3月26日至3月28日之間的Ether（ETH）價格下跌了9.3％

這種更正導致了超過1.14億美元的槓桿期貨清算，並導致相對於常規現貨市場的溢價下降

Ether (ETH) price tested the $1,860 level for the first time in two weeks as the correction between March 26 and March 28 led to over $114 million in liquidations of leveraged ETH futures and dropped the premium relative to the regular spot market to its lowest level in over a year.

Ether（ETH）價格在兩週內首次測試了1,860美元的水平，因為3月26日至3月28日之間的糾正導致了超過1.14億美元的槓桿ETH期貨清算，並將相對於常規現貨市場的溢價降至一年以上的最低水平。

Some traders have argued that the rock-bottom ETH futures premium is a bottom signal, but let’s dig deeper into the data to see if this perspective makes any sense.

一些交易者認為，岩石最低的期貨溢價是一個最低的信號，但讓我們更深入地研究數據，以查看這種觀點是否有意義。

ETH futures premium hits 2-year low

Eth Futures Premium命中2年低點

Eth Futures Premium命中2年低點

Typically, monthly futures contracts trade above the regular spot price as sellers demand compensation for the longer settlement period. A 5% to 10% annualized premium indicates neutral markets, reflecting the cost of opportunity and the exchanges’ risk.

通常，隨著賣方要求更長的和解期要求薪酬，每月期貨合約交易高於正常現貨價格。每年5％至10％的溢價表明中立市場，反映了機會成本和交流風險。

However, ETH futures dropped below this threshold on March 8, following a 24% price correction in the prior two weeks.

但是，在前兩週的價格校正24％之後，ETH期貨在3月8日的該門檻降至此閾值以下。

At the moment, the 2% ETH futures annualized premium suggests a lack of demand for leveraged longs (buys), but this measure is highly influenced by recent price movements. For example, on Oct. 10, 2024, the ETH futures premium dropped to 2.6% after a 14% price correction in two weeks, but the indicator rose to 7% as ETH regained most of its losses.

目前，2％的ETH期貨年度溢價表明對槓桿式渴望的需求不足（購買），但是這項措施受到最近價格變動的很大影響。例如，在2024年10月10日，ETH Futures Premium在兩週內進行了14％的價格校正後下降到2.6％，但隨著ETH恢復了大部分損失，指標上升到7％。

Essentially, the futures premium rarely signals changes in the spot price trend.

從本質上講，期貨溢價很少表示現貨價格趨勢的變化。

ETH whales are afraid the price will fall further

Eth鯨魚擔心價格會進一步下降

Eth鯨魚擔心價格會進一步下降

To determine if whales have lost interest in Ether, it’s crucial to observe how the market is pricing put (sell) options compared to call (buy) options. When traders anticipate a downtrend, the 25% delta skew metric rises above 6%, indicating a higher demand for hedging strategies. In contrast, periods of bullishness usually push the skew below -6%.

為了確定鯨魚對以太的興趣是否失去了興趣，至關重要的是要觀察到市場定價（賣出）期權與呼叫（買入）選項相比是至關重要的。當交易者預計下降趨勢時，25％的三角洲度量指標上升到6％以上，表明對對沖策略的需求更高。相比之下，看漲時期通常將偏差低於-6％。

Currently at 7%, the ETH options’ 25% delta skew suggests a lack of conviction among professional traders, which increases the likelihood of further bearish momentum.

ETH選項目前為7％，25％的Delta偏斜表明專業交易者缺乏信念，這增加了進一步看跌勢頭的可能性。

From a derivatives market perspective, there is little indication that the recent ETH price correction has bottomed out. Ultimately, investors aren’t confident that the $1,800 support will hold.

從衍生品市場的角度來看，幾乎沒有跡象表明最近的ETH價格校正已經觸底了。最終，投資者不相信1,800美元的支持將持有。

Some analysts argue that the sharp decline in Ethereum network activity is the primary reason for the reduced appeal of ETH, while others suggest that the shift toward layer-2 scalability has significantly decreased the potential of base chain fees. Given the need to compensate network validators, the lack of capital inflow requires more ETH issuance, which negatively affects net returns from native staking.

一些分析人士認為，以太坊網絡活動的急劇下降是ETH吸引力下降的主要原因，而其他人則認為向2層可伸縮性的轉變顯著降低了基礎鏈費用的潛力。鑑於需要補償網絡驗證者，缺乏資本流入需要更多的ETH發行，這會對本地積分產生負面影響。

The Ethereum network faces steep competition

以太坊網絡面臨陡峭的競爭

Attempting to pinpoint the reasons behind sellers’ motivations is pointless, especially considering Ethereum’s competition, which has expanded from blockchains like BNB Chain and Solana to networks tailored for specific challenges. Examples include Hyperliquid, focused on synthetic assets and perpetual trading, and Berachain, which is apparently better suited for staked assets in cross-liquidity pools.

試圖指出賣家動機背後的原因是毫無意義的，尤其是考慮到以太坊的競爭，該競爭已從BNB鍊和Solana等區塊鏈擴展到針對特定挑戰的量身定制的網絡。例子包括超流動性，專注於合成資產和永久交易，以及Berachain，顯然更適合跨流動性池中的固定資產。

The success of certain decentralized applications (DApps) could serve as the final blow to Ether. For instance, Ethena, the synthetic dollar protocol on Ethereum, is transitioning to its own layer-1 blockchain. The project, currently holding $5.3 billion in total value locked (TVL), raised $100 million in December 2024 to support this shift.

某些分散應用程序（DAPP）的成功可以作為對以太的最終打擊。例如，以太坊上的合成美元協議Ethena正在過渡到其自己的第1層區塊鏈。該項目目前持有53億美元的總價值鎖定（TVL），於2024年12月籌集了1億美元，以支持這一轉變。

However, it may be too early to say that ETH price will continue to fall, as a major protocol update is only a few weeks away. Investors should pay attention to the practical benefits of Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade in terms of base layer fees and overall usability for the average user. Until then, the chances of ETH outperforming the broader altcoin market are slim.

但是，現在說ETH價格將繼續下跌還為時過早，因為主要協議更新僅幾週了。投資者應關注以太坊的Pectra升級的實際收益，從基本層費用和普通用戶的總體可用性方面。在此之前，ETH的機會勝過更廣泛的Altcoin市場。