以太坊（ETH）经历了艰难的时期

输入：以太坊经历了艰难的时期。不可否认。不仅是加密twitter（现在的X），还给以太坊带来了困难。

Ethereum has been having a tough time. There’s no denying it. It’s not only crypto Twitter (now X) that’s giving Ethereum a hard time. More importantly, on chain data give proof that things are not going that well.

以太坊经历了艰难的时期。不可否认。不仅是加密twitter（现在的X），还给以太坊带来了困难。更重要的是，在链数据上可以证明事情进展不佳。

The $ETH-$BTC chart doesn’t look good. $ETH is not holding up well, or, at all.

$ eth-$ btc图表看起来不好。 $ eth根本无法保持良好状态。

In December last year, the $ETH price was still above $4k. Now it’s $1,600. $ETH ETF outflows also keep going on. Network activity is down by 33%. On the other hand, competitors keep gaining ground. Users and funds are migrating to other L1s.

去年12月，$ ETH价格仍高于$ 4K。现在是$ 1,600。 $ ETH ETF流出也继续进行。网络活动下降了33％。另一方面，竞争对手不断发展。用户和资金正在迁移到其他L1。

So, what’s the story here, Ethereum? Time to take a closer look, to see if it’s dying or rebuilding.

那么，以太坊的故事是什么？是时候仔细看看它是快死还是重建了。

What’s Happening at Ethereum?

以太坊发生了什么？

There are many things happening at Ethereum. However, they are not all that positive. It still has the first mover advantage, but that is also crumbling. On-chain data show a negative trend for almost every important metric for the chain. Let’s take a look at some of these data in more detail.

以太坊发生了很多事情。但是，它们并不是那么积极。它仍然具有第一个推动力的优势，但这也崩溃了。链上数据显示了链的几乎每个重要指标的负面趋势。让我们更详细地查看其中一些数据。

Developer Activity Is Dwindling

开发人员活动正在减少

Miles Deutscher points out that developer activity in crypto has dwindled. Currently, it’s hitting the same lows as in 2018. He mentions various factors for this. For example, AI is more interesting, so devs move there. However, this seems to hit Ethereum harder than other chains.

Miles Deutscher指出，加密货币的开发人员活动逐渐减少。目前，它与2018年相同的低点。他提到了各种因素。例如，AI更有趣，因此开发人员搬到那里。但是，这似乎比其他连锁店更难击中以太坊。

Source: X

来源：X

$ETH OGs Are Leaving

$ eth ogs离开

$ETH OGs are selling their bags. Lookonchain gives various examples on X.

$ eth OGS正在出售其行李。 Lookonchain在X上提供了各种示例。

In general, according to Glassnode, 74% of $ETH holders are underwater.

通常，根据GlassNode的说法，$ ETH持有人中有74％在水下。

Funds Migrations to L2s and Other L1s

资金迁移到L2和其他L1

Other users are not selling their $ETH, however, they migrate to other L1s. The most popular L1s are Solana, Sui, and Hyperliquid. We see monthly net outflows of around $2.5 billion. These also include L2s. For example, Base and Arbitrum.

其他用户没有出售其$ ETH，但是他们迁移到其他L1。最受欢迎的L1是Solana，Sui和Hyproliquid。我们看到每月净流出约25亿美元。这些还包括L2。例如，基础和仲裁。

Source: Artemis

资料来源：Artemis

$ETH ETFs

$ eth etfs

This also brings us to the $ETH ETFs. These have been negative for weeks now. The reason is simple. Running an Ethereum validator is complicated and expensive. The rewards are between 3% and 4%. On the other hand, institutions prefer Treasury bonds. These earn over 4%.

这也将我们带到了$ eth etfs。这些数周已经否定了。原因很简单。运行以太坊验证器很复杂且昂贵。奖励在3％至4％之间。另一方面，机构更喜欢国库债券。这些收入超过4％。

How Do L2s Fare?

L2S如何票价？

How are the Layer 2’s working out? First for Ethereum, but also for themselves?

第2层的工作状况如何？首先是以太坊，也是自己？

Ethereum saw the Layer 2s as a solution to help it with scaling. L2s also offered lower transaction fees. However, in the process, activity on the Ethereum seems to be dying. Most activity happens on a handful of L2s and on competitive L1 chains.

以太坊将第2层视为帮助其扩展的解决方案。 L2还提供较低的交易费用。但是，在此过程中，对以太坊的活动似乎正在消失。大多数活动发生在少数L2和竞争性L1链上。

So, what started out as a good solution, seems to be backfiring now. Ethereum fees have dropped, true. Transaction fees on Ethereum are now in general below a Dollar. For Ethereum, not bad. However, the competing L1s offer transaction fees at a fraction of a cent. The transaction fees on L2s are similarly low as on competing L1s. So, why would you want to use this chain at all? See the picture below.

因此，最初是一个很好的解决方案，现在似乎正在适得其反。以太坊费用下降了。现在，以太坊的交易费用总体低于一美元。对于以太坊，还不错。但是，竞争的L1s提供的交易费用为一分钱。 L2S的交易费用与竞争L1相似。那么，您为什么要完全使用此链？请参阅下面的图片。

Source: Grow the Pie

资料来源：种馅饼

Ethereum also still has its scalability issues. TPS is still around 14. Solana and Sui have daily TPS of around 4,000. Their theoretical TPS is much higher. That’s more like 65,000 for Solana and 300,000 for Sui.

以太坊还存在其可伸缩性问题。 TPS仍然大约14岁。Solana和Sui每天的TPS约为4,000。他们的理论TPS要高得多。对于Solana来说，这更像是65,000，Sui的300,000。

The L2s themselves didn’t do that great, though. Many launched in 2024. Some had juicy airdrops. If you sold those airdrops, you did well. Holding the bags was not a good idea. Last year, these tokens all closed in the red.

L2本身并没有那么出色。许多人于2024年推出。有些有多汁的气水。如果您出售了这些空投，您会做得很好。拿袋不是一个好主意。去年，这些令牌都以红色关闭。

Even Arbitrum (-44%) and Optimism (-41%) had a tough time last year. These are two top performing L2s.

去年，即使是仲裁（-44％）和乐观（-41％）也很艰难。这是两个表现最高的L2。

Source: Oak Research

资料来源：橡树研究

Now, if we look at revenue, most struggle to get $1 million profit in a year. Others even run at a loss. So, the situation for L2s is also bleak. The number of users remains the same, but there’s too much diversification going on.

现在，如果我们查看收入，大多数一年都难以获得100万美元的利润。其他人甚至亏损。因此，L2S的情况也黯淡。用户的数量保持不变，但是进行了太多的多元化。