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不断扩大的贸易赤字、35万亿美元的债务以及美元购买力的持续丧失长期以来一直被视为比特币牛市论点的关键支柱。
As bitcoin trades within a few percentage points of a fresh all-time high, there's a bull case that doesn't get talked about much, despite having a potentially large impact on the cryptocurrency's long-term price.
由于比特币的交易价格距离新的历史高点只有几个百分点,因此尽管对加密货币的长期价格有潜在的巨大影响,但牛市的情况并没有被太多谈论。
The total supply of bitcoin that will ever exist is capped at 21 million. A key part of the cryptocurrency's bull thesis is that less supply and constant or increasing demand will lead to higher prices.
比特币的总供应量上限为 2100 万枚。加密货币牛市论点的一个关键部分是,供应减少和需求持续或增加将导致价格上涨。
But there's a structural dynamic that could be decreasing the available supply of bitcoin even further than the 21 million that is widely touted. Some portion of the bitcoin that has been mined is likely getting lost.
但存在一种结构性动态,可能会进一步减少比特币的可用供应量,甚至比广泛吹捧的 2100 万还要少。已开采的部分比特币可能会丢失。
This happens when people lose their private keys, or the bitcoin is otherwise rendered inaccessible — for example, if someone dies without leaving instructions on how to transfer their crypto holdings.
当人们丢失私钥,或者比特币因其他原因而无法访问时,就会发生这种情况——例如,如果有人去世而没有留下如何转移其加密资产的说明。
A recent story in The New Yorker profiled a man in Wales who lost a trove of bitcoin that, at the time, was valued at around $500 million. He accidentally threw a hard drive containing his bitcoin stash in the dump.
《纽约客》最近的一篇报道描述了一名威尔士男子丢失了一批比特币,这些比特币当时价值约 5 亿美元。他不小心将一个装有比特币的硬盘扔进了垃圾场。
"It is probably only with the passage of time that we can get a sense for just how much of the bitcoin supply has been lost," Fundstrat's Farrell said.
Fundstrat 的法雷尔表示:“可能只有随着时间的推移,我们才能了解比特币供应到底损失了多少。”
Relative to other assets, bitcoin is unique in that it doesn't pay out dividends or interest, and there's no central authority minting new tokens to adjust the supply and demand dynamic. Instead, the supply is fixed at 21 million.
相对于其他资产,比特币的独特之处在于它不支付股息或利息,并且没有中央机构铸造新的代币来调整供需动态。相反,供应量固定为 2100 万个。
This characteristic has led some investors to liken bitcoin to a digital gold, and they point out that the precious metal also has a fixed supply. But there's a key difference.
这一特性导致一些投资者将比特币比作数字黄金,他们指出这种贵金属也有固定的供应量。但有一个关键的区别。
"If someone loses their gold bar at the bottom of a lake, it is still gold and can be recovered at a later date," Farrell said. "Bitcoin that is lost is essentially 'burned' for good."
“如果有人在湖底丢失了金条,它仍然是金子,可以在以后找回,”法雷尔说。 “丢失的比特币本质上是永久‘烧毁’的。”
"This lost bitcoin dynamic is a bullish asymmetry that is not fully appreciated by the market," he added.
“这种失去的比特币动力是一种看涨的不对称性,市场尚未充分认识到这一点,”他补充道。
Fundstrat's Farrell estimates that 1.5 million bitcoins, or about 7.5% of the total supply, could be deemed "probably lost" because they haven't moved since the launch of the first bitcoin exchange in 2010.
Fundstrat 的法雷尔估计,150 万枚比特币(约占总供应量的 7.5%)可能被视为“可能丢失”,因为自 2010 年第一个比特币交易所推出以来,它们就没有移动过。
This estimation is likely on the conservative side, as there's no way to know for sure how much bitcoin is truly lost, he said. A large portion of bitcoin that was mined early on is still sitting on the sidelines today.
他说,这种估计可能比较保守,因为无法确定比特币真正损失了多少。早期开采的大部分比特币如今仍处于观望状态。
"Bitcoin's true float is undoubtedly below 21 million," Farrell told Business Insider. "This is something that we all know to be true but is nearly impossible to verify."
Farrell 告诉 Business Insider:“比特币的真实流通量无疑低于 2100 万。” “我们都知道这是真的,但几乎无法验证。”
Many sophisticated investors who own a large amount of bitcoin often opt to store the cryptocurrency on encrypted cold wallets to protect against hacks.
许多拥有大量比特币的成熟投资者通常选择将加密货币存储在加密的冷钱包中,以防止黑客攻击。
In these cases, that means the bitcoin is not held on an exchange like Coinbase, which has a recovery process for family members of deceased customers.
在这些情况下,这意味着比特币不会存放在像 Coinbase 这样的交易所,而 Coinbase 为已故客户的家庭成员提供了恢复程序。
Rather, it's typically held on a physical USB drive that could look meaningless to an unassuming eye and get easily lost or looked over in the shuffle of cleaning up an estate.
相反,它通常保存在物理 USB 驱动器上,在不起眼的人看来,它可能毫无意义,并且很容易丢失或在清理房产的过程中被查找到。
Bitcoin's decentralized nature also means no bank or authority can access or recover the assets without the private key to the wallet or hard drive.
比特币的去中心化性质还意味着,如果没有钱包或硬盘的私钥,任何银行或机构都无法访问或恢复资产。
"Unlike traditional financial accounts, there is no institution to contact to recover your cryptocurrency. If no one has your private key, the funds will be locked permanently," Wealthica CEO Eric Lemieux told Business Insider.
“与传统的金融账户不同,没有任何机构可以联系来恢复你的加密货币。如果没有人拥有你的私钥,资金将被永久锁定,”Wealthica 首席执行官 Eric Lemieux 告诉 Business Insider。
He added: "If you store your bitcoin in a cold wallet and die without giving someone access to your private recovery keys or recovery phrases, the bitcoin could be lost forever."
他补充道:“如果你将比特币存储在冷钱包中,然后在没有让别人访问你的私人恢复密钥或恢复短语的情况下去世,那么比特币可能会永远丢失。”
According to Lemieux, it is imperative for bitcoin investors who hold the asset on a cold wallet to ensure that their estate planning "includes your private key or recovery phrase through a lawyer or encrypted document stored securely."
Lemieux 表示,对于在冷钱包上持有资产的比特币投资者来说,确保他们的遗产规划“包括通过律师或安全存储的加密文件提供的私钥或恢复短语”。
"This will ensure that, in the event of your passing, your heirs will be able to access and claim your bitcoin," he said.
他说:“这将确保,如果您去世,您的继承人将能够访问并领取您的比特币。”
Otherwise, more lost bitcoin could mean even higher prices for the crypto.
否则,更多的比特币丢失可能意味着加密货币的价格更高。
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