投資者在不確定性中尋求​​避風港，黃金需求創歷史新高

世界黃金協會（WGC）的最新報告確認了貴金屬創紀錄的市場支撐，價格有望保持堅挺。

The World Gold Council (WGC) has reported record market support for gold in its latest Gold Demand Trends report.

世界黃金協會（WGC）在其最新的黃金需求趨勢報告中報告了創紀錄的市場對黃金的支持。

Prices remained strong with an average of $3,766 per ounce in Q3.

第三季價格依然堅挺，平均價格為每盎司 3,766 美元。

Demand rose 5% year-on-year to 1,313t, with total demand exceeding $152 billion for the first time on record.

需求量年增5%至1,313噸，總需求量有史以來首次超過1,520億美元。

Global investment demand more than doubled year-on-year to 364t, driven by a shift in demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

受黃金交易所交易基金 (ETF) 需求變化的推動，全球投資需求年增一倍多，達到 364 噸。

Gold ETFs added 95t globally in the first positive quarter since Q1 2022, while bar and coin demand fell 9%.

自 2022 年第一季以來的第一個積極季度，全球黃金 ETF 增加了 95 噸，而金條和金幣需求下降了 9%。

Compared to the 10-year average of 774t, the year-to-date total for bar and coin demand remained strong at 859t.

與 774 噸的 10 年平均值相比，今年迄今金條和金幣的需求總量仍然強勁，達到 859 噸。

While central bank buying slowed, Q3 demand remained robust at 186t and year-to-date demand reached 694t.

儘管央行購買放緩，但第三季需求依然強勁，達到 186 噸，年初至今需求達 694 噸。

High pricing was also associated with a slide in global demand for gold jewellery, which was down 12% year-on-year on a volume basis but up 13% in value terms.

高定價也與全球金飾需求下滑有關，金飾需求量較去年同期下降 12%，但價值成長 13%。

WGC senior market analyst Louise Street said increased investment and over-the-counter activity propped up global gold demand and drove price performance in Q3.

世界黃金協會高級市場分析師Louise Street表示，投資和場外交易活動的增加支撐了全球黃金需求，並推動了第三季的價格表現。

“While the higher gold price dampened demand in the majority of consumer markets, the import duty cut in India kept jewellery and bar and coin demand remarkably high in a record-breaking price environment,” Ms Street said.

Street女士表示：“雖然金價上漲抑制了大多數消費市場的需求，但印度進口關稅的下調使珠寶、金條和金幣的需求在創紀錄的價格環境下保持在相當高的水平。”

“A ‘FOMO factor’ among investors has been a key driver of increased demand this quarter.

「投資者的『FOMO 因素』是本季需求成長的關鍵驅動因素。

“Investors, particularly in the US, are encouraged by the prospect of future interest rate decreases and are also considering gold’s role as a safe haven in the face of US political uncertainty and escalating conflicts in the Middle East.

「投資者，尤其是美國投資者，對未來利率下降的前景感到鼓舞，並在面對美國政治不確定性和中東衝突升級時考慮黃金作為避風港的作用。

“On the other hand, we’ve seen over 30 record price highs in 2024 and that environment will continue to be challenging for consumers.”

“另一方面，我們在 2024 年已經看到了 30 多次價格創紀錄的高點，這種環境將繼續對消費者構成挑戰。”

The WGC noted that total demand for gold in technology grew 7% year-on-year, bolstered by growth from the electronics sector as the artificial intelligence boom continues to support demand with total supply up 5% year-on-year.

世界黃金協會指出，在電子產業成長的推動下，科技領域對黃金的總需求年增了 7%，而人工智慧的繁榮持續支撐著需求，總供應量較去年同期成長了 5%。

Mine production was up 6% and recycling 11% higher.

礦山產量增加了 6%，回收率增加了 11%。

In the Australian market, demand led to some interesting trends, according to WGC market strategist John Reade.

WGC 市場策略師 John Reade 表示，在澳洲市場，需求導致了一些有趣的趨勢。

“Record-high local gold prices, which rallied higher in October, have continued to weigh on demand for gold jewellery in Australia, where tighter financial conditions have curtailed overall consumer spending,” Mr Reade said.

Reade 先生表示：“10 月份創紀錄的本地金價上漲，繼續打壓澳大利亞的金飾需求，因為金融狀況趨緊，限制了整體消費者支出。”

“However, like other western markets, Australia is showing increased allocations to gold in portfolios through bar and coin investment and ETFs as investors seek portfolio resilience.

「然而，與其他西方市場一樣，隨著投資者尋求投資組合的彈性，澳洲透過金條和金幣投資以及ETF增加了投資組合中的黃金配置。

“Continued central bank buying, escalated geopolitical uncertainty and increased investor focus are likely to stay supportive of gold.

「央行持續購買、地緣政治不確定性升級以及投資者關注度增加可能會繼續支撐黃金。

“Add to this easing policy rates, which incentivise buying through lower holding costs, and we expect gold to remain a favoured hedge against instability and portfolio diversifier.”

“再加上寬鬆的政策利率，通過降低持有成本來刺激購買，我們預計黃金仍將是對抗不穩定和投資組合多元化的首選對沖工具。”