以太坊（ETH）經歷了艱難的時期

輸入：以太坊經歷了艱難的時期。不可否認。不僅是加密twitter（現在的X），還給以太坊帶來了困難。

Ethereum has been having a tough time. There’s no denying it. It’s not only crypto Twitter (now X) that’s giving Ethereum a hard time. More importantly, on chain data give proof that things are not going that well.

以太坊經歷了艱難的時期。不可否認。不僅是加密twitter（現在的X），還給以太坊帶來了困難。更重要的是，在鏈數據上可以證明事情進展不佳。

The $ETH-$BTC chart doesn’t look good. $ETH is not holding up well, or, at all.

$ eth-$ btc圖表看起來不好。 $ eth根本無法保持良好狀態。

In December last year, the $ETH price was still above $4k. Now it’s $1,600. $ETH ETF outflows also keep going on. Network activity is down by 33%. On the other hand, competitors keep gaining ground. Users and funds are migrating to other L1s.

去年12月，$ ETH價格仍高於$ 4K。現在是$ 1,600。 $ ETH ETF流出也繼續進行。網絡活動下降了33％。另一方面，競爭對手不斷發展。用戶和資金正在遷移到其他L1。

So, what’s the story here, Ethereum? Time to take a closer look, to see if it’s dying or rebuilding.

那麼，以太坊的故事是什麼？是時候仔細看看它是快死還是重建了。

What’s Happening at Ethereum?

以太坊發生了什麼？

There are many things happening at Ethereum. However, they are not all that positive. It still has the first mover advantage, but that is also crumbling. On-chain data show a negative trend for almost every important metric for the chain. Let’s take a look at some of these data in more detail.

以太坊發生了很多事情。但是，它們並不是那麼積極。它仍然具有第一個推動力的優勢，但這也崩潰了。鏈上數據顯示了鏈的幾乎每個重要指標的負面趨勢。讓我們更詳細地查看其中一些數據。

Developer Activity Is Dwindling

開發人員活動正在減少

Miles Deutscher points out that developer activity in crypto has dwindled. Currently, it’s hitting the same lows as in 2018. He mentions various factors for this. For example, AI is more interesting, so devs move there. However, this seems to hit Ethereum harder than other chains.

Miles Deutscher指出，加密貨幣的開發人員活動逐漸減少。目前，它與2018年相同的低點。他提到了各種因素。例如，AI更有趣，因此開發人員搬到那裡。但是，這似乎比其他連鎖店更難擊中以太坊。

Source: X

來源：X

$ETH OGs Are Leaving

$ eth ogs離開

$ETH OGs are selling their bags. Lookonchain gives various examples on X.

$ eth OGS正在出售其行李。 Lookonchain在X上提供了各種示例。

In general, according to Glassnode, 74% of $ETH holders are underwater.

通常，根據GlassNode的說法，$ ETH持有人中有74％在水下。

Funds Migrations to L2s and Other L1s

資金遷移到L2和其他L1

Other users are not selling their $ETH, however, they migrate to other L1s. The most popular L1s are Solana, Sui, and Hyperliquid. We see monthly net outflows of around $2.5 billion. These also include L2s. For example, Base and Arbitrum.

其他用戶沒有出售其$ ETH，但是他們遷移到其他L1。最受歡迎的L1是Solana，Sui和Hyproliquid。我們看到每月淨流出約25億美元。這些還包括L2。例如，基礎和仲裁。

Source: Artemis

資料來源：Artemis

$ETH ETFs

$ eth etfs

This also brings us to the $ETH ETFs. These have been negative for weeks now. The reason is simple. Running an Ethereum validator is complicated and expensive. The rewards are between 3% and 4%. On the other hand, institutions prefer Treasury bonds. These earn over 4%.

這也將我們帶到了$ eth etfs。這些數週已經否定了。原因很簡單。運行以太坊驗證器很複雜且昂貴。獎勵在3％至4％之間。另一方面，機構更喜歡國庫債券。這些收入超過4％。

How Do L2s Fare?

L2S如何票價？

How are the Layer 2’s working out? First for Ethereum, but also for themselves?

第2層的工作狀況如何？首先是以太坊，也是自己？

Ethereum saw the Layer 2s as a solution to help it with scaling. L2s also offered lower transaction fees. However, in the process, activity on the Ethereum seems to be dying. Most activity happens on a handful of L2s and on competitive L1 chains.

以太坊將第2層視為幫助其擴展的解決方案。 L2還提供較低的交易費用。但是，在此過程中，對以太坊的活動似乎正在消失。大多數活動發生在少數L2和競爭性L1鏈上。

So, what started out as a good solution, seems to be backfiring now. Ethereum fees have dropped, true. Transaction fees on Ethereum are now in general below a Dollar. For Ethereum, not bad. However, the competing L1s offer transaction fees at a fraction of a cent. The transaction fees on L2s are similarly low as on competing L1s. So, why would you want to use this chain at all? See the picture below.

因此，最初是一個很好的解決方案，現在似乎正在適得其反。以太坊費用下降了。現在，以太坊的交易費用總體低於一美元。對於以太坊，還不錯。但是，競爭的L1s提供的交易費用為一分錢。 L2S的交易費用與競爭L1相似。那麼，您為什麼要完全使用此鏈？請參閱下面的圖片。

Source: Grow the Pie

資料來源：種餡餅

Ethereum also still has its scalability issues. TPS is still around 14. Solana and Sui have daily TPS of around 4,000. Their theoretical TPS is much higher. That’s more like 65,000 for Solana and 300,000 for Sui.

以太坊還存在其可伸縮性問題。 TPS仍然大約14歲。 Solana和Sui每天的TPS約為4,000。他們的理論TPS要高得多。對於Solana來說，這更像是65,000，Sui的300,000。

The L2s themselves didn’t do that great, though. Many launched in 2024. Some had juicy airdrops. If you sold those airdrops, you did well. Holding the bags was not a good idea. Last year, these tokens all closed in the red.

L2本身並沒有那麼出色。許多人於2024年推出。有些有多汁的氣水。如果您出售了這些空投，您會做得很好。拿袋不是一個好主意。去年，這些令牌都以紅色關閉。

Even Arbitrum (-44%) and Optimism (-41%) had a tough time last year. These are two top performing L2s.

去年，即使是仲裁（-44％）和樂觀（-41％）也很艱難。這是兩個表現最高的L2。

Source: Oak Research

資料來源：橡樹研究

Now, if we look at revenue, most struggle to get $1 million profit in a year. Others even run at a loss. So, the situation for L2s is also bleak. The number of users remains the same, but there’s too much diversification going on.

現在，如果我們查看收入，大多數一年都難以獲得100萬美元的利潤。其他人甚至虧損。因此，L2S的情況也黯淡。用戶的數量保持不變，但是進行了太多的多元化。