MicroStrategy 的比特幣賭博：溢價擔憂和流動性風險

3月28日，道瓊工業指數收高，那斯達克指數收低。日經指數上週末下跌 604 日圓。在美國，由於擁有大量比特幣，MicroStrategy的股價自年初以來已上漲150%。然而，Kerrisdale Capital 的一份報告指出，MicroStrategy 的市值超過了其持有的比特幣價值，顯示估值過高。比特幣相對於MicroStrategy持有的比特幣價值的溢價也很高，達到1.92倍。 Kerrisdale Capital 認為 MicroStrategy 的股價被高估，並建議採用做多比特幣並做空 MicroStrategy 股票的配對交易策略。

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Holdings: A Closer Look at the Premium and Potential Risks

MicroStrategy 的比特幣持有量：仔細審視溢價和潛在風險

On March 28, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 47.2 points higher than the previous day, while the Nasdaq index closed 20 points lower. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Stock Average fell by 604 yen from the previous weekend to 39,765 yen. Experts attribute these fluctuations to factors such as profit-taking and pension fund rebalancing.

3月28日，道瓊工業平均指數較前一交易日收高47.2點，那斯達克指數收跌20點。同時，日經平均指數較上週末下跌604日圓至39,765日圓。專家將這些波動歸因於獲利了結和退休基金再平衡等因素。

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Investment and Valuation

MicroStrategy 的比特幣投資與估值

Among U.S. stocks with significant exposure to crypto assets, MicroStrategy has garnered attention for its substantial investment in Bitcoin and subsequent stock price appreciation. However, a report by investment management firm Kerrisdale Capital has raised concerns about the company's valuation and potential risks.

在加密資產敞口較大的美國股票中，MicroStrategy 因其對比特幣的大量投資以及隨後的股價上漲而受到關注。然而，投資管理公司 Kerrisdale Capital 的一份報告引發了對該公司估值和潛在風險的擔憂。

According to Kerrisdale, MicroStrategy's market capitalization of nearly $29 billion significantly exceeds the $15 billion market value of its Bitcoin holdings. This implies that the company's stock price may be overvalued. To capitalize on this perceived overvaluation, Kerrisdale has adopted a pair trading strategy, going long on Bitcoin and shorting MicroStrategy's stock.

Kerrisdale 表示，MicroStrategy 的市值接近 290 億美元，遠遠超過其持有的比特幣 150 億美元的市值。這意味著該公司的股價可能被高估。為了利用這種明顯的高估，Kerrisdale 採用了配對交易策略，做多比特幣並做空 MicroStrategy 的股票。

Data from mstr-tracker indicates that the MSTR/BTC ratio has reached a level higher than the all-time high recorded in June 2021, suggesting a premium for MicroStrategy's stock relative to its underlying Bitcoin holdings. This premium has been attributed to factors such as Bitcoin's historical price volatility and the perceived risk of selling Bitcoin during periods of market stress.

mstr-tracker 的數據表明，MSTR/BTC 比率已達到高於 2021 年 6 月記錄的歷史高點的水平，這表明 MicroStrategy 的股票相對於其基礎比特幣持有量存在溢價。這種溢價歸因於比特幣歷史價格波動以及在市場壓力期間出售比特幣的感知風險等因素。

Historical Performance and Premium Dynamics

歷史性能和卓越的動力

Kerrisdale notes that during Bitcoin's significant price surge from $15,000 to $45,000 between November 2020 and February 2021, MicroStrategy's stock price also experienced a substantial increase. At the time, the BTC NAV premium reached 3.9x. However, as Bitcoin's price continued to climb in the following months, MicroStrategy's stock price underperformed. The premium has since declined to 1.3 times the three-year average.

