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美國國家海洋暨大氣總署氣候預報中心表示,11月出現弱拉尼娜現象的可能性為60%。
Forecasters say there is a good chance the world could see a long-lasting weather system begin next month, potentially bringing storms and even snow to the UK until March 2025.
預報員表示,世界很有可能在下個月看到一個持久的天氣系統,可能會為英國帶來風暴甚至降雪,直到 2025 年 3 月。
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre in the US, says there is a 60% chance that a weak La Niña event will develop in November.
美國國家海洋暨大氣總署氣候預報中心表示,11月出現弱拉尼娜現象的可能性為60%。
This could have a major impact on the UK’s winter weather, with colder and stormier conditions expected, particularly in northern and central areas. There is also a higher chance of snow.
這可能會對英國的冬季天氣產生重大影響,預計天氣會變得更冷、風暴更強,特別是在北部和中部地區。下雪的幾率也較高。
La Niña is part of a natural climate cycle that can cause extreme weather across the planet. During La Niña winters, the UK often experiences a colder and stormier winter with higher chances of snow, especially in northern and central areas.
拉尼娜現像是自然氣候週期的一部分,可能導致全球極端天氣。在拉尼娜現象的冬季,英國經常經歷一個更冷、更有暴風雨的冬天,下雪的機會也更高,特別是在北部和中部地區。
La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation - a naturally occurring global climate pattern that involves changes in wind and ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
拉尼娜現像是厄爾尼諾-南方濤動的涼爽階段,這是一種自然發生的全球氣候模式,涉及太平洋風和海洋溫度的變化。
During La Niña, the trade winds intensify and cold water from the depths of the sea rise up, resulting in cooler than average ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific.
在拉尼娜現象期間,信風增強,深海冷水上升,導致東太平洋海洋溫度低於平均值。
These cold ocean temperatures and changes in the atmosphere affect the position of the jet stream — a narrow band of fast moving air flowing from west to east around the planet — by bumping it northward.
這些寒冷的海洋溫度和大氣的變化會影響急流的位置,急流是圍繞地球從西向東流動的一條狹窄的快速移動氣流,將其向北撞擊。
The jet stream sits over the ocean and can tap into its moisture, influence the path storms take and boost precipitation.
急流位於海洋上空,可以利用其中的水分,影響風暴的路徑並增加降水。
Michelle L’Heurex, a climate scientist at the NOAA, explained that La Niñas tend to last longer and be more recurrent than El Niño events.
美國國家海洋暨大氣總署 (NOAA) 氣候科學家米歇爾·拉赫勒克斯 (Michelle L'Heurex) 解釋說,拉尼娜現象往往比厄爾尼諾現象持續時間更長、更頻繁。
“We had three back to back winters where we had La Niña conditions, which was unusual because the only other case of that happening was back in 1973 to 1976.”
“我們連續三個冬天都出現了拉尼娜現象,這很不尋常,因為唯一發生過這種情況的情況是在 1973 年至 1976 年。”
Climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Ben Cook said the forecast for this autumn is "unusual although it’s not unprecedented".
美國太空總署戈達德太空研究所的氣候科學家本·庫克表示,今年秋天的預測「不同尋常,儘管並非史無前例」。
He added that the frequency of La Niña events can be stressful for regions that have been dealing with drought lately, such as East Africa.
他補充說,拉尼娜事件的頻繁發生可能會給東非等最近遭遇乾旱的地區帶來壓力。
“If we’re moving into another La Niña event, it means kind of a continuation of those really bad conditions.”
“如果我們要進入另一場拉尼娜事件,這意味著那些非常糟糕的情況會繼續下去。”
A Met Office spokesman said: "The conditions for declaring 'La Niña' differ between different agencies, but during an event sea temperatures can often fall 3-5 °C below average. Cooler, drier than average weather is experienced in the tropical eastern Pacific.
英國氣象局發言人表示:「不同機構宣布'拉尼娜'的條件有所不同,但在事件發生期間,海水溫度通常會比平均水平低3-5°C。熱帶東太平洋地區的天氣比平均水平涼爽、乾燥。
"There are also neutral phases of the cycle when conditions are closer to the long-term average (within +/- 0.5 °C). These may be within a period of warming or cooling in the cycle. Approximately half of all years are described as neutral."
「當條件更接近長期平均值(+/- 0.5 °C 以內)時,循環中也存在中性階段。這些階段可能處於循環中變暖或變冷的時期內。描述了大約一半的年份作為中立。
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