比特幣 (CRYPTO: BTC) 可能在 2025 年達到 20 萬美元，原因如下

n，Motley Fool 貢獻者

Just a few years ago, the prospect of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reaching $100,000 seemed far-fetched -- but it happened. And now, the next potential target investors have their eyes on is $200,000.

就在幾年前，比特幣（CRYPTO：BTC）達到 10 萬美元的前景似乎有些牽強，但它確實發生了。現在，投資者關注的下一個潛在目標是 20 萬美元。

While I did predict Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2024, the truth is that no one knows for sure what will happen. We like to think markets are rational, but they aren't -- they're irrational. And to add to the complexity of prediction, this is crypto, so anything can happen.

雖然我確實預測比特幣將在 2024 年達到 10 萬美元，但事實是沒有人確切知道會發生什麼。我們喜歡認為市場是理性的，但事實並非如此——它們是非理性的。為了增加預測的複雜性，這是加密的，所以任何事情都有可能發生。

But that's not what you came here for. Granted, making price predictions for Bitcoin is inherently speculative, but hey, it's fun. To keep things grounded while examining the possibilities for Bitcoin in 2025, I'm going to analyze three key data points.

但這不是你來這裡的目的。誠然，對比特幣進行價格預測本質上是投機性的，但是嘿，這很有趣。為了在研究 2025 年比特幣的可能性時保持腳踏實地，我將分析三個關鍵數據點。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖片來源：蓋蒂圖片社。

The cyclical nature of Bitcoin

比特幣的周期性

Bitcoin has followed a remarkably consistent four-year cycle over the past 16 years, and so far, 2025 seems to be aligning with historical patterns. These cycles typically begin with a bear market (think 2022), where long-term believers accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices.

在過去 16 年裡，比特幣遵循了非常一致的四年周期，到目前為止，2025 年似乎與歷史模式相符。這些週期通常始於熊市（想想 2022 年），長期信徒以折扣價累積比特幣。

Next comes a year of modest recovery as momentum builds (2023). Then, the halving comes and reduces Bitcoin's issuance rate, sparking greater scarcity and catalyzing major gains (2024). Finally, the post-halving year (which would be 2025) sees widespread attention return to Bitcoin, with new investors piling in, often driving parabolic price increases.

接下來是隨著勢頭增強而溫和復甦的一年（2023 年）。然後，減半到來並降低比特幣的發行率，引發更大的稀缺性並催化重大收益（2024 年）。最後，在減半後的一年（即 2025 年），比特幣將受到廣泛關注，新投資者紛紛湧入，往往會推動價格呈拋物線式上漲。

In 2024, Bitcoin has done exactly what it has in previous cycles -- recovered from its lows and rallied after the halving. This consistency suggests that 2025 may be no different. While making assumptions based on historical patterns can be risky, they provide a solid base case until contrary evidence emerges.

2024 年，比特幣的表現與先前的周期完全一樣——從低點反彈，並在減半後反彈。這種一致性表明 2025 年可能不會有什麼不同。雖然根據歷史模式做出假設可能存在風險，但它們提供了堅實的基礎案例，直到相反的證據出現。

Evaluating post-halving performance

評估減半後的表現

Since it appears that Bitcoin is following its cyclical pattern, we can take a look at how Bitcoin fares in years after it undergoes a halving. As it turns out, post-halving years have historically been Bitcoin's strongest. On average, Bitcoin's price has jumped more than 400% during these years. If history repeats, a 400% gain from Bitcoin's price of about $100,000 would put it at roughly $500,000 by the end of 2025.

由於比特幣似乎遵循其週期性模式，我們可以看看比特幣在經歷減半後幾年的表現。事實證明，減半後的幾年是比特幣史上最強勁的時期。平均而言，這些年來比特幣的價格上漲了 400% 以上。如果歷史重演，比特幣價格從約 10 萬美元上漲 400%，到 2025 年底將達到約 50 萬美元。

I'll be the first to say this might be a bit tough for Bitcoin to reach. The crypto's price movements are less susceptible to giant gains as its market has grown. In other words, it takes more money to move Bitcoin 5% with its market cap of $2 trillion today, compared to when it was just $500 billion a few years ago.

我會第一個說這對比特幣來說可能有點難實現。隨著市場的成長，加密貨幣的價格走勢較不容易受到巨大漲幅的影響。換句話說，與幾年前的市值僅 5,000 億美元相比，如今比特幣市值已達 2 兆美元，需要更多資金才能上漲 5%。

As a result of this dynamic, Bitcoin has a tendency to produce diminishing returns with each cycle that passes. The first cycle was the most explosive, and every cycle since has lost a little steam.

由於這種動態，比特幣傾向於隨著每個週期的過去而產生收益遞減的趨勢。第一個週期最具爆炸性，此後的每個週期都失去了一點動力。

There's no exact pattern to determine how much less each cycle will return, but a conservative estimate might be half the returns of the previous cycle. At this reduced rate, when measuring from its cycle bottom in November 2022, Bitcoin could reach $210,000.

沒有確切的模式來確定每個週期的回報會減少多少，但保守估計可能是上一個週期回報的一半。以這個下降的速度，從 2022 年 11 月的周期底部開始計算，比特幣可能會達到 21 萬美元。

The game changer: Spot Bitcoin ETFs

遊戲規則改變者：現貨比特幣 ETF

Granted, a $210,000 price tag sounds almost absurd. However, there's one significant development that could help it reach this lofty milestone -- spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These financial instruments got the green light for approval in January 2024 and allow investors to add Bitcoin exposure to pension funds, hedge funds, and 401(k)s via the stock market in an accessible and familiar way.

誠然，21 萬美元的標價聽起來近乎荒謬。然而，有一項重大進展可以幫助其實現這一崇高里程碑——現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）。這些金融工具於 2024 年 1 月獲得批准，允許投資者以易於理解和熟悉的方式透過股票市場將比特幣投資於退休基金、對沖基金和 401(k) 計劃。

This might not sound like a big deal, but the demand for these ETFs has been astonishing, especially when considering they aren't even a year old. In early 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs were purchasing Bitcoin at rates over 10 times the daily issuance rate. This appetite for Bitcoin was a primary driver behind the crypto reaching a new all-time high before the halving, something it had never done before.

這聽起來可能沒什麼大不了的，但對這些 ETF 的需求卻是驚人的，尤其是考慮到它們成立不到一年。 2024 年初，現貨比特幣 ETF 以超過每日發行率 10 倍的價格購買比特幣。這種對比特幣的興趣是加密貨幣在減半之前達到歷史新高的主要驅動力，這是以前從未做過的。

Consider this: BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust became the fastest ETF in history to surpass $50 billion in assets under management (AUM), far outpacing the previous record holder. Combined, the 11 Bitcoin ETFs now collectively hold more Bitcoin than any individual entity, cementing their influence on the market.

想想看：貝萊德的 iShares 比特幣信託成為歷史上管理資產 (AUM) 突破 500 億美元最快的 ETF，遠遠超過了之前的紀錄保持者。目前，這 11 隻比特幣 ETF 持有的比特幣數量總計超過任何單一實體，從而鞏固了它們對市場的影響力。

These ETFs represent a new X factor that could fundamentally alter Bitcoin's traditional cyclical dynamics. Their near-constant demand could provide a floor price for Bitcoin while amplifying upside potential during bull markets.

這些 ETF 代表了一個新的 X 因素，可能從根本上改變比特幣的傳統週期性動態。他們近乎恆定的需求可能會為比特幣提供底價，同時放大牛市期間的上行潛力。

What's the takeaway?

外賣是什麼？

Bitcoin'

比特幣'