Kerrisdale 指出，在 2020 年 11 月至 2021 年 2 月期間，比特幣價格從 15,000 美元大幅飆升至 45,000 美元，MicroStrategy 的股價也經歷了大幅上漲。當時，BTC 資產淨值溢價達到 3.9 倍。然而，隨著比特幣價格在接下來的幾個月中持續攀升，MicroStrategy 的股價表現不佳。此後溢價已降至三年平均的 1.3 倍。

Leveraged Financing and Potential Liquidity Risks

槓桿融資和潛在的流動性風險

Kerrisdale also expresses concerns about MicroStrategy's reliance on debt financing to fund its Bitcoin purchases. The company has issued convertible bonds, resulting in a leveraged position that could pose liquidity risks if forced to repay the debt by selling Bitcoin during a market downturn.

Kerrisdale 也對 MicroStrategy 依賴債務融資為其購買比特幣提供資金表示擔憂。該公司發行了可轉換債券，導致槓桿頭寸，如果在市場低迷期間被迫透過出售比特幣來償還債務，可能會帶來流動性風險。

Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics

加密貨幣市場動態

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has recently risen to $70,909, indicating a bullish sentiment. Despite facing resistance around $73,800, strong buying interest has helped maintain its upward momentum. Analysts believe that further positive news or a favorable outcome in the upcoming U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) report could push Bitcoin towards $74,000.

在加密貨幣市場中，比特幣（BTC）最近已升至 70,909 美元，顯示看漲情緒。儘管面臨 73,800 美元附近的阻力，但強勁的買盤興趣幫助維持了上漲勢頭。分析師認為，進一步的利好消息或即將發布的美國 PCE（個人消費支出）報告的有利結果可能會將比特幣推向 74,000 美元。

Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE), have also experienced gains, reflecting a broader positive market sentiment.

其他主要加密貨幣，如以太幣 (ETH)、Solana (SOL) 和狗狗幣 (DOGE) 也出現上漲，反映出更廣泛的正面市場情緒。

Bitcoin ETF Flows and Institutional Interest

比特幣 ETF 流量和機構興趣

Data from BitMEX Research shows a slowdown in Bitcoin ETF flows at the end of March, indicating a potential reduction in selling pressure. This may be due to tax-related selling by U.S. investors and rebalancing by financial institutions.

BitMEX Research 的數據顯示，3 月底比特幣 ETF 流量放緩，顯示拋售壓力可能減輕。這可能是由於美國投資者與稅收相關的拋售以及金融機構的再平衡所致。

Despite this temporary decline in liquidity, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong. With the review period for large broker-dealers to allow wealth advisors to allocate client assets to Bitcoin ETFs expected to end soon, major financial giants such as Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs are poised to enter the market.

儘管流動性暫時下降，機構對比特幣的興趣仍然強勁。隨著大型券商允許財富顧問將客戶資產分配給比特幣 ETF 的審查期預計即將結束，摩根士丹利、美國銀行和高盛等主要金融巨頭準備進入該市場。

This influx of institutional capital could significantly impact Bitcoin's price and volatility, providing a positive outlook for the second quarter of 2024.

機構資本的湧入可能會對比特幣的價格和波動性產生重大影響，為 2024 年第二季帶來積極的前景。

CoinPost App and Market Reporting

CoinPost 應用程式和行銷報告

In addition to providing in-depth market analysis, CoinPost App offers a convenient platform for investors to access key information and market data. With a focus on crypto assets, the app provides up-to-date news, exchange information, and price movements of related stocks. For further insights, CoinPost offers a comprehensive library of past market reports.

除了提供深入的市場分析外，CoinPost App 還為投資者提供了一個獲取關鍵資訊和市場數據的便利平台。該應用程式專注於加密資產，提供最新新聞、交易資訊和相關股票的價格走勢。為了獲得更多見解，CoinPost 提供了過去市場報告的綜合庫。

CoinPost is actively expanding its operations, including the recruitment of skilled writers and journalists in the crypto and Web3 space. With its commitment to delivering high-quality content and fostering a vibrant community, CoinPost aims to continue playing a vital role in the crypto industry.

CoinPost 正在積極擴展其業務，包括招募加密貨幣和 Web3 領域的熟練作家和記者。 CoinPost 致力於提供高品質的內容並培育充滿活力的社區，旨在繼續在加密貨幣行業中發揮重要作用。