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不斷擴大的貿易赤字、35兆美元的債務以及美元購買力的持續喪失長期以來一直被視為比特幣牛市論點的關鍵支柱。
As bitcoin trades within a few percentage points of a fresh all-time high, there's a bull case that doesn't get talked about much, despite having a potentially large impact on the cryptocurrency's long-term price.
由於比特幣的交易價格距離新的歷史高點只有幾個百分點,因此儘管對加密貨幣的長期價格有潛在的巨大影響,但牛市的情況並沒有被太多談論。
The total supply of bitcoin that will ever exist is capped at 21 million. A key part of the cryptocurrency's bull thesis is that less supply and constant or increasing demand will lead to higher prices.
比特幣的總供應量上限為 2,100 萬枚。加密貨幣牛市論點的關鍵部分是,供應減少和需求持續或增加將導致價格上漲。
But there's a structural dynamic that could be decreasing the available supply of bitcoin even further than the 21 million that is widely touted. Some portion of the bitcoin that has been mined is likely getting lost.
但存在一種結構性動態,可能會進一步減少比特幣的可用供應量,甚至比廣泛吹捧的 2,100 萬還要少。已開採的部分比特幣可能會遺失。
This happens when people lose their private keys, or the bitcoin is otherwise rendered inaccessible — for example, if someone dies without leaving instructions on how to transfer their crypto holdings.
當人們丟失私鑰,或者比特幣因其他原因而無法訪問時,就會發生這種情況——例如,如果有人去世而沒有留下如何轉移其加密資產的說明。
A recent story in The New Yorker profiled a man in Wales who lost a trove of bitcoin that, at the time, was valued at around $500 million. He accidentally threw a hard drive containing his bitcoin stash in the dump.
《紐約客》最近的一篇報導描述了一名威爾斯男子丟失了一批比特幣,這些比特幣當時價值約 5 億美元。他不小心將一個裝有比特幣的硬碟扔進了垃圾場。
"It is probably only with the passage of time that we can get a sense for just how much of the bitcoin supply has been lost," Fundstrat's Farrell said.
Fundstrat 的法雷爾表示:“可能只有隨著時間的推移,我們才能了解比特幣供應到底損失了多少。”
Relative to other assets, bitcoin is unique in that it doesn't pay out dividends or interest, and there's no central authority minting new tokens to adjust the supply and demand dynamic. Instead, the supply is fixed at 21 million.
相對於其他資產,比特幣的獨特之處在於它不支付股息或利息,也沒有中央機構鑄造新的代幣來調整供需動態。相反,供應量固定為 2,100 萬個。
This characteristic has led some investors to liken bitcoin to a digital gold, and they point out that the precious metal also has a fixed supply. But there's a key difference.
這個特性導致一些投資者將比特幣比喻為數位黃金,他們指出這種貴金屬也有固定的供應量。但有一個關鍵的區別。
"If someone loses their gold bar at the bottom of a lake, it is still gold and can be recovered at a later date," Farrell said. "Bitcoin that is lost is essentially 'burned' for good."
「如果有人在湖底丟失了金條,它仍然是金子,可以在以後找回,」法雷爾說。 “丟失的比特幣本質上是永久‘燒毀’的。”
"This lost bitcoin dynamic is a bullish asymmetry that is not fully appreciated by the market," he added.
「這種失去的比特幣動態是一種看漲的不對稱性,市場尚未充分認識到這一點,」他補充道。
Fundstrat's Farrell estimates that 1.5 million bitcoins, or about 7.5% of the total supply, could be deemed "probably lost" because they haven't moved since the launch of the first bitcoin exchange in 2010.
Fundstrat 的法雷爾估計,150 萬枚比特幣(約佔總供應量的7.5%)可能被視為“可能丟失”,因為自2010 年第一個比特幣交易所推出以來,它們就沒有移動過。
This estimation is likely on the conservative side, as there's no way to know for sure how much bitcoin is truly lost, he said. A large portion of bitcoin that was mined early on is still sitting on the sidelines today.
他說,這種估計可能比較保守,因為無法確定比特幣真正損失了多少。早期開採的大部分比特幣如今仍處於觀望狀態。
"Bitcoin's true float is undoubtedly below 21 million," Farrell told Business Insider. "This is something that we all know to be true but is nearly impossible to verify."
Farrell 告訴 Business Insider:“比特幣的真實流通量無疑低於 2100 萬。” “我們都知道這是真的,但幾乎無法驗證。”
Many sophisticated investors who own a large amount of bitcoin often opt to store the cryptocurrency on encrypted cold wallets to protect against hacks.
許多擁有大量比特幣的成熟投資者通常選擇將加密貨幣儲存在加密的冷錢包中,以防止駭客攻擊。
In these cases, that means the bitcoin is not held on an exchange like Coinbase, which has a recovery process for family members of deceased customers.
在這些情況下,這意味著比特幣不會存放在像 Coinbase 這樣的交易所,而 Coinbase 為已故客戶的家庭成員提供了恢復程序。
Rather, it's typically held on a physical USB drive that could look meaningless to an unassuming eye and get easily lost or looked over in the shuffle of cleaning up an estate.
相反,它通常保存在實體 USB 驅動器上,在不起眼的人看來,它可能毫無意義,並且很容易丟失或在清理房產的過程中被查找到。
Bitcoin's decentralized nature also means no bank or authority can access or recover the assets without the private key to the wallet or hard drive.
比特幣的去中心化性質也意味著,如果沒有錢包或硬碟的私鑰,任何銀行或機構都無法存取或恢復資產。
"Unlike traditional financial accounts, there is no institution to contact to recover your cryptocurrency. If no one has your private key, the funds will be locked permanently," Wealthica CEO Eric Lemieux told Business Insider.
「與傳統的金融帳戶不同,沒有任何機構可以聯繫來恢復你的加密貨幣。如果沒有人擁有你的私鑰,資金將永久鎖定,」Wealthica 執行長 Eric Lemieux 告訴 Business Insider。
He added: "If you store your bitcoin in a cold wallet and die without giving someone access to your private recovery keys or recovery phrases, the bitcoin could be lost forever."
他補充說:“如果你將比特幣存儲在冷錢包中,然後在沒有讓別人訪問你的私人恢復密鑰或恢復短語的情況下去世,那麼比特幣可能會永遠丟失。”
According to Lemieux, it is imperative for bitcoin investors who hold the asset on a cold wallet to ensure that their estate planning "includes your private key or recovery phrase through a lawyer or encrypted document stored securely."
Lemieux 表示,對於在冷錢包上持有資產的比特幣投資者來說,確保他們的遺產規劃「包括透過律師或安全儲存的加密文件提供的私鑰或恢復短語」。
"This will ensure that, in the event of your passing, your heirs will be able to access and claim your bitcoin," he said.
「這將確保,如果您去世,您的繼承人將能夠訪問並領取您的比特幣,」他說。
Otherwise, more lost bitcoin could mean even higher prices for the crypto.
否則,更多的比特幣遺失可能意味著加密貨幣的價格更高。
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