比特币 (CRYPTO: BTC) 可能在 2025 年达到 200,000 美元，原因如下

n，Motley Fool 贡献者

Just a few years ago, the prospect of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reaching $100,000 seemed far-fetched -- but it happened. And now, the next potential target investors have their eyes on is $200,000.

就在几年前，比特币（CRYPTO：BTC）达到 10 万美元的前景似乎有些牵强，但它确实发生了。现在，投资者关注的下一个潜在目标是 20 万美元。

While I did predict Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2024, the truth is that no one knows for sure what will happen. We like to think markets are rational, but they aren't -- they're irrational. And to add to the complexity of prediction, this is crypto, so anything can happen.

虽然我确实预测比特币将在 2024 年达到 10 万美元，但事实是没有人确切知道会发生什么。我们喜欢认为市场是理性的，但事实并非如此——它们是非理性的。为了增加预测的复杂性，这是加密的，所以任何事情都有可能发生。

But that's not what you came here for. Granted, making price predictions for Bitcoin is inherently speculative, but hey, it's fun. To keep things grounded while examining the possibilities for Bitcoin in 2025, I'm going to analyze three key data points.

但这不是你来这里的目的。诚然，对比特币进行价格预测本质上是投机性的，但是嘿，这很有趣。为了在研究 2025 年比特币的可能性时保持脚踏实地，我将分析三个关键数据点。

Image source: Getty Images.

图片来源：盖蒂图片社。

The cyclical nature of Bitcoin

比特币的周期性

Bitcoin has followed a remarkably consistent four-year cycle over the past 16 years, and so far, 2025 seems to be aligning with historical patterns. These cycles typically begin with a bear market (think 2022), where long-term believers accumulate Bitcoin at discounted prices.

过去 16 年里，比特币遵循了非常一致的四年周期，到目前为止，2025 年似乎与历史模式相符。这些周期通常始于熊市（想想 2022 年），长期信徒以折扣价积累比特币。

Next comes a year of modest recovery as momentum builds (2023). Then, the halving comes and reduces Bitcoin's issuance rate, sparking greater scarcity and catalyzing major gains (2024). Finally, the post-halving year (which would be 2025) sees widespread attention return to Bitcoin, with new investors piling in, often driving parabolic price increases.

接下来是随着势头增强而温和复苏的一年（2023 年）。然后，减半到来并降低比特币的发行率，引发更大的稀缺性并催化重大收益（2024 年）。最后，在减半后的一年（即 2025 年），比特币将受到广泛关注，新投资者纷纷涌入，往往会推动价格呈抛物线式上涨。

In 2024, Bitcoin has done exactly what it has in previous cycles -- recovered from its lows and rallied after the halving. This consistency suggests that 2025 may be no different. While making assumptions based on historical patterns can be risky, they provide a solid base case until contrary evidence emerges.

2024 年，比特币的表现与之前的周期完全一样——从低点反弹，并在减半后反弹。这种一致性表明 2025 年可能不会有什么不同。虽然根据历史模式做出假设可能存在风险，但它们提供了坚实的基础案例，直到出现相反的证据。

Evaluating post-halving performance

评估减半后的表现

Since it appears that Bitcoin is following its cyclical pattern, we can take a look at how Bitcoin fares in years after it undergoes a halving. As it turns out, post-halving years have historically been Bitcoin's strongest. On average, Bitcoin's price has jumped more than 400% during these years. If history repeats, a 400% gain from Bitcoin's price of about $100,000 would put it at roughly $500,000 by the end of 2025.

由于比特币似乎遵循其周期性模式，我们可以看看比特币在经历减半后几年的表现。事实证明，减半后的几年是比特币历史上最强劲的时期。平均而言，这些年来比特币的价格上涨了 400% 以上。如果历史重演，比特币价格从约 10 万美元上涨 400%，到 2025 年底将达到约 50 万美元。

I'll be the first to say this might be a bit tough for Bitcoin to reach. The crypto's price movements are less susceptible to giant gains as its market has grown. In other words, it takes more money to move Bitcoin 5% with its market cap of $2 trillion today, compared to when it was just $500 billion a few years ago.

我会第一个说这对于比特币来说可能有点难以实现。随着市场的增长，加密货币的价格走势不太容易受到巨大涨幅的影响。换句话说，如今比特币市值已达 2 万亿美元，而几年前仅为 5000 亿美元，需要更多资金才能将比特币价格上涨 5%。

As a result of this dynamic, Bitcoin has a tendency to produce diminishing returns with each cycle that passes. The first cycle was the most explosive, and every cycle since has lost a little steam.

由于这种动态，比特币倾向于随着每个周期的过去而产生收益递减的趋势。第一个周期最具爆炸性，此后的每个周期都失去了一点动力。

There's no exact pattern to determine how much less each cycle will return, but a conservative estimate might be half the returns of the previous cycle. At this reduced rate, when measuring from its cycle bottom in November 2022, Bitcoin could reach $210,000.

没有确切的模式来确定每个周期的回报会减少多少，但保守估计可能是上一个周期回报的一半。按照这个下降的速度，从 2022 年 11 月的周期底部开始计算，比特币可能会达到 21 万美元。

The game changer: Spot Bitcoin ETFs

游戏规则改变者：现货比特币 ETF

Granted, a $210,000 price tag sounds almost absurd. However, there's one significant development that could help it reach this lofty milestone -- spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). These financial instruments got the green light for approval in January 2024 and allow investors to add Bitcoin exposure to pension funds, hedge funds, and 401(k)s via the stock market in an accessible and familiar way.

诚然，21 万美元的标价听起来近乎荒谬。然而，有一项重大进展可以帮助其实现这一崇高里程碑——现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）。这些金融工具于 2024 年 1 月获得批准，允许投资者以一种易于理解和熟悉的方式通过股票市场将比特币投资于养老基金、对冲基金和 401(k) 计划。

This might not sound like a big deal, but the demand for these ETFs has been astonishing, especially when considering they aren't even a year old. In early 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs were purchasing Bitcoin at rates over 10 times the daily issuance rate. This appetite for Bitcoin was a primary driver behind the crypto reaching a new all-time high before the halving, something it had never done before.

这听起来可能没什么大不了的，但对这些 ETF 的需求却是惊人的，尤其是考虑到它们成立还不到一年。 2024 年初，现货比特币 ETF 以超过每日发行率 10 倍的价格购买比特币。这种对比特币的兴趣是加密货币在减半之前达到历史新高的主要驱动力，这是以前从未做过的。

Consider this: BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust became the fastest ETF in history to surpass $50 billion in assets under management (AUM), far outpacing the previous record holder. Combined, the 11 Bitcoin ETFs now collectively hold more Bitcoin than any individual entity, cementing their influence on the market.

考虑一下：贝莱德的 iShares 比特币信托成为历史上管理资产 (AUM) 突破 500 亿美元最快的 ETF，远远超过了之前的纪录保持者。目前，这 11 只比特币 ETF 持有的比特币数量合计超过任何单个实体，从而巩固了它们对市场的影响力。

These ETFs represent a new X factor that could fundamentally alter Bitcoin's traditional cyclical dynamics. Their near-constant demand could provide a floor price for Bitcoin while amplifying upside potential during bull markets.

这些 ETF 代表了一个新的 X 因素，可能从根本上改变比特币的传统周期性动态。他们近乎恒定的需求可能会为比特币提供底价，同时放大牛市期间的上行潜力。

What's the takeaway?

外卖是什么？

Bitcoin'

比特币'