解放日将是美国的现实

4月2日将是美国解放日。无论是朋友还是敌人，世界各地都利用了我们。

April 2 will be Liberation Day for America. Countries around the world, whether friends or foes, have taken advantage of us," Trump stated last Friday in the Oval Office.

4月2日将是美国解放日。特朗普上周五在椭圆形办公室说。

Market sentiment has clearly stabilized over the past week, with risk assets showing signs of recovery after several weeks of intense selling pressure, and the Trump administration's recent rhetoric has also been relatively mild. However, Trump indicated in his remarks last Friday in the Oval Office that the U.S. is preparing to announce "Tariff Liberation Day" next Wednesday (April 2), which will impose retaliatory tariffs on countries and allies that have taken trade actions against the U.S.

在过去的一周中，市场情绪显然稳定了，风险资产在销售压力持续数周后显示出恢复的迹象，而特朗普政府最近的言论也相对温和。但是，特朗普在上周五在椭圆形办公室的讲话中指出，美国正准备在下周三（4月2日）宣布“关税解放日”，该宣布将向对美国采取贸易诉讼的国家和盟友征收报复性关税

According to administration officials, the upcoming tariff measures are expected to be more targeted and take effect immediately, and only countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S. and have not imposed tariffs on U.S. goods will be exempt. Additionally, the Trump team seems to have softened its narrative recently, acknowledging that the list of target countries will not be comprehensive, and that certain existing tariffs (such as those on steel) may not necessarily be implemented cumulatively. Political focus this week will be on the preliminary details of the "America First" trade review, paving the way for the April announcement, as well as U.S.-Russia talks (Monday) and geopolitical developments involving Turkey/Israel.

据政府官员称，即将采取的关税措施有望更具针对性并立即生效，并且只有与美国有贸易盈余并且没有对美国商品征收关税的国家都将受到豁免。此外，特朗普团队最近似乎已经软化了其叙述，承认目标国家的名单将不全面，并且某些现有的关税（例如钢铁上的关税）不一定会累计实施。本周的政治重点将介绍“美国第一”贸易评论的初步细节，为四月宣布铺平道路，以及涉及土耳其/以色列的地缘政治发展的美国俄罗斯谈判和地缘政治发展。

"We will take action against those 'dirty 15%' countries, even though they only make up a small portion of the total, they account for a large part of our trade volume," Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg.

财政部长贝森特在接受彭博社采访时说：“我们将对那些'肮脏的15％'国家采取行动，即使它们仅占总数的一小部分，但它们占了我们贸易量的很大一部分。”

Regardless of the final outcome of trade negotiations, market sentiment has already been damaged, with tariff-related topics dominating corporate earnings calls this year. Stocks highly correlated with trade have dropped about 15% since their January peak, while momentum stocks have experienced the most severe pullback in nearly 40 years, erasing two years of gains in just three weeks.

不管贸易谈判的最终结果如何，市场情绪已经受到损害，与关税有关的主题在今年占主导地位。自1月份高峰以来，与贸易高度相关的股票已下降了约15％，而动量股票在近40年内经历了最严重的回调，在短短三周内就消除了两年的收益。

In response to this situation, professional fund managers are exiting U.S. stock positions at an unprecedented pace, while Europe, the UK, and China have become the biggest beneficiaries due to their fiscal policy outlook.

为了应对这种情况，专业基金经理正在以前所未有的速度退出美国的股票职位，而欧洲，英国和中国由于其财政政策前景而成为最大的受益人。

Similarly, in terms of positioning, fund managers are concentrating on "low volatility" strategies at an unprecedented speed, with the performance of this factor rising to above the 92nd percentile historically, indicating that funds have shifted to extremely defensive positions.

同样，就定位而言，基金经理以前所未有的速度专注于“低波动性”策略，而这一因素的表现却高于历史上的第92个百分位数，这表明资金已转移到了极为防御的位置。

One positive factor is that retail investors are still holding onto their stock positions, even adding to them during recent declines, with bullish options trading volume and margin account balances remaining at high levels. Over the past few years, retail investors have often outperformed professional funds; will this strength continue?

