Acuite Ratings：2025-27 財年印度鋼鐵業產能將增加 2,000 萬噸

在汽車、房地產和基礎設施產業強勁成長的推動下，印度的鋼鐵需求預計在中期將成長8%。

India's steel industry is expected to see an increase in annual capacity by 20 million tons during the financial year (FY) 2025-27, according to a recent report by Acuite Ratings & Research. The report bodes well for the Indian steel industry in the medium to long term.

根據 Acuite Ratings & Research 最近的一份報告，印度鋼鐵業預計在 2025-27 財年 (FY) 期間年產能將增加 2,000 萬噸。該報告對印度鋼鐵業的中長期而言是個好兆頭。

India's steel demand is set to grow by 8 per cent in the medium term, driven by strong growth in the automotive, real estate, and infrastructure sectors.

在汽車、房地產和基礎設施產業強勁成長的推動下，印度的鋼鐵需求中期預計將成長 8%。

The report highlights that the steel industry will continue to see sustained capacity expansion over the medium to long term, despite the prevailing margin pressures.

報告強調，儘管普遍存在利潤壓力，但中長期鋼鐵業產能仍將持續擴張。

Among the challenges faced by the domestic industry are a marked increase in imports from Asian countries such as Vietnam and China.

國內產業面臨的挑戰之一是來自越南和中國等亞洲國家的進口顯著增加。

"Chinese exports of iron and steel products saw a 22 per cent YoY growth in the Apr-Sep'24 period. With slower domestic demand and large excess capacities in the sector, there is a rising risk of a surge of low-cost Chinese steel imports in the markets of Europe and Asia," said Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Acuite Ratings & Research.

「2024年4月至9月，中國鋼鐵產品出口年增22%。隨著國內需求放緩和該產業產能嚴重過剩，中國低成本鋼鐵激增的風險加大Acuite Ratings & Research 首席經濟學家兼執行董事Suman Chowdhury 表示：

"Imports from countries like Vietnam are also reported to be rising. However, this has begun to lead to trade protection measures in India; higher tariffs on imports from China and Vietnam have been imposed in certain grades to support the domestic industry and help protect local manufacturing," he added.

「據報道，來自越南等國家的進口也在增加。然而，這已開始導致印度採取貿易保護措施；對來自中國和越南的進口產品徵收一定級別的更高關稅，以支持國內產業並幫助保護當地產品。

According to the report, the steel industry's vulnerability to volatility in key raw material prices, such as coking coal and iron ore, will persist; moreover, higher environmental and regulatory costs will pose a challenge to maintaining cost efficiency going forward.

報告指出，鋼鐵業對焦煤、鐵礦石等主要原物料價格波動的脆弱性將持續存在；此外，更高的環境和監管成本將對維持未來的成本效率構成挑戰。

In FY2023-24, consumption rose by a sharp 3.6 per cent (YoY). According to the Ministry of Steel, India's per capita steel consumption has doubled, rising from 59 kg in 2013-14 to 119 kg in 2022-23.

2023-24 財年，消費較去年同期大幅成長 3.6%。據鋼鐵部稱，印度人均鋼鐵消費量翻了一番，從2013-14年的59公斤增加到2022-23年的119公斤。

During this period, crude steel production in India increased from 109.1 million tonnes (MT) in 2019-20 to 144.3 MT in 2023-24, reflecting a CAGR of 7.2 per cent.

在此期間，印度粗鋼產量從2019-20年的1.091億噸增加到2023-24年的144.3噸，複合年增長率為7.2%。

The domestic steel industry's production capacity also expanded from 142.3 MTPA in 2019-20 to 179.5 MT in 2023-24, supporting the rise in production.

國內鋼鐵業的產能也從2019-20年的142.3噸PA擴大到2023-24年的179.5噸，支撐了產量的成長。

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