2024 年的市场正面临身份危机

一方面是井然有序、纪律严明，另一方面是混乱且肾上腺素飙升。

2024 financial markets: Structured vs. Chaotic

2024 年金融市场：结构化与混乱

The financial markets of 2024 are presenting a unique dichotomy, characterized by both structured and disciplined behavior on one hand and chaotic and adrenaline-fueled activity on the other.

2024 年的金融市场呈现出一种独特的二分法，一方面是结构化和有纪律的行为，另一方面是混乱和刺激肾上腺素的活动。

While benchmark stock indexes like the S&P 500 and the Dow are exhibiting a steady and controlled ascent, showcasing their inherent strength, Bitcoin is embarking on a remarkable surge, propelled by a disregard for caution and a relentless drive toward the $100,000 mark.

虽然标准普尔 500 指数和道琼斯指数等基准股指表现出稳定且受控的上涨，展示了其固有的实力，但在不顾谨慎和不断冲向 10 万美元大关的推动下，比特币正在开始显着飙升。

The S&P 500 has been relentlessly pursuing its objectives. Following a surge of 25% for the year in the wake of the presidential election buzz, the index has experienced a slight cooling-off period, testing its October highs. Last week, it rebounded with a 1.7% gain.

标准普尔 500 指数一直在不懈地追求其目标。继总统选举热潮之后，该指数今年飙升 25%，之后经历了一段短暂的冷静期，测试了 10 月份的高点。上周反弹，涨幅为1.7%。

Most stocks are contributing to the overall market performance, with financials and cyclical sectors leading the charge. This optimism is fueled by anticipation of the Trump administration's upcoming policies, which are expected to expand the economy and boost earnings growth.

大多数股票都对整体市场表现做出了贡献，其中金融股和周期性板块处于领先地位。对特朗普政府即将推出的政策的预期加剧了这种乐观情绪，这些政策预计将扩大经济并促进盈利增长。

However, Bitcoin appears to be operating on an entirely different frequency. The apex cryptocurrency is up 40% this month alone and shows no signs of decelerating. Traders are placing substantial bets, fueled by aggressive headlines and the belief that Bitcoin is poised to enter the mainstream with new government support.

然而，比特币似乎以完全不同的频率运行。仅本月，这种顶级加密货币就上涨了 40%，而且没有任何放缓的迹象。在激进的头条新闻和相信比特币将在新的政府支持下进入主流的信念的推动下，交易员们下了大笔赌注。

This enthusiasm is reminiscent of Thanksgiving dinners that devolve into spirited discussions about money. Yet, the risks cannot be overlooked — Bitcoin is overbought, its chart is overheating, and the race to $100,000 feels more like a sprint than a marathon. But then again, that's just how we roll, isn't it?

这种热情让人想起感恩节晚餐，人们热烈讨论金钱。然而，风险也不容忽视——比特币已经超买，图表过热，冲向 10 万美元的竞赛感觉更像是短跑而不是马拉松。但话又说回来，这就是我们的行事方式，不是吗？

Bitcoin takes the lead

比特币占据领先地位

Bitcoin's exuberance is spilling over into crypto-linked stocks, penny stocks, leveraged ETFs, and even speculative tech plays that were left for dead after the 2021 bust.

比特币的繁荣正在蔓延到与加密货币相关的股票、细价股、杠杆 ETF，甚至是 2021 年泡沫破灭后被遗弃的投机性科技股。

Take MicroStrategy, for instance. The company has transformed itself into a Bitcoin holding tank, using billions of dollars raised through stock sales and debt to acquire more Bitcoin. It's a self-reinforcing cycle: more Bitcoin generates greater enthusiasm, which in turn attracts retail traders.

以 MicroStrategy 为例。该公司已将自己转变为比特币持有罐，利用通过股票销售和债务筹集的数十亿美元来收购更多比特币。这是一个自我强化的循环：更多的比特币会产生更大的热情，进而吸引散户交易者。

Last week, retail buying tripled just as MicroStrategy's stock hit a $100 billion market cap — three times the value of its Bitcoin stash.

