自合并以来，Ether（ETH）对比特币（BTC）下降了近70％，提出了有关其价格前景的疑问

以太坊在2022年9月的过渡到股份证明（POS）旨在成为网络的游戏规则改变者。

Despite transitioning to proof-of-stake (PoS) in September 2022, Ethereum (ETH) has underperformed Bitcoin (BTC) by nearly 70%, raising questions about the Merge's impact on ETH's market position.

尽管在2022年9月过渡到股份证明（POS），但以太坊（ETH）的表现使比特币（BTC）的表现差不多70％，从而提出了有关合并对ETH市场地位的影响的疑问。

While the Merge aimed to make ETH a "deflationary" asset, reducing its supply over time, data from UltraSound.Money shows that Ethereum's supply growth rate is close to 0%, indicating that the Merge's disinflationary effect has stalled. At its best, the supply rate was -0.37% in April 2024.

虽然合并旨在使ETH成为“放气”资产，并随着时间的推移减少了供应，但来自超声波的数据表明，以太坊的供应增长率接近0％，这表明合并的解散效应已停滞不前。最佳的供应率在2024年4月为-0.37％。

Ethereum's deflationary mechanism depends on EIP-1559, which burns a portion of transaction fees. However, as onchain activity decreases, gas fees drop, leading to fewer ETH burns.

以太坊的通缩机制取决于EIP-1559，该机制燃烧了一部分交易费用。但是，随着一链活性的减少，气费下降，导致ETH燃烧的较少。

Data from Token Terminal shows that Ethereum's average transaction fee peaked above $15