2025 年投資人需要了解的加密貨幣知識：預測、風險與機會

當我們駕馭加密貨幣市場快速變化的趨勢時，投資者發現自己面臨著令人興奮的機會和令人畏懼的風險。隨著比特幣價值 198 億美元的巨額選擇權合約即將於 12 月 27 日到期，市場動態再次受到密切關注。但未來會怎樣，特別是當我們把目光投向 2025 年？

As Bitcoin recently crossed the $100,000 threshold, a massive event is set to unfold on December 27 at 8 a.m. UTC, with the expiration of Bitcoin’s colossal options contract, valued at $19.8 billion. This occurrence is poised to significantly impact market dynamics once again.

隨著比特幣最近突破 10 萬美元大關，一場重大事件將於世界標準時間 12 月 27 日上午 8 點展開，屆時價值 198 億美元的比特幣巨額期權合約即將到期。這一事件將再次對市場動態產生重大影響。

A Surprising Shift in Market Dynamics

市場動態的驚人轉變

Fresh statistics reveal a surprising dominance of call options, boasting an open interest of $12 billion, which dwarfs the $7.8 billion in put options. A notable presence in this market activity is Deribit, which commands 72% of trades, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Binance, holding 12% and 9% respectively. Over the past three months, Bitcoin has skyrocketed by 68%, rendering most put options practically worthless.

最新統計數據顯示看漲期權出人意料地佔據主導地位，未平倉合約高達 120 億美元，這讓 78 億美元的看跌期權相形見絀。在這項市場活動中，值得注意的是 Deribit，它佔了 72% 的交易量，其次是芝加哥商業交易所和幣安，分別佔 12% 和 9%。過去三個月，比特幣飆升了 68%，使得大多數看跌期權幾乎一文不值。

A Tale of Two Markets: Institutional Influence

兩個市場的故事：制度影響

The bullish momentum has been largely attributed to institutional investors, who are flocking to Bitcoin en masse. The first half of December saw a record-breaking $4.5 billion flow into Bitcoin ETFs, with MicroStrategy making a significant purchase of 21,550 Bitcoins at an average cost of $98,783 each during early December. Another major acquisition was undertaken by MARA Holdings, adding 11,744 Bitcoins to their reserves on December 10.

看漲勢頭很大程度歸功於機構投資者，他們紛紛湧向比特幣。 12 月上半月，比特幣 ETF 流入金額達到創紀錄的 45 億美元，MicroStrategy 在 12 月初以平均每枚 98,783 美元的價格大量購買了 21,550 枚比特幣。 MARA Holdings 進行了另一項重大收購，於 12 月 10 日為其儲備增加了 11,744 個比特幣。

Strategic Government Proposals in the Limelight

備受矚目的政府戰略提案

Market attention is also captivated by the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve proposal, spearheaded by Senator Cynthia Lummis, which could see the government amassing up to one million Bitcoins. Discussions are also brewing in states like Texas regarding the classification of Bitcoin as a national asset.

由參議員辛西婭·盧米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 牽頭的美國戰略比特幣儲備提案也吸引了市場的注意力，該提案可能會讓政府積累多達 100 萬枚比特幣。德州等州也正在醞釀將比特幣歸類為國家資產的討論。

As the December 27 expiry approaches, Bitcoin’s stability around $100,500 could markedly reduce put options’ value, while short-sellers are likely to strive to drive prices below $95,000 to mitigate losses. This expiration serves as a pivotal moment, which may heavily influence the continuation of the year’s end bullish trend.

隨著 12 月 27 日到期日的臨近，比特幣穩定在 100,500 美元左右可能會顯著降低看跌期權的價值，而賣空者可能會努力將價格壓至 95,000 美元以下以減輕損失。此次到期是一個關鍵時刻，可能會嚴重影響年底看漲趨勢的延續。