Acuite Ratings：2025-27 财年印度钢铁行业产能将增加 2000 万吨

在汽车、房地产和基础设施行业强劲增长的推动下，印度的钢铁需求预计在中期增长8%。

India's steel industry is expected to see an increase in annual capacity by 20 million tons during the financial year (FY) 2025-27, according to a recent report by Acuite Ratings & Research. The report bodes well for the Indian steel industry in the medium to long term.

根据 Acuite Ratings & Research 最近的一份报告，印度钢铁行业预计在 2025-27 财年 (FY) 期间年产能将增加 2000 万吨。该报告对印度钢铁行业的中长期而言是个好兆头。

India's steel demand is set to grow by 8 per cent in the medium term, driven by strong growth in the automotive, real estate, and infrastructure sectors.

在汽车、房地产和基础设施行业强劲增长的推动下，印度的钢铁需求中期预计将增长 8%。

The report highlights that the steel industry will continue to see sustained capacity expansion over the medium to long term, despite the prevailing margin pressures.

报告强调，尽管普遍存在利润压力，但中长期钢铁行业产能仍将持续扩张。

Among the challenges faced by the domestic industry are a marked increase in imports from Asian countries such as Vietnam and China.

国内行业面临的挑战之一是来自越南和中国等亚洲国家的进口显着增加。

"Chinese exports of iron and steel products saw a 22 per cent YoY growth in the Apr-Sep'24 period. With slower domestic demand and large excess capacities in the sector, there is a rising risk of a surge of low-cost Chinese steel imports in the markets of Europe and Asia," said Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Acuite Ratings & Research.

“2024年4月至9月，中国钢铁产品出口同比增长22%。随着国内需求放缓和该行业产能严重过剩，中国低成本钢铁激增的风险加大Acuite Ratings & Research 首席经济学家兼执行董事 Suman Chowdhury 表示：

"Imports from countries like Vietnam are also reported to be rising. However, this has begun to lead to trade protection measures in India; higher tariffs on imports from China and Vietnam have been imposed in certain grades to support the domestic industry and help protect local manufacturing," he added.

“据报道，来自越南等国家的进口也在增加。然而，这已开始导致印度采取贸易保护措施；对来自中国和越南的进口产品征收一定级别的更高关税，以支持国内产业并帮助保护当地产品。”制造业，”他补充道。

According to the report, the steel industry's vulnerability to volatility in key raw material prices, such as coking coal and iron ore, will persist; moreover, higher environmental and regulatory costs will pose a challenge to maintaining cost efficiency going forward.

报告指出，钢铁行业对焦煤、铁矿石等主要原材料价格波动的脆弱性将持续存在；此外，更高的环境和监管成本将对维持未来的成本效率构成挑战。

In FY2023-24, consumption rose by a sharp 3.6 per cent (YoY). According to the Ministry of Steel, India's per capita steel consumption has doubled, rising from 59 kg in 2013-14 to 119 kg in 2022-23.

2023-24 财年，消费同比大幅增长 3.6%。据钢铁部称，印度人均钢铁消费量翻了一番，从2013-14年的59公斤增加到2022-23年的119公斤。

During this period, crude steel production in India increased from 109.1 million tonnes (MT) in 2019-20 to 144.3 MT in 2023-24, reflecting a CAGR of 7.2 per cent.

在此期间，印度粗钢产量从2019-20年的1.091亿吨增加到2023-24年的144.3吨，复合年增长率为7.2%。

The domestic steel industry's production capacity also expanded from 142.3 MTPA in 2019-20 to 179.5 MT in 2023-24, supporting the rise in production.

国内钢铁行业的产能也从2019-20年的142.3吨PA扩大到2023-24年的179.5吨，支撑了产量的增长。

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