解放日將是美國的現實

4月2日將是美國解放日。無論是朋友還是敵人，世界各地都利用了我們。

April 2 will be Liberation Day for America. Countries around the world, whether friends or foes, have taken advantage of us," Trump stated last Friday in the Oval Office.

4月2日將是美國解放日。特朗普上週五在橢圓形辦公室說。

Market sentiment has clearly stabilized over the past week, with risk assets showing signs of recovery after several weeks of intense selling pressure, and the Trump administration's recent rhetoric has also been relatively mild. However, Trump indicated in his remarks last Friday in the Oval Office that the U.S. is preparing to announce "Tariff Liberation Day" next Wednesday (April 2), which will impose retaliatory tariffs on countries and allies that have taken trade actions against the U.S.

在過去的一周中，市場情緒顯然穩定了，風險資產在銷售壓力持續數週後顯示出恢復的跡象，而特朗普政府最近的言論也相對溫和。但是，特朗普在上週五在橢圓形辦公室的講話中指出，美國正準備在下週三（4月2日）宣布“關稅解放日”，該宣布將向對美國採取貿易訴訟的國家和盟友徵收報復性關稅

According to administration officials, the upcoming tariff measures are expected to be more targeted and take effect immediately, and only countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S. and have not imposed tariffs on U.S. goods will be exempt. Additionally, the Trump team seems to have softened its narrative recently, acknowledging that the list of target countries will not be comprehensive, and that certain existing tariffs (such as those on steel) may not necessarily be implemented cumulatively. Political focus this week will be on the preliminary details of the "America First" trade review, paving the way for the April announcement, as well as U.S.-Russia talks (Monday) and geopolitical developments involving Turkey/Israel.

據政府官員稱，即將採取的關稅措施有望更具針對性並立即生效，並且只有與美國有貿易盈餘並且沒有對美國商品徵收關稅的國家都將受到豁免。此外，特朗普團隊最近似乎已經軟化了其敘述，承認目標國家的名單將不全面，並且某些現有的關稅（例如鋼鐵上的關稅）不一定會累計實施。本週的政治重點將介紹“美國第一”貿易評論的初步細節，為四月宣布鋪平道路，以及涉及土耳其/以色列的地緣政治發展的美國俄羅斯談判和地緣政治發展。

"We will take action against those 'dirty 15%' countries, even though they only make up a small portion of the total, they account for a large part of our trade volume," Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg.

財政部長貝森特在接受彭博社採訪時說：“我們將對那些骯髒的15％'國家採取行動，儘管它們僅佔總數的一小部分，但它們佔了我們貿易量的很大一部分。”

Regardless of the final outcome of trade negotiations, market sentiment has already been damaged, with tariff-related topics dominating corporate earnings calls this year. Stocks highly correlated with trade have dropped about 15% since their January peak, while momentum stocks have experienced the most severe pullback in nearly 40 years, erasing two years of gains in just three weeks.

不管貿易談判的最終結果如何，市場情緒已經受到損害，與關稅有關的主題在今年占主導地位。自1月份高峰以來，與貿易高度相關的股票已下降了約15％，而動量股票在近40年內經歷了最嚴重的回調，在短短三週內就消除了兩年的收益。

In response to this situation, professional fund managers are exiting U.S. stock positions at an unprecedented pace, while Europe, the UK, and China have become the biggest beneficiaries due to their fiscal policy outlook.

為了應對這種情況，專業基金經理正在以前所未有的速度退出美國的股票職位，而歐洲，英國和中國由於其財政政策前景而成為最大的受益人。

Similarly, in terms of positioning, fund managers are concentrating on "low volatility" strategies at an unprecedented speed, with the performance of this factor rising to above the 92nd percentile historically, indicating that funds have shifted to extremely defensive positions.

同樣，就定位而言，基金經理以前所未有的速度專注於“低波動性”策略，而這一因素的表現卻高於歷史上的第92個百分位數，這表明資金已轉移到了極為防禦的位置。

One positive factor is that retail investors are still holding onto their stock positions, even adding to them during recent declines, with bullish options trading volume and margin account balances remaining at high levels. Over the past few years, retail investors have often outperformed professional funds; will this strength continue?

