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美国国家海洋和大气管理局气候预测中心表示,11月出现弱拉尼娜现象的可能性为60%。
Forecasters say there is a good chance the world could see a long-lasting weather system begin next month, potentially bringing storms and even snow to the UK until March 2025.
预报员表示,世界很有可能会在下个月看到一个持久的天气系统,可能会给英国带来风暴甚至降雪,直到 2025 年 3 月。
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre in the US, says there is a 60% chance that a weak La Niña event will develop in November.
美国国家海洋和大气管理局气候预测中心表示,11月出现弱拉尼娜现象的可能性为60%。
This could have a major impact on the UK’s winter weather, with colder and stormier conditions expected, particularly in northern and central areas. There is also a higher chance of snow.
这可能会对英国的冬季天气产生重大影响,预计天气会变得更冷、风暴更强,特别是在北部和中部地区。下雪的几率也较高。
La Niña is part of a natural climate cycle that can cause extreme weather across the planet. During La Niña winters, the UK often experiences a colder and stormier winter with higher chances of snow, especially in northern and central areas.
拉尼娜现象是自然气候周期的一部分,可能导致全球极端天气。在拉尼娜现象的冬季,英国经常会经历一个更冷、更有暴风雨的冬天,下雪的机会也更高,特别是在北部和中部地区。
La Niña is the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation - a naturally occurring global climate pattern that involves changes in wind and ocean temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
拉尼娜现象是厄尔尼诺-南方涛动的凉爽阶段,这是一种自然发生的全球气候模式,涉及太平洋风和海洋温度的变化。
During La Niña, the trade winds intensify and cold water from the depths of the sea rise up, resulting in cooler than average ocean temperatures in the eastern Pacific.
拉尼娜现象期间,信风增强,深海冷水上升,导致东太平洋海洋温度低于平均水平。
These cold ocean temperatures and changes in the atmosphere affect the position of the jet stream — a narrow band of fast moving air flowing from west to east around the planet — by bumping it northward.
这些寒冷的海洋温度和大气的变化会影响急流的位置,急流是围绕地球从西向东流动的一条狭窄的快速移动气流,将其向北撞击。
The jet stream sits over the ocean and can tap into its moisture, influence the path storms take and boost precipitation.
急流位于海洋上空,可以利用其中的水分,影响风暴的路径并增加降水。
Michelle L’Heurex, a climate scientist at the NOAA, explained that La Niñas tend to last longer and be more recurrent than El Niño events.
美国国家海洋和大气管理局 (NOAA) 气候科学家米歇尔·拉赫勒克斯 (Michelle L'Heurex) 解释说,拉尼娜现象往往比厄尔尼诺现象持续时间更长、更频繁。
“We had three back to back winters where we had La Niña conditions, which was unusual because the only other case of that happening was back in 1973 to 1976.”
“我们连续三个冬天都出现了拉尼娜现象,这很不寻常,因为唯一发生过这种情况的情况是在 1973 年至 1976 年。”
Climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Ben Cook said the forecast for this autumn is "unusual although it’s not unprecedented".
美国宇航局戈达德空间研究所的气候科学家本·库克表示,今年秋天的预测“不同寻常,尽管并非史无前例”。
He added that the frequency of La Niña events can be stressful for regions that have been dealing with drought lately, such as East Africa.
他补充说,拉尼娜事件的频繁发生可能会给东非等最近遭遇干旱的地区带来压力。
“If we’re moving into another La Niña event, it means kind of a continuation of those really bad conditions.”
“如果我们要进入另一场拉尼娜事件,这意味着那些非常糟糕的情况会继续下去。”
A Met Office spokesman said: "The conditions for declaring 'La Niña' differ between different agencies, but during an event sea temperatures can often fall 3-5 °C below average. Cooler, drier than average weather is experienced in the tropical eastern Pacific.
英国气象局发言人表示:“不同机构宣布‘拉尼娜’的条件有所不同,但在事件发生期间,海水温度通常会比平均水平低 3-5°C。热带东太平洋地区的天气比平均水平凉爽、干燥。
"There are also neutral phases of the cycle when conditions are closer to the long-term average (within +/- 0.5 °C). These may be within a period of warming or cooling in the cycle. Approximately half of all years are described as neutral."
“当条件更接近长期平均值(+/- 0.5 °C 以内)时,循环中也存在中性阶段。这些阶段可能处于循环中变暖或变冷的时期内。描述了大约一半的年份作为中立。”
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