2024 年的市場正面臨身分危機

一方面是井然有序、紀律嚴明，另一方面是混亂且腎上腺素飆升。

2024 financial markets: Structured vs. Chaotic

2024 年金融市場：結構化與混亂

The financial markets of 2024 are presenting a unique dichotomy, characterized by both structured and disciplined behavior on one hand and chaotic and adrenaline-fueled activity on the other.

2024 年的金融市場呈現出一種獨特的二分法，一方面是結構化和有紀律的行為，另一方面是混亂和刺激腎上腺素的活動。

While benchmark stock indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow are exhibiting a steady and controlled ascent, showcasing their inherent strength, Bitcoin is embarking on a remarkable surge, propelled by a disregard for caution and a relentless drive toward the $100,000 mark.

雖然標準普爾500 指數和道瓊斯指數等基準股指表現出穩定且受控的上漲，展示了其固有的實力，但在不顧謹慎和不斷沖向10 萬美元大關的推動下，比特幣正在開始顯著飆升。

The S&P 500 has been relentlessly pursuing its objectives. Following a surge of 25% for the year in the wake of the presidential election buzz, the index has experienced a slight cooling-off period, testing its October highs. Last week, it rebounded with a 1.7% gain.

標準普爾 500 指數一直不懈地追求其目標。繼總統選舉熱潮之後，該指數今年飆升 25%，之後經歷了一段短暫的冷靜期，測試了 10 月的高點。上週反彈，漲幅為1.7%。

Most stocks are contributing to the overall market performance, with financials and cyclical sectors leading the charge. This optimism is fueled by anticipation of the Trump administration's upcoming policies, which are expected to expand the economy and boost earnings growth.

大多數股票都對整體市場表現做出了貢獻，其中金融股和週期性板塊處於領先地位。對川普政府即將推出的政策的預期加劇了這種樂觀情緒，這些政策預計將擴大經濟並促進獲利成長。

However, Bitcoin appears to be operating on an entirely different frequency. The apex cryptocurrency is up 40% this month alone and shows no signs of decelerating. Traders are placing substantial bets, fueled by aggressive headlines and the belief that Bitcoin is poised to enter the mainstream with new government support.

然而，比特幣似乎以完全不同的頻率運行。光是本月，這種頂級加密貨幣就上漲了 40%，而且沒有任何放緩的跡象。在激進的頭條新聞和相信比特幣將在新的政府支持下進入主流的信念的推動下，交易員們下了大筆賭注。

This enthusiasm is reminiscent of Thanksgiving dinners that devolve into spirited discussions about money. Yet, the risks cannot be overlooked — Bitcoin is overbought, its chart is overheating, and the race to $100,000 feels more like a sprint than a marathon. But then again, that's just how we roll, isn't it?

這種熱情讓人想起感恩節晚餐，人們熱烈討論金錢。然而，風險也不容忽視——比特幣已經超買，圖表過熱，衝向 10 萬美元的競賽感覺更像是短跑而不是馬拉松。但話又說回來，這就是我們的行事方式，不是嗎？

Bitcoin takes the lead

比特幣佔據領先地位

Bitcoin's exuberance is spilling over into crypto-linked stocks, penny stocks, leveraged ETFs, and even speculative tech plays that were left for dead after the 2021 bust.

比特幣的繁榮正在蔓延到與加密貨幣相關的股票、細價股、槓桿 ETF，甚至是 2021 年泡沫破滅後被遺棄的投機性科技股。

Take MicroStrategy, for instance. The company has transformed itself into a Bitcoin holding tank, using billions of dollars raised through stock sales and debt to acquire more Bitcoin. It's a self-reinforcing cycle: more Bitcoin generates greater enthusiasm, which in turn attracts retail traders.

以 MicroStrategy 為例。該公司已將自己轉變為比特幣持有罐，利用透過股票銷售和債務籌集的數十億美元來收購更多比特幣。這是一個自我強化的循環：更多的比特幣會產生更大的熱情，進而吸引散戶交易者。

Last week, retail buying tripled just as MicroStrategy's stock hit a $100 billion market cap — three times the value of its Bitcoin stash.

