更靠近家，使我充满了不一致的人，最坏的情况是危险的腐败。这些年来，我试图对特朗普保持公平。我不崇拜他。我不恨他。但是，当一位现任总统与亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）保持一致（由金融犯罪和Bitmex的联合创始人）签发时，我不知道是谁付款。我可以理解为什么，即使有罪，像罗斯·乌尔布里希特（Ross Ulbricht）这样的人也不应该在监狱里死，因为当丝绸之路开始时他年轻且理想主义，而且有一个论点是，这一切都以一种不那么恶意的方式失控了。

This is not the case with BitMEX. The exchange is a sophisticated business that was built and operated by sophisticated people with experience in the business of this sector with clear knowledge of KYC/AML laws that they were breaking on purpose. They knew the risks going in, and their punishments were largely slaps on the wrist that included some basic fines and probation.

Bitmex并非如此。该交易所是一家复杂的业务，由成熟的人建立和运营，在该行业的业务中经验丰富，对KYC/AML法律有明确的了解，他们故意破裂。他们知道冒险的风险，他们的惩罚在很大程度上是手腕上的一巴掌，其中包括一些基本的罚款和缓刑。

Why bother? Why waste political capital for brazen white-collar criminals? Well, the mainstream of the cryptosphere thinks they are heroes!

为什么要打扰？为什么要浪费大胆的白领罪犯的政治资本？好吧，加密层的主流认为他们是英雄！

Trump pardoned the BitMEX team – Arthur Hayes, Ben Delo, and Sam Reed. The visionaries at BitMEX invented the perpetual swap, pioneered 24/7 leverage, and reshaped global finance. This lawfare just got corrected! Bullish. pic.twitter.com / 96z8r8Z76

特朗普赦免了Bitmex团队 - 亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes），本·德洛（Ben Delo）和萨姆·里德（Sam Reed）。 Bitmex的有远见者发明了永久交换，开创性的24/7杠杆和重塑全球金融。该法律刚刚得到纠正！看涨。 pic.twitter.com / 96z8r8z76

What happened to principle? What happened to transparency? Why not also pardon Roger Ver? Or does he deserve to die in prison because he’s not a BTC insider?

原则发生了什么？透明发生了什么？为什么不赦免罗杰·韦尔（Roger Ver）？还是因为他不是BTC内部人士，他应该在监狱里死吗？

And before we forget about Ross (again,) if the President believes Ross deserves a pardon—and we know he does—then shouldn’t the conversation also include the restitution of Ross’s assets? Otherwise, it just looks like another cynical move: confiscate assets, give yourself credit for their increase in value, and call it “strategy” to get along with Miami Mike’s narrative about permanent bullishness.

在我们忘记罗斯（再次）之前，如果总统认为罗斯应该赦免，我们知道他确实如此，那么谈话还不应该包括归还罗斯的资产吗？否则，它看起来像是另一个愤世嫉俗的举动：没收资产，让自己赞扬其价值的增加，并称其为“策略”，以与迈阿密迈克关于永久看涨的叙述相处。

I would say I’m confused, except that would require me assuming good faith from anyone in the conversation.

我会说我很困惑，除了这需要我在谈话中任何人的真诚。

If Trump wants to advocate for a Bitcoin strategy or even a vague blockchain strategy, why not embrace people without serious

如果特朗普想提倡比特币策略甚至模糊的区块链策略，为什么不拥抱没有认真的人