一个积极的因素是，零售投资者仍在坚持自己的股票头寸，甚至在最近的下降期间增加了他们的股票职位，看涨期权交易量和保证金帐户余额仍保持高水平。在过去的几年中，散户投资者经常表现优于专业资金。这种力量会继续吗？

Overall market sentiment remains low and in an extremely oversold state, laying the groundwork for a potential rebound in risk assets in the short term. Google searches for "recession" are also nearing multi-year highs (similar to during the pandemic or financial crisis), further supporting the possibility of a relief rebound in the short term.

总体市场情绪仍然很低，在一个极其超额售的州处，为短期内的风险资产带来了基础。 Google搜索“衰退”也正在接近多年高点（类似于大流行或金融危机），进一步支持了短期内救援反弹的可能性。

Most importantly, the hard economic data indicators in the U.S. remain robust, contrasting sharply with the market's soft sentiment indicators, suggesting that the market's reaction to the current weakness may be overstretched. Over the past few years, macro observers' assessments have often been more pessimistic than the actual economic situation, and we believe that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are much stronger than the market fears.

最重要的是，美国的艰难经济数据指标仍然强大，与市场的软性情绪指标形成鲜明对比，这表明市场对当前弱点的反应可能会过度拉伸。在过去的几年中，宏观观察者的评估通常比实际的经济状况更为悲观，我们认为，美国经济的基本面比市场的恐惧要强得多。

In the cryptocurrency space, the market has also been relatively calm over the past week, with prices mostly fluctuating within a range, rebounding alongside U.S. stocks from recent lows. A recent survey by Bank of America on crowded trades found that after recent capital outflows from the U.S. stock market, cryptocurrency bulls have also seen a similar decline. ETF inflows have been positive for six consecutive trading days, although the volume remains sluggish.

在加密货币领域中，过去一周的市场也相对平静，价格大多在范围内波动，与最近的低点相连。美国银行最近对拥挤的行业进行的一项调查发现，在美国股市最近流出的资本流出后，加密货币公牛也有类似的下降。 ETF流入连续六个交易日一直是阳性的，尽管数量仍然迟钝。

From a technical perspective, prices remain in a downtrend but are currently stabilizing near key support levels, with ETH temporarily holding above the 2022 range highs, and the next important support level around 1500.

从技术的角度来看，价格仍然处于下降趋势，但目前正在稳定在关键支持水平附近，ETH暂时保持高于2022范围的高点，而下一个重要的支持水平左右约为1500。

As an additional observation, Bloomberg has uncovered an interesting pattern: the price of DOGE has shown an astonishingly synchronized movement with the BTC/gold ratio over the past two years. We make no comments on its trading significance or logical explanations; this industry's most representative meme coin is left for readers to appreciate the coincidence or insights.

作为另一个观察结果，彭博社发现了一种有趣的模式：在过去两年中，Doge的价格与BTC/Gold比率显示出惊人的同步运动。我们对其交易意义或逻辑解释没有发表评论；该行业最具代表性的模因硬币留给读者欣赏巧合或见解。

Finally, despite the recent price pullback, we still believe that 2024 will be a key breakthrough year for the virtual asset industry, primarily benefiting from a more relaxed regulatory environment, optimistic legislative expectations, and the continued expansion of mainstream adoption. The most representative cases are the recent major mergers and acquisitions involving U.S. cryptocurrency giants: Kraken announced its acquisition of NinjaTrader for $1.5 billion, officially entering the traditional futures market; while Coinbase is reportedly in talks to acquire Deribit, the world's largest cryptocurrency options exchange.

最后，尽管最近的价格下降，我们仍然认为，对于虚拟资产行业来说，2024年将是一个关键的突破，主要受益于更轻松的监管环境，乐观的立法期望以及主流采用的持续扩大。最具代表性的案件是最近涉及美国加密货币巨头的主要合并和收购：Kraken宣布以15亿美元的价格收购Ninjatrader，正式进入传统的期货市场；据报道，Coinbase正在谈论世界上最大的加密货币期权交易所的Deribit。