自合併以來，Ether（ETH）對比特幣（BTC）下降了近70％，提出了有關其價格前景的疑問

以太坊在2022年9月的過渡到股份證明（POS）旨在成為網絡的遊戲規則改變者。

Despite transitioning to proof-of-stake (PoS) in September 2022, Ethereum (ETH) has underperformed Bitcoin (BTC) by nearly 70%, raising questions about the Merge's impact on ETH's market position.

儘管在2022年9月過渡到股份證明（POS），但以太坊（ETH）的表現使比特幣（BTC）的表現差不多70％，從而提出了有關合併對ETH市場地位的影響的疑問。

While the Merge aimed to make ETH a "deflationary" asset, reducing its supply over time, data from UltraSound.Money shows that Ethereum's supply growth rate is close to 0%, indicating that the Merge's disinflationary effect has stalled. At its best, the supply rate was -0.37% in April 2024.

雖然合併旨在使ETH成為“放氣”資產，並隨著時間的推移減少了供應，但來自超聲波的數據表明，以太坊的供應增長率接近0％，這表明合併的解散效應已停滯不前。最佳的供應率在2024年4月為-0.37％。

Ethereum's deflationary mechanism depends on EIP-1559, which burns a portion of transaction fees. However, as onchain activity decreases, gas fees drop, leading to fewer ETH burns.

以太坊的通縮機制取決於EIP-1559，該機制燃燒了一部分交易費用。但是，隨著一鏈活性的減少，氣費下降，導致ETH燃燒的較少。

Data from Token Terminal shows that Ethereum's average transaction fee peaked above $15 in March 2024 but saw a sharp decline by April, dropping below $5. The downward trend continued throughout mid-2024, reflecting a steady decrease in network demand.

Token終端的數據表明，以太坊的平均交易費用在2024年3月的15美元以上達到峰值，但到4月的急劇下降，下降到5美元以下。在整個2024年中，下降趨勢持續了，反映了網絡需求的穩定下降。

While fees stabilized in late 2024 and early 2025, they now remain well below previous highs, resulting in a rising Ether supply.

雖然費用在2024年底和2025年初穩定下來，但現在遠低於以前的高點，導致以太供應量增加。

On-chain data from Alphractal reveals that major Ethereum holders have reduced their exposure since the Merge. Wallets holding 100,000 ETH or more have massively decreased their holdings, while addresses with 1 million ETH have also decreased.

來自字母的鍊鍊數據表明，自合併以來，主要的以太坊持有人已經減少了暴露。持有100,000 ETH的錢包大大降低了其持股，而100萬ETH的地址也減少了。

“Long-Term and Short-Term Holders stopped accumulating ETH since September 2022,” said Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, adding that the data suggests these holders may be losing confidence in ETH's long-term outlook.

Alphractal的首席執行官Joao Wedson說：“自2022年9月以來，長期和短期持有人都停止積累ETH。

In contrast, Bitcoin wallets holding 100,000 BTC and 1 million BTC have increased substantially since the Merge.

相比之下，自合併以來，擁有100,000 BTC和100萬BTC的比特幣錢包大大增加。

As a result, Bitcoin and Solana (SOL) have gained market share, along with other high-growth ecosystems. Solana has become Ethereum's biggest rival, attracting DeFi and NFT projects that might have otherwise launched on Ethereum. It now commands nearly half of the DEX market, fueled by the Pump.fun memecoin launchpad, which recently surpassed Ethereum in daily volume.

結果，比特幣和索拉納（SOL）以及其他高增長生態系統獲得了市場份額。 Solana已成為以太坊最大的競爭對手，吸引了可能在以太坊上發起的Defi和NFT項目。現在，它指揮了DEX市場的幾乎一半，該泵的推動力。

According to Wedson, the Merge is “the worst thing that happened to Ethereum.” However, Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin calls Ether's underperformance a regular market cycle occurrence.

根據韋德森的說法，合併是“以太坊發生的最糟糕的事情”。但是，以太坊聯合創始人約瑟夫·盧賓（Joseph Lubin）認為Ether的表現不佳是常規的市場週期。

But some traders have noticed that ETH loses ground against BTC each time the latter crosses the $100,000 mark.

但是一些交易者註意到，每次後者都超過100,000美元時，ETH對BTC失去了基礎。

Ethereum's weekly chart shows ETH/BTC in oversold territory, based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). At the same time, the pair is trading near a historical support area defined by the 0.024-0.023 BTC range.

以太坊的每週圖表顯示了基於相對強度指數（RSI）的超售區域中的ETH/BTC。同時，兩人正在附近由0.024-0.023 BTC系列定義的歷史支持區域進行交易。

Both indicators have led to bounces in the past, suggesting that a relief rally could be coming in the next few weeks. If so, ETH/BTC can rise toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) at around 0.042 BTC by March or April.

兩種指標過去都導致了彈跳，這表明在接下來的幾週內可能會有救濟集會。如果是這樣，到3月或4月，ETH/BTC可以朝著其50週的指數移動平均線（50週EMA；紅波）上升。

However, since Ethereum's long-term bearish trend is still in place, a decisive close below the 0.024-0.023 BTC range could lead to further declines toward 0.020 BTC, a key support from the March 2020-May 2020 period.

但是，由於以太坊的長期看跌趨勢仍然存在，因此在0.024-0.023 BTC範圍以下的決定性接近可能會導致進一步下降到0.020 BTC，這是2020年3月5日5月5日至2020年3月的主要支持。

This article is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. It is crucial to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

本文並非旨在也不構成財務建議，交易建議或任何其他類型的建議。在做出任何投資決策之前，進行自己的研究至關重要。