2025 年投资者需要了解的加密货币知识：预测、风险和机遇

当我们驾驭加密货币市场快速变化的潮流时，投资者发现自己面临着令人兴奋的机遇和令人畏惧的风险。随着比特币价值 198 亿美元的巨额期权合约即将于 12 月 27 日到期，市场动态再次受到密切关注。但未来会怎样，特别是当我们把目光投向 2025 年时？

As Bitcoin recently crossed the $100,000 threshold, a massive event is set to unfold on December 27 at 8 a.m. UTC, with the expiration of Bitcoin’s colossal options contract, valued at $19.8 billion. This occurrence is poised to significantly impact market dynamics once again.

随着比特币最近突破 10 万美元大关，一场重大事件将于世界标准时间 12 月 27 日上午 8 点展开，届时价值 198 亿美元的比特币巨额期权合约即将到期。这一事件将再次对市场动态产生重大影响。

A Surprising Shift in Market Dynamics

市场动态的惊人转变

Fresh statistics reveal a surprising dominance of call options, boasting an open interest of $12 billion, which dwarfs the $7.8 billion in put options. A notable presence in this market activity is Deribit, which commands 72% of trades, followed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Binance, holding 12% and 9% respectively. Over the past three months, Bitcoin has skyrocketed by 68%, rendering most put options practically worthless.

最新统计数据显示，看涨期权令人惊讶地占据主导地位，未平仓合约高达 120 亿美元，这让 78 亿美元的看跌期权相形见绌。在这一市场活动中，值得注意的是 Deribit，它占据了 72% 的交易量，其次是芝加哥商业交易所和币安，分别占据 12% 和 9%。过去三个月，比特币飙升了 68%，使得大多数看跌期权几乎一文不值。

A Tale of Two Markets: Institutional Influence

两个市场的故事：制度影响

The bullish momentum has been largely attributed to institutional investors, who are flocking to Bitcoin en masse. The first half of December saw a record-breaking $4.5 billion flow into Bitcoin ETFs, with MicroStrategy making a significant purchase of 21,550 Bitcoins at an average cost of $98,783 each during early December. Another major acquisition was undertaken by MARA Holdings, adding 11,744 Bitcoins to their reserves on December 10.

看涨势头很大程度上归功于机构投资者，他们纷纷涌向比特币。 12 月上半月，比特币 ETF 流入金额达到创纪录的 45 亿美元，MicroStrategy 在 12 月初以平均每枚 98,783 美元的价格大量购买了 21,550 枚比特币。 MARA Holdings 进行了另一项重大收购，于 12 月 10 日为其储备增加了 11,744 个比特币。

Strategic Government Proposals in the Limelight

备受瞩目的政府战略提案

Market attention is also captivated by the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve proposal, spearheaded by Senator Cynthia Lummis, which could see the government amassing up to one million Bitcoins. Discussions are also brewing in states like Texas regarding the classification of Bitcoin as a national asset.

由参议员辛西娅·卢米斯 (Cynthia Lummis) 牵头的美国战略比特币储备提案也吸引了市场的注意力，该提案可能会让政府积累多达 100 万枚比特币。德克萨斯州等州也正在酝酿将比特币归类为国家资产的讨论。

As the December 27 expiry approaches, Bitcoin’s stability around $100,500 could markedly reduce put options’ value, while short-sellers are likely to strive to drive prices below $95,000 to mitigate losses. This expiration serves as a pivotal moment, which may heavily influence the continuation of the year’s end bullish trend.

随着 12 月 27 日到期日的临近，比特币稳定在 100,500 美元左右可能会显着降低看跌期权的价值，而卖空者可能会努力将价格压至 95,000 美元以下以减轻损失。此次到期是一个关键时刻，可能会严重影响年底看涨趋势的延续。