投资者在不确定性中寻求避风港，黄金需求创历史新高

世界黄金协会（WGC）的最新报告确认了贵金属创纪录的市场支撑，价格有望保持坚挺。

The World Gold Council (WGC) has reported record market support for gold in its latest Gold Demand Trends report.

世界黄金协会（WGC）在其最新的黄金需求趋势报告中报告了创纪录的市场对黄金的支持。

Prices remained strong with an average of $3,766 per ounce in Q3.

第三季度价格依然坚挺，平均价格为每盎司 3,766 美元。

Demand rose 5% year-on-year to 1,313t, with total demand exceeding $152 billion for the first time on record.

需求量同比增长5%至1,313吨，总需求量有史以来首次超过1,520亿美元。

Global investment demand more than doubled year-on-year to 364t, driven by a shift in demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

受黄金交易所交易基金 (ETF) 需求变化的推动，全球投资需求同比增长一倍多，达到 364 吨。

Gold ETFs added 95t globally in the first positive quarter since Q1 2022, while bar and coin demand fell 9%.

自 2022 年第一季度以来的第一个积极季度，全球黄金 ETF 增加了 95 吨，而金条和金币需求下降了 9%。

Compared to the 10-year average of 774t, the year-to-date total for bar and coin demand remained strong at 859t.

与 774 吨的 10 年平均水平相比，今年迄今为止金条和金币的需求总量仍然强劲，达到 859 吨。

While central bank buying slowed, Q3 demand remained robust at 186t and year-to-date demand reached 694t.

尽管央行购买放缓，但第三季度需求依然强劲，达到 186 吨，年初至今需求达到 694 吨。

High pricing was also associated with a slide in global demand for gold jewellery, which was down 12% year-on-year on a volume basis but up 13% in value terms.

高定价还与全球金饰需求下滑有关，金饰需求量同比下降 12%，但价值增长 13%。

WGC senior market analyst Louise Street said increased investment and over-the-counter activity propped up global gold demand and drove price performance in Q3.

世界黄金协会高级市场分析师Louise Street表示，投资和场外交易活动的增加支撑了全球黄金需求，并推动了第三季度的价格表现。

“While the higher gold price dampened demand in the majority of consumer markets, the import duty cut in India kept jewellery and bar and coin demand remarkably high in a record-breaking price environment,” Ms Street said.

Street女士表示：“虽然金价上涨抑制了大多数消费市场的需求，但印度进口关税的下调使珠宝、金条和金币的需求在创纪录的价格环境下保持在相当高的水平。”

“A ‘FOMO factor’ among investors has been a key driver of increased demand this quarter.

“投资者的‘FOMO 因素’是本季度需求增长的关键驱动因素。

“Investors, particularly in the US, are encouraged by the prospect of future interest rate decreases and are also considering gold’s role as a safe haven in the face of US political uncertainty and escalating conflicts in the Middle East.

“投资者，尤其是美国投资者，对未来利率下降的前景感到鼓舞，并在面对美国政治不确定性和中东冲突升级时考虑黄金作为避风港的作用。

“On the other hand, we’ve seen over 30 record price highs in 2024 and that environment will continue to be challenging for consumers.”

“另一方面，我们在 2024 年已经看到了 30 多次价格创纪录的高点，这种环境将继续对消费者构成挑战。”

The WGC noted that total demand for gold in technology grew 7% year-on-year, bolstered by growth from the electronics sector as the artificial intelligence boom continues to support demand with total supply up 5% year-on-year.

世界黄金协会指出，在电子行业增长的推动下，科技领域对黄金的总需求同比增长了 7%，而人工智能的繁荣继续支撑着需求，总供应量同比增长了 5%。

Mine production was up 6% and recycling 11% higher.

矿山产量增长了 6%，回收率增长了 11%。

In the Australian market, demand led to some interesting trends, according to WGC market strategist John Reade.

WGC 市场策略师 John Reade 表示，在澳大利亚市场，需求导致了一些有趣的趋势。

“Record-high local gold prices, which rallied higher in October, have continued to weigh on demand for gold jewellery in Australia, where tighter financial conditions have curtailed overall consumer spending,” Mr Reade said.

Reade 先生表示：“10 月份创纪录的本地金价上涨，继续打压澳大利亚的金饰需求，因为金融状况趋紧，限制了整体消费者支出。”

“However, like other western markets, Australia is showing increased allocations to gold in portfolios through bar and coin investment and ETFs as investors seek portfolio resilience.

“然而，与其他西方市场一样，随着投资者寻求投资组合的弹性，澳大利亚通过金条和金币投资以及ETF增加了投资组合中的黄金配置。

“Continued central bank buying, escalated geopolitical uncertainty and increased investor focus are likely to stay supportive of gold.

“央行持续购买、地缘政治不确定性升级以及投资者关注度增加可能会继续支撑黄金。

“Add to this easing policy rates, which incentivise buying through lower holding costs, and we expect gold to remain a favoured hedge against instability and portfolio diversifier.”

“再加上宽松的政策利率，通过降低持有成本来刺激购买，我们预计黄金仍将是对抗不稳定和投资组合多元化的首选对冲工具。”