空头大举押注，以太坊（ETH）期货市场空头头寸创下峰值

以太坊（ETH）的杠杆空头头寸已攀升至前所未有的高位，表明市场情绪出现看跌倾向，交易者准备迎接波动加剧。

As the cryptocurrency market braces for heightened volatility, traders are placing record-breaking bets on the direction of ether.

随着加密货币市场波动加剧，交易员对以太币的走势进行了创纪录的押注。

Open interest in ethereum futures has surpassed $20 billion, setting a new high and highlighting the intense speculative activity. This upswing in short positions indicates an increasing number of traders are wagering on ether’s price dropping. At the same time, the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) has reached a peak, reflecting a greater reliance on borrowed funds—an approach that magnifies the potential for rapid liquidations.

以太坊期货持仓量已超过200亿美元，创下新高，凸显投机活动的激烈程度。空头头寸的增加表明越来越多的交易者押注以太坊价格下跌。与此同时，估计杠杆率（ELR）已达到峰值，反映出对借入资金的更大依赖——这种方法放大了快速清算的可能性。

Sentiment among traders reinforces this cautious outlook. Options activity shows a growing preference for protective put contracts, which now account for more than 34% of trades compared to 26% favoring bullish calls. Although bearish sentiment via other indicators has eased to 47% from 70% in October, it remains a strong signal of lingering caution.

交易员的情绪强化了这种谨慎的前景。期权活动显示，人们越来越偏爱保护性看跌期权，目前该合约占交易总量的 34% 以上，而看涨看涨期权的比例为 26%。尽管其他指标的看跌情绪已从 10 月份的 70% 降至 47%，但这仍然是一个挥之不去的谨慎态度的强烈信号。

Additional metrics point to ether’s uphill battle. Resistance near $3,600 has proven tough to breach, while a weakening relative strength index (RSI) hints at dwindling momentum. Institutional interest also appears to be cooling, as ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recently experienced several single-day net outflows last week.

其他指标表明以太坊正在经历一场艰苦的战斗。事实证明，3,600 美元附近的阻力位很难突破，而相对强弱指数 (RSI) 的疲软则暗示动能正在减弱。机构兴趣似乎也在降温，因为上周以太坊交易所交易基金（ETF）最近经历了多次单日净流出。

The spike in leveraged shorts adds another layer of tension to the market. If prices unexpectedly rise, short sellers could face forced liquidations, potentially unleashing a chain reaction of buy orders that drive prices higher—a phenomenon known as a short squeeze. On the flip side, a sustained downturn might validate bearish bets, albeit at the cost of heightened market strain.

杠杆空头的激增给市场增添了另一层紧张气氛。如果价格意外上涨，卖空者可能会面临强制平仓，从而可能引发买单的连锁反应，推高价格——这种现象被称为轧空。另一方面，持续的低迷可能会验证看跌押注，尽管代价是市场压力加剧。

Despite the prevailing negativity, some analysts remain optimistic about a turnaround before year-end, forecasting ether could reach between $5,000 and $10,000. However, such projections hinge on significant shifts in market conditions.

尽管普遍存在负面情绪，但一些分析师仍对年底前的好转持乐观态度，预测以太币价格可能会达到 5,000 美元至 10,000 美元之间。然而，此类预测取决于市场状况的重大变化。

Ethereum’s derivatives market, not for the faint of heart, is poised for either a deeper decline or a stage for recovery—the next few weeks will reveal the path.

以太坊的衍生品市场不适合胆小的人，它要么会进一步下跌，要么会进入复苏阶段——未来几周将揭示路径。