2022 年，我在比特币上投资了 50 美元。以下是我的收益（和损失）

欢迎来到 2025 年。今天是 1 月 1 日，这是我今年的第一篇文章。正如我自 2022 年以来的每一篇文章一样，我将讨论比特币。

I started 2022 with a bold experiment: I decided to invest my entire PayPal account balance in Bitcoin. At the time, that amounted to a "vast" sum of $50 (plus another $1.15 in PayPal fees). I documented my experience throughout the year, and now, on Jan. 1, 2025, I'm back to tell you how my investment fared over the last 12 months.

2022 年伊始，我进行了一个大胆的实验：我决定将我的 PayPal 账户余额全部投资于比特币。当时，这相当于 50 美元的“巨额”金额（另加 1.15 美元的 PayPal 费用）。我记录了我全年的经历，现在，2025 年 1 月 1 日，我回来告诉你们我的投资在过去 12 个月的表现如何。

To quickly recap my 2022 experience, I lost a lot of money on my Bitcoin holdings. By July 1, my investment had dropped by 60%. I decided to stop checking on it and returned on New Year's Day of 2023 to find that I'd lost 66% of my original investment. I was glad I hadn't bought into Bitcoin earlier, when prices were much higher.

快速回顾一下我 2022 年的经历，我持有的比特币损失了很多钱。到 7 月 1 日，我的投资下降了 60%。我决定停止查看，并在 2023 年元旦返回时发现我损失了原始投资的 66%。我很高兴自己没有在价格高得多的时候购买比特币。

I waited to check on my investment again until New Year's Day of 2024. By then, the value of my holdings had nearly doubled since the previous July. However, I was still underwater on the investment.

直到 2024 年元旦，我才再次检查我的投资。到那时，我所持股票的价值比去年 7 月几乎翻了一番。然而，我在投资上仍然陷入困境。

Now, finally, we arrive at New Year's Day, 2025. While I didn't check on my investment throughout 2024, I've been following the news closely.

现在，终于到了 2025 年元旦。虽然我在 2024 年没有检查我的投资，但我一直在密切关注新闻。

First, there was the Bitcoin halving process. A scarcity algorithm is built into Bitcoin. Every time a new 210,000 blocks are mined in the blockchain, Bitcoin's reward to miners is reduced. This happens roughly every four years. On April 19, 2024, the block reward was reduced from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins. The idea is that this reduces the incentive for mining, thereby putting less currency into the market and increasing overall value.

首先是比特币减半过程。比特币内置了稀缺性算法。区块链中每开采出 210,000 个新区块，比特币对矿工的奖励就会减少。这种情况大约每四年发生一次。 2024 年 4 月 19 日，区块奖励从 6.25 比特币减少至 3.125 比特币。这个想法是，这减少了挖矿的动力，从而减少了进入市场的货币并增加了整体价值。

But the big event, the one that caused Bitcoin to surge in value, was the election. The overall value for a single Bitcoin was in the $60K range all through 2024, even after the halving event. It was at $69,494 on Nov. 1.

但导致比特币价值飙升的大事件是选举。整个 2024 年，即使在减半事件之后，单个比特币的总价值也在 6 万美元左右。 11 月 1 日的价格为 69,494 美元。

On Nov. 6, it jumped to $75K. By Dec. 1, it was at $97K.

11 月 6 日，它的价格跃升至 7.5 万美元。截至 12 月 1 日，其价格为 9.7 万美元。

According to Reuters, incoming President Trump is very bullish on cryptocurrency. Since the value of the coin is based entirely on the value traders put into it, Reuters believes the incoming president's pro-crypto stance fueled the rise in currency prices overall, and Bitcoin's in particular.

据路透社报道，即将上任的总统特朗普非常看好加密货币。由于加密货币的价值完全取决于交易者投入的价值，路透社认为，即将上任的总统支持加密货币的立场推动了货币价格的整体上涨，尤其是比特币的上涨。

My Bitcoin holdings, as of about 5 p.m. today, Jan. 1, 2025, are up to almost $100 (it's at $99.92). That's almost double what I invested. Remember that though I invested $50, PayPal took $1.15 in fees. So my profits are up 95% instead of just about 100% because of those fees.

截至 2025 年 1 月 1 日今天下午 5 点左右，我的比特币持有量已接近 100 美元（现价 99.92 美元）。这几乎是我投资的两倍。请记住，虽然我投资了 50 美元，但 PayPal 收取了 1.15 美元的费用。因此，由于这些费用，我的利润增长了 95%，而不是 100% 左右。

So, does this mean I'm now bullish on Bitcoin? No more than any other investment that can crater and skyrocket according to the whims of the market, no.

那么，这是否意味着我现在看好比特币？不会比任何其他投资更容易根据市场的变化而暴跌和飙升。

Look, I'm not qualified to make investment recommendations. But I'm still convinced that cryptocurrency is nuts. All cryptocurrency is, is an agreement among a bunch of people to assign an arbitrary value to an algorithm. That seems like crazy talk.

你看，我没有资格提出投资建议。但我仍然坚信加密货币是疯狂的。所有加密货币都是一群人之间达成的协议，为算法分配任意值。这似乎是疯狂的言论。

On the other hand, that's our entire economy, isn't it? We assign money a value and agree upon it, whether it's dollars or even gold. Stocks have value because of how a bunch of people behave when buying and selling them. Even algorithms have value. Microsoft, for example, has been making bank for years off of Office revenue, and all Office really is, fundamentally, is a collection of algorithms.

另一方面，这就是我们的整个经济，不是吗？我们为货币赋予价值并达成一致，无论是美元还是黄金。股票之所以有价值，是因为一群人在买卖股票时的行为方式。甚至算法也有价值。例如，微软多年来一直靠 Office 收入赚钱，而从根本上来说，所有 Office 实际上都是算法的集合。

I'll tell you this: I'm not going to be increasing my stake in Bitcoin. I'm not putting any more than my original $50 (plus fees) into the cryptocurrency. I'm just not into that kind of gambling. But I live in the same society and economy that all of you do, so I'll be spending every workday doing my best to make dollars -- which land in an account electronically.

我告诉你：我不会增加我在比特币中的股份。我投入加密货币的金额不会超过原来的 50 美元（加上费用）。我只是不喜欢那种赌博。但我和你们生活在同一个社会和经济中，所以我会在每个工作日尽我所能赚钱——这些钱以电子方式存入账户。

I'll then push some other buttons on screen to order groceries via Instacart or products via Amazon. So, yeah, while dollars are backed by the gold reserves of the US Treasury (conspiracy theories not withstanding), my personal experience of real dollars isn't all that much different in practice than that of Bitcoin.

然后，我将按下屏幕上的其他一些按钮，通过 Instacart 订购杂货或通过亚马逊订购产品。所以，是的，虽然美元是由美国财政部的黄金储备支持的（尽管有阴谋论），但我个人对真实美元的体验在实践中与比特币并没有太大不同。

Will Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies replace the dollar? It's possible. The world is just wacky enough to do it. Think about it this way: Before the 1950s, we didn't really use credit cards. Now they'

比特币或其他加密货币会取代美元吗？这是有可能的。这个世界真是够古怪的，竟然能做到这一点。可以这样想：在 20 世纪 50 年代之前，我们并没有真正使用信用卡。现在他们'