MicroStrategy 的比特币赌博：溢价担忧和流动性风险

3月28日，道琼斯工业平均指数收高，纳斯达克指数收低。日经指数上周末下跌 604 日元。在美国，由于拥有大量比特币，MicroStrategy的股价自年初以来已上涨150%。然而，Kerrisdale Capital 的一份报告指出，MicroStrategy 的市值超过了其持有的比特币价值，表明估值过高。比特币相对于MicroStrategy持有的比特币价值的溢价也很高，达到1.92倍。 Kerrisdale Capital 认为 MicroStrategy 的股价被高估，并建议采用做多比特币并做空 MicroStrategy 股票的配对交易策略。

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Holdings: A Closer Look at the Premium and Potential Risks

MicroStrategy 的比特币持有量：仔细审视溢价和潜在风险

On March 28, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 47.2 points higher than the previous day, while the Nasdaq index closed 20 points lower. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Stock Average fell by 604 yen from the previous weekend to 39,765 yen. Experts attribute these fluctuations to factors such as profit-taking and pension fund rebalancing.

3月28日，道琼斯工业平均指数较前一交易日收高47.2点，纳斯达克指数收跌20点。与此同时，日经平均指数较上周末下跌604日元至39,765日元。专家将这些波动归因于获利了结和养老基金再平衡等因素。

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Investment and Valuation

MicroStrategy 的比特币投资和估值

Among U.S. stocks with significant exposure to crypto assets, MicroStrategy has garnered attention for its substantial investment in Bitcoin and subsequent stock price appreciation. However, a report by investment management firm Kerrisdale Capital has raised concerns about the company's valuation and potential risks.

在加密资产敞口较大的美国股票中，MicroStrategy 因其对比特币的大量投资以及随后的股价上涨而受到关注。然而，投资管理公司 Kerrisdale Capital 的一份报告引发了对该公司估值和潜在风险的担忧。

According to Kerrisdale, MicroStrategy's market capitalization of nearly $29 billion significantly exceeds the $15 billion market value of its Bitcoin holdings. This implies that the company's stock price may be overvalued. To capitalize on this perceived overvaluation, Kerrisdale has adopted a pair trading strategy, going long on Bitcoin and shorting MicroStrategy's stock.

Kerrisdale 表示，MicroStrategy 的市值接近 290 亿美元，远远超过其持有的比特币 150 亿美元的市值。这意味着该公司的股价可能被高估。为了利用这种明显的高估，Kerrisdale 采用了配对交易策略，做多比特币并做空 MicroStrategy 的股票。

Data from mstr-tracker indicates that the MSTR/BTC ratio has reached a level higher than the all-time high recorded in June 2021, suggesting a premium for MicroStrategy's stock relative to its underlying Bitcoin holdings. This premium has been attributed to factors such as Bitcoin's historical price volatility and the perceived risk of selling Bitcoin during periods of market stress.

mstr-tracker 的数据表明，MSTR/BTC 比率已达到高于 2021 年 6 月记录的历史高点的水平，这表明 MicroStrategy 的股票相对于其基础比特币持有量存在溢价。这种溢价归因于比特币历史价格波动以及在市场压力期间出售比特币的感知风险等因素。

Historical Performance and Premium Dynamics

历史性能和卓越的动力

Kerrisdale notes that during Bitcoin's significant price surge from $15,000 to $45,000 between November 2020 and February 2021, MicroStrategy's stock price also experienced a substantial increase. At the time, the BTC NAV premium reached 3.9x. However, as Bitcoin's price continued to climb in the following months, MicroStrategy's stock price underperformed. The premium has since declined to 1.3 times the three-year average.