上周，当 MicroStrategy 的股票市值达到 1000 亿美元（是其比特币储备价值的三倍）时，散户购买量增加了两倍。

If MicroStrategy's wild ride isn't enough, there are leveraged ETFs that take things to the next level. MSTU, an ETF tied solely to MicroStrategy shares, has seen its trading volume double this month. But things are getting dicey.

如果 MicroStrategy 的疯狂之旅还不够，还有杠杆 ETF 可以将事情提升到一个新的水平。 MSTU 是一款仅与 MicroStrategy 股票挂钩的 ETF，本月交易量翻了一番。但事情变得越来越危险。

Fund sponsors are reportedly having difficulty replicating the promised returns due to brokers capping their exposure. It's a high-stakes game, and the cracks are starting to show.

据报道，由于经纪人限制了基金发起人的风险敞口，基金发起人很难复制承诺的回报。这是一场高风险的游戏，而且裂缝已经开始显现。

Across the market, leveraged-long ETFs are seeing near-record inflows compared to short ETFs. According to SentimenTrader, the last time this happened was in late 2021—right before a major market peak.

在整个市场中，与空头 ETF 相比，杠杆多头 ETF 的资金流入接近创纪录水平。据 SentimenTrader 称，上一次发生这种情况是在 2021 年底——就在主要市场高峰之前。

Net inflows to stock ETFs are also hitting multi-year highs, though they're not as extreme relative to market value as they were back then. Still, it's clear that money is pouring into high-risk plays, and the appetite for speculation is alive and well.

股票 ETF 的净流入也创下了多年来的新高，尽管相对于市值而言并不像当时那么极端。尽管如此，很明显资金正在涌入高风险投资领域，而且投机兴趣依然旺盛。

S&P 500: Slow and steady

标准普尔 500 指数：缓慢而稳定

In the midst of this market chaos, the S&P 500 is maintaining its composure. Earnings are climbing, GDP growth remains above 2%, and the Federal Reserve is gradually reducing interest rates. Credit spreads are narrow, and seasonal trends are providing an additional boost.

在市场混乱的情况下，标准普尔 500 指数却保持着冷静。盈利不断攀升，GDP 增长保持在 2% 以上，美联储逐步降低利率。信用利差收窄，季节性趋势提供了额外的推动力。

Wall Street strategists are optimistic, revising their 2025 targets upward. Some are projecting an 11% gain for the S&P 500, driving it to 6,600.

华尔街策略师持乐观态度，上调了 2025 年的目标。一些人预计标准普尔 500 指数将上涨 11%，达到 6,600 点。

It's not an outlandish prediction, but it's important to note that these targets are being set from relatively low levels. Investor sentiment is becoming frothy but hasn't yet reached dangerous extremes. That doesn't mean everything's fine, though.

这并不是一个奇怪的预测，但值得注意的是，这些目标是从相对较低的水平设定的。投资者情绪正在变得泡沫化，但尚未达到危险的极端。但这并不意味着一切都很好。

The speculative frenzy surrounding Bitcoin and crypto-linked assets sharply contrasts with the measured advance of the S&P 500. It serves as a reminder that the market is split, with one foot in reality and the other in fantasy.

围绕比特币和加密货币相关资产的投机狂潮与标准普尔 500 指数的可衡量上涨形成鲜明对比。这提醒人们，市场是分裂的，一只脚在现实中，另一只脚在幻想中。

But here's the thing: the line between these two worlds isn't as clear as it seems. Bitcoin's rise is diverting energy from other high-flyers like Nvidia, which has been trading flat despite strong earnings and guidance. Nvidia has added $2.3 trillion in market value this year alone, but the Bitcoin frenzy might be stealing its thunder.

但事情是这样的：这两个世界之间的界限并不像看起来那么清晰。比特币的上涨正在转移英伟达等其他雄心勃勃的公司的精力，尽管该公司的盈利和指引强劲，但其股价一直持平。仅今年一年，Nvidia 的市值就增加了 2.3 万亿美元，但比特币的狂热可能抢走了它的风头。