空頭大舉押注，以太坊（ETH）期貨市場空頭部位創下峰值

以太坊（ETH）的槓桿空頭部位已攀升至前所未有的高位，顯示市場情緒出現看跌傾向，交易者準備迎接波動加劇。

As the cryptocurrency market braces for heightened volatility, traders are placing record-breaking bets on the direction of ether.

隨著加密貨幣市場波動加劇，交易員對以太幣的走勢進行了創紀錄的押注。

Open interest in ethereum futures has surpassed $20 billion, setting a new high and highlighting the intense speculative activity. This upswing in short positions indicates an increasing number of traders are wagering on ether’s price dropping. At the same time, the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) has reached a peak, reflecting a greater reliance on borrowed funds—an approach that magnifies the potential for rapid liquidations.

以太坊期貨持倉量已超過200億美元，創下新高，凸顯投機活動的激烈程度。空頭部位的增加表明越來越多的交易者押注以太坊價格下跌。同時，估計槓桿率（ELR）已達到峰值，反映出對借入資金的更大依賴——這種方法放大了快速清算的可能性。

Sentiment among traders reinforces this cautious outlook. Options activity shows a growing preference for protective put contracts, which now account for more than 34% of trades compared to 26% favoring bullish calls. Although bearish sentiment via other indicators has eased to 47% from 70% in October, it remains a strong signal of lingering caution.

交易員的情緒強化了這種謹慎的前景。選擇權活動顯示，人們越來越偏好保護性看跌期權，目前該合約佔交易總量的 34% 以上，而看漲看漲期權的比例為 26%。儘管其他指標的看跌情緒已從 10 月的 70% 降至 47%，但這仍然是一個揮之不去的謹慎態度的強烈信號。

Additional metrics point to ether’s uphill battle. Resistance near $3,600 has proven tough to breach, while a weakening relative strength index (RSI) hints at dwindling momentum. Institutional interest also appears to be cooling, as ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recently experienced several single-day net outflows last week.

其他指標顯示以太坊正在經歷一場艱苦的戰鬥。事實證明，3,600 美元附近的阻力位很難突破，而相對強弱指數 (RSI) 的疲軟則暗示動能正在減弱。機構興趣似乎也在降溫，因為上週以太坊交易所交易基金（ETF）最近經歷了多次單日淨流出。

The spike in leveraged shorts adds another layer of tension to the market. If prices unexpectedly rise, short sellers could face forced liquidations, potentially unleashing a chain reaction of buy orders that drive prices higher—a phenomenon known as a short squeeze. On the flip side, a sustained downturn might validate bearish bets, albeit at the cost of heightened market strain.

槓桿空頭的激增為市場增添了另一層緊張氣氛。如果價格意外上漲，賣空者可能會面臨強制平倉，從而可能引發買單的連鎖反應，推高價格——這種現象稱為軋空。另一方面，持續的低迷可能會驗證看跌押注，儘管代價是市場壓力加劇。

Despite the prevailing negativity, some analysts remain optimistic about a turnaround before year-end, forecasting ether could reach between $5,000 and $10,000. However, such projections hinge on significant shifts in market conditions.

儘管普遍存在負面情緒，但一些分析師仍對年底前的改善持樂觀態度，預測以太坊價格可能會達到 5,000 美元至 10,000 美元之間。然而，此類預測取決於市場狀況的重大變化。

Ethereum’s derivatives market, not for the faint of heart, is poised for either a deeper decline or a stage for recovery—the next few weeks will reveal the path.

以太坊的衍生性商品市場不適合膽小的人，它要么會進一步下跌，要么會進入復甦階段——未來幾週將揭示路徑。