2022 年，我在比特幣上投資了 50 美元。

歡迎來到 2025 年。正如我自 2022 年以來的每一篇文章一樣，我將討論比特幣。

I started 2022 with a bold experiment: I decided to invest my entire PayPal account balance in Bitcoin. At the time, that amounted to a "vast" sum of $50 (plus another $1.15 in PayPal fees). I documented my experience throughout the year, and now, on Jan. 1, 2025, I'm back to tell you how my investment fared over the last 12 months.

2022 年伊始，我進行了一個大膽的實驗：我決定將我的 PayPal 帳戶餘額全數投資於比特幣。當時，這相當於 50 美元的「巨額」金額（另加 1.15 美元的 PayPal 費用）。我記錄了我全年的經歷，現在，2025 年 1 月 1 日，我回來告訴你們我的投資在過去 12 個月的表現如何。

To quickly recap my 2022 experience, I lost a lot of money on my Bitcoin holdings. By July 1, my investment had dropped by 60%. I decided to stop checking on it and returned on New Year's Day of 2023 to find that I'd lost 66% of my original investment. I was glad I hadn't bought into Bitcoin earlier, when prices were much higher.

快速回顧我 2022 年的經歷，我持有的比特幣損失了很多錢。到 7 月 1 日，我的投資下降了 60%。我決定停止查看，並在 2023 年元旦返回時發現我損失了原始投資的 66%。我很高興自己沒有在價格高得多的時候購買比特幣。

I waited to check on my investment again until New Year's Day of 2024. By then, the value of my holdings had nearly doubled since the previous July. However, I was still underwater on the investment.

直到 2024 年元旦，我才再次檢查我的投資。然而，我在投資上仍然陷入困境。

Now, finally, we arrive at New Year's Day, 2025. While I didn't check on my investment throughout 2024, I've been following the news closely.

現在，終於到了 2025 年元旦。

First, there was the Bitcoin halving process. A scarcity algorithm is built into Bitcoin. Every time a new 210,000 blocks are mined in the blockchain, Bitcoin's reward to miners is reduced. This happens roughly every four years. On April 19, 2024, the block reward was reduced from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins. The idea is that this reduces the incentive for mining, thereby putting less currency into the market and increasing overall value.

首先是比特幣減半過程。比特幣內建了稀缺性演算法。區塊鏈中每開採出 21 萬個新區塊，比特幣對礦工的獎勵就會減少。這種情況大約每四年發生一次。 2024 年 4 月 19 日，區塊獎勵從 6.25 比特幣減少至 3.125 比特幣。這個想法是，這減少了挖礦的動力，從而減少了進入市場的貨幣並增加了整體價值。

But the big event, the one that caused Bitcoin to surge in value, was the election. The overall value for a single Bitcoin was in the $60K range all through 2024, even after the halving event. It was at $69,494 on Nov. 1.

但導致比特幣價值飆升的大事件是選舉。整個 2024 年，即使在減半事件之後，單一比特幣的總價值也在 6 萬美元左右。 11 月 1 日的價格為 69,494 美元。

On Nov. 6, it jumped to $75K. By Dec. 1, it was at $97K.

11 月 6 日，它的價格躍升至 7.5 萬美元。截至 12 月 1 日，其價格為 9.7 萬美元。

According to Reuters, incoming President Trump is very bullish on cryptocurrency. Since the value of the coin is based entirely on the value traders put into it, Reuters believes the incoming president's pro-crypto stance fueled the rise in currency prices overall, and Bitcoin's in particular.

根據路透社報道，即將上任的總統川普非常看好加密貨幣。由於加密貨幣的價值完全取決於交易者投入的價值，路透社認為，即將上任的總統支持加密貨幣的立場推動了貨幣價格的整體上漲，尤其是比特幣的上漲。

My Bitcoin holdings, as of about 5 p.m. today, Jan. 1, 2025, are up to almost $100 (it's at $99.92). That's almost double what I invested. Remember that though I invested $50, PayPal took $1.15 in fees. So my profits are up 95% instead of just about 100% because of those fees.

截至 2025 年 1 月 1 日今天下午 5 點左右，我的比特幣持有量已接近 100 美元（現價 99.92 美元）。這幾乎是我投資的兩倍。請記住，雖然我投資了 50 美元，但 PayPal 收取了 1.15 美元的費用。因此，由於這些費用，我的利潤增加了 95%，而不是 100% 左右。

So, does this mean I'm now bullish on Bitcoin? No more than any other investment that can crater and skyrocket according to the whims of the market, no.

那麼，這是否意味著我現在看好比特幣？不會比任何其他投資更容易根據市場的變化而暴跌和飆升。

Look, I'm not qualified to make investment recommendations. But I'm still convinced that cryptocurrency is nuts. All cryptocurrency is, is an agreement among a bunch of people to assign an arbitrary value to an algorithm. That seems like crazy talk.

你看，我沒有資格提出投資建議。但我仍然堅信加密貨幣是瘋狂的。所有加密貨幣都是一群人之間達成的協議，為演算法分配任意值。這似乎是瘋狂的言論。

On the other hand, that's our entire economy, isn't it? We assign money a value and agree upon it, whether it's dollars or even gold. Stocks have value because of how a bunch of people behave when buying and selling them. Even algorithms have value. Microsoft, for example, has been making bank for years off of Office revenue, and all Office really is, fundamentally, is a collection of algorithms.

另一方面，這就是我們的整個經濟，不是嗎？我們為貨幣賦予價值並達成一致，無論是美元還是黃金。股票之所以有價值，是因為一群人在買賣股票時的行為。甚至演算法也有價值。例如，微軟多年來一直靠 Office 收入賺錢，而從根本上來說，所有 Office 實際上都是演算法的集合。

I'll tell you this: I'm not going to be increasing my stake in Bitcoin. I'm not putting any more than my original $50 (plus fees) into the cryptocurrency. I'm just not into that kind of gambling. But I live in the same society and economy that all of you do, so I'll be spending every workday doing my best to make dollars -- which land in an account electronically.

我告訴你：我不會增加我在比特幣中的股份。我投入加密貨幣的金額不會超過原來的 50 美元（加上費用）。我只是不喜歡那種賭博。但我和你們生活在同一個社會和經濟中，所以我會在每個工作日盡我所能賺錢——這些錢以電子方式存入帳戶。

I'll then push some other buttons on screen to order groceries via Instacart or products via Amazon. So, yeah, while dollars are backed by the gold reserves of the US Treasury (conspiracy theories not withstanding), my personal experience of real dollars isn't all that much different in practice than that of Bitcoin.

然後，我將按下螢幕上的其他一些按鈕，透過 Instacart 訂購雜貨或透過亞馬遜訂購產品。所以，是的，雖然美元是由美國財政部的黃金儲備支持的（儘管有陰謀論），但我個人對真實美元的體驗在實踐中與比特幣並沒有太大不同。

Will Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies replace the dollar? It's possible. The world is just wacky enough to do it. Think about it this way: Before the 1950s, we didn't really use credit cards. Now they'

比特幣或其他加密貨幣會取代美元嗎？這是有可能的。這個世界真是夠古怪的，竟然能做到這一點。可以這樣想：在 20 世紀 50 年代之前，我們並沒有真正使用信用卡。現在他們'