上週，當 MicroStrategy 的股票市值達到 1,000 億美元（是其比特幣儲備價值的三倍）時，散戶購買量增加了兩倍。

If MicroStrategy's wild ride isn't enough, there are leveraged ETFs that take things to the next level. MSTU, an ETF tied solely to MicroStrategy shares, has seen its trading volume double this month. But things are getting dicey.

如果 MicroStrategy 的瘋狂之旅還不夠，還有槓桿 ETF 可以將事情提升到一個新的水平。 MSTU 是一款僅與 MicroStrategy 股票掛鉤的 ETF，本月交易量翻了一番。但事情變得越來越危險。

Fund sponsors are reportedly having difficulty replicating the promised returns due to brokers capping their exposure. It's a high-stakes game, and the cracks are starting to show.

據報道，由於經紀人限制了基金發起人的風險敞口，基金發起人很難複製承諾的回報。這是一場高風險的遊戲，而且裂縫已經開始顯現。

Across the market, leveraged-long ETFs are seeing near-record inflows compared to short ETFs. According to SentimenTrader, the last time this happened was in late 2021—right before a major market peak.

在整個市場中，與空頭 ETF 相比，槓桿多頭 ETF 的資金流入接近創紀錄水準。據 SentimenTrader 稱，上一次發生這種情況是在 2021 年底——就在主要市場高峰之前。

Net inflows to stock ETFs are also hitting multi-year highs, though they're not as extreme relative to market value as they were back then. Still, it's clear that money is pouring into high-risk plays, and the appetite for speculation is alive and well.

股票 ETF 的淨流入也​​創下了多年來的新高，儘管相對於市值而言並不像當時那麼極端。儘管如此，很明顯資金正湧入高創投領域，投機興趣依然強勁。

S&P 500: Slow and steady

標普 500 指數：緩慢而穩定

In the midst of this market chaos, the S&P 500 is maintaining its composure. Earnings are climbing, GDP growth remains above 2%, and the Federal Reserve is gradually reducing interest rates. Credit spreads are narrow, and seasonal trends are providing an additional boost.

在市場混亂的情況下，標準普爾 500 指數卻保持著冷靜。獲利不斷攀升，GDP 成長維持在 2% 以上，聯準會逐步降低利率。信用利差收窄，季節性趨勢提供了額外的推動力。

Wall Street strategists are optimistic, revising their 2025 targets upward. Some are projecting an 11% gain for the S&P 500, driving it to 6,600.

華爾街策略師持樂觀態度，上調了 2025 年的目標。有些人預計標準普爾 500 指數將上漲 11%，達到 6,600 點。

It's not an outlandish prediction, but it's important to note that these targets are being set from relatively low levels. Investor sentiment is becoming frothy but hasn't yet reached dangerous extremes. That doesn't mean everything's fine, though.

這並不是一個奇怪的預測，但值得注意的是，這些目標是從相對較低的水平設定的。投資者情緒正在變得泡沫化，但尚未達到危險的極端。但這並不意味著一切都很好。

The speculative frenzy surrounding Bitcoin and crypto-linked assets sharply contrasts with the measured advance of the S&P 500. It serves as a reminder that the market is split, with one foot in reality and the other in fantasy.

圍繞比特幣和加密貨幣相關資產的投機狂潮與標準普爾 500 指數的可衡量上漲形成鮮明對比。

But here's the thing: the line between these two worlds isn't as clear as it seems. Bitcoin's rise is diverting energy from other high-flyers like Nvidia, which has been trading flat despite strong earnings and guidance. Nvidia has added $2.3 trillion in market value this year alone, but the Bitcoin frenzy might be stealing its thunder.

但事情是這樣的：這兩個世界之間的界線並不像看起來那麼清晰。比特幣的上漲正在轉移英偉達等其他雄心勃勃的公司的精力，儘管該公司的獲利和指引強勁，但其股價一直持平。光是今年，Nvidia 的市值就增加了 2.3 兆美元，但比特幣的狂熱可能搶走了它的風頭。