一個積極的因素是，零售投資者仍在堅持自己的股票頭寸，甚至在最近的下降期間增加了他們的股票職位，看漲期權交易量和保證金帳戶餘額仍保持高水平。在過去的幾年中，零售投資者經常表現優於專業資金。這種力量會繼續嗎？

Overall market sentiment remains low and in an extremely oversold state, laying the groundwork for a potential rebound in risk assets in the short term. Google searches for "recession" are also nearing multi-year highs (similar to during the pandemic or financial crisis), further supporting the possibility of a relief rebound in the short term.

總體市場情緒仍然很低，在一個極其超額售的州處，為短期內的風險資產帶來了基礎。 Google搜索“衰退”也接近多年高點（類似於大流行或金融危機），進一步支持了短期內救援反彈的可能性。

Most importantly, the hard economic data indicators in the U.S. remain robust, contrasting sharply with the market's soft sentiment indicators, suggesting that the market's reaction to the current weakness may be overstretched. Over the past few years, macro observers' assessments have often been more pessimistic than the actual economic situation, and we believe that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are much stronger than the market fears.

最重要的是，美國的艱難經濟數據指標仍然強大，與市場的軟性情緒指標形成鮮明對比，這表明市場對當前弱點的反應可能會過度拉伸。在過去的幾年中，宏觀觀察者的評估通常比實際的經濟狀況更為悲觀，我們認為，美國經濟的基本面比市場的恐懼要強得多。

In the cryptocurrency space, the market has also been relatively calm over the past week, with prices mostly fluctuating within a range, rebounding alongside U.S. stocks from recent lows. A recent survey by Bank of America on crowded trades found that after recent capital outflows from the U.S. stock market, cryptocurrency bulls have also seen a similar decline. ETF inflows have been positive for six consecutive trading days, although the volume remains sluggish.

在加密貨幣領域中，過去一周的市場也相對平靜，價格大多在範圍內波動，與最近的低點相連。美國銀行最近對擁擠的行業進行的一項調查發現，在美國股市最近流出的資本流出後，加密貨幣公牛也有類似的下降。 ETF流入連續六個交易日一直是陽性的，儘管數量仍然遲鈍。

From a technical perspective, prices remain in a downtrend but are currently stabilizing near key support levels, with ETH temporarily holding above the 2022 range highs, and the next important support level around 1500.

從技術的角度來看，價格仍然處於下降趨勢，但目前正在穩定在關鍵支持水平附近，ETH暫時保持高於2022範圍的高點，而下一個重要的支持水平左右約為1500。

As an additional observation, Bloomberg has uncovered an interesting pattern: the price of DOGE has shown an astonishingly synchronized movement with the BTC/gold ratio over the past two years. We make no comments on its trading significance or logical explanations; this industry's most representative meme coin is left for readers to appreciate the coincidence or insights.

作為另一個觀察結果，彭博社發現了一種有趣的模式：在過去兩年中，Doge的價格與BTC/Gold比率顯示出驚人的同步運動。我們對其交易意義或邏輯解釋沒有發表評論；該行業最具代表性的模因硬幣留給讀者欣賞巧合或見解。

Finally, despite the recent price pullback, we still believe that 2024 will be a key breakthrough year for the virtual asset industry, primarily benefiting from a more relaxed regulatory environment, optimistic legislative expectations, and the continued expansion of mainstream adoption. The most representative cases are the recent major mergers and acquisitions involving U.S. cryptocurrency giants: Kraken announced its acquisition of NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion, officially entering the traditional futures market; while Coinbase is reportedly in talks to acquire Deribit, the world's largest cryptocurrency options exchange.

最後，儘管最近的價格下降，我們仍然認為，對於虛擬資產行業來說，2024年將是一個關鍵的突破，主要受益於更輕鬆的監管環境，樂觀的立法期望以及主流採用的持續擴大。最具代表性的案件是最近涉及美國加密貨幣巨頭的主要合併和收購：Kraken宣布以15億美元的價格收購Ninjatrader，正式進入傳統的期貨市場；據報導，Coinbase正在談論世界上最大的加密貨幣期權交易所的Deribit。