Kerrisdale 指出，在 2020 年 11 月至 2021 年 2 月期间，比特币价格从 15,000 美元大幅飙升至 45,000 美元，MicroStrategy 的股价也经历了大幅上涨。当时，BTC 资产净值溢价达到 3.9 倍。然而，随着比特币价格在接下来的几个月中持续攀升，MicroStrategy 的股价表现不佳。此后溢价已降至三年平均水平的 1.3 倍。

Leveraged Financing and Potential Liquidity Risks

杠杆融资和潜在的流动性风险

Kerrisdale also expresses concerns about MicroStrategy's reliance on debt financing to fund its Bitcoin purchases. The company has issued convertible bonds, resulting in a leveraged position that could pose liquidity risks if forced to repay the debt by selling Bitcoin during a market downturn.

Kerrisdale 还对 MicroStrategy 依赖债务融资为其购买比特币提供资金表示担忧。该公司发行了可转换债券，导致杠杆头寸，如果在市场低迷期间被迫通过出售比特币来偿还债务，可能会带来流动性风险。

Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics

加密货币市场动态

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has recently risen to $70,909, indicating a bullish sentiment. Despite facing resistance around $73,800, strong buying interest has helped maintain its upward momentum. Analysts believe that further positive news or a favorable outcome in the upcoming U.S. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) report could push Bitcoin towards $74,000.

在加密货币市场中，比特币（BTC）最近已升至 70,909 美元，表明看涨情绪。尽管面临 73,800 美元附近的阻力，但强劲的买盘兴趣帮助维持了上涨势头。分析师认为，进一步的利好消息或即将发布的美国 PCE（个人消费支出）报告的有利结果可能会将比特币推向 74,000 美元。

Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Dogecoin (DOGE), have also experienced gains, reflecting a broader positive market sentiment.

其他主要加密货币，如以太坊 (ETH)、Solana (SOL) 和狗狗币 (DOGE) 也出现上涨，反映出更广泛的积极市场情绪。

Bitcoin ETF Flows and Institutional Interest

比特币 ETF 流量和机构兴趣

Data from BitMEX Research shows a slowdown in Bitcoin ETF flows at the end of March, indicating a potential reduction in selling pressure. This may be due to tax-related selling by U.S. investors and rebalancing by financial institutions.

BitMEX Research 的数据显示，3 月底比特币 ETF 流量放缓，表明抛售压力可能减轻。这可能是由于美国投资者与税收相关的抛售以及金融机构的再平衡所致。

Despite this temporary decline in liquidity, institutional interest in Bitcoin remains strong. With the review period for large broker-dealers to allow wealth advisors to allocate client assets to Bitcoin ETFs expected to end soon, major financial giants such as Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs are poised to enter the market.

尽管流动性暂时下降，机构对比特币的兴趣仍然强劲。随着大型券商允许财富顾问将客户资产分配给比特币 ETF 的审查期预计即将结束，摩根士丹利、美国银行和高盛等主要金融巨头准备进入该市场。

This influx of institutional capital could significantly impact Bitcoin's price and volatility, providing a positive outlook for the second quarter of 2024.

机构资本的涌入可能会对比特币的价格和波动性产生重大影响，从而为 2024 年第二季度带来积极的前景。

CoinPost App and Market Reporting

CoinPost 应用程序和市场报告

In addition to providing in-depth market analysis, CoinPost App offers a convenient platform for investors to access key information and market data. With a focus on crypto assets, the app provides up-to-date news, exchange information, and price movements of related stocks. For further insights, CoinPost offers a comprehensive library of past market reports.

除了提供深入的市场分析外，CoinPost App 还为投资者提供了获取关键信息和市场数据的便捷平台。该应用程序专注于加密资产，提供最新新闻、交易信息和相关股票的价格走势。为了获得更多见解，CoinPost 提供了过去市场报告的综合库。

CoinPost is actively expanding its operations, including the recruitment of skilled writers and journalists in the crypto and Web3 space. With its commitment to delivering high-quality content and fostering a vibrant community, CoinPost aims to continue playing a vital role in the crypto industry.

CoinPost 正在积极扩展其业务，包括招募加密货币和 Web3 领域的熟练作家和记者。 CoinPost 致力于提供高质量的内容并培育充满活力的社区，旨在继续在加密货币行业中发挥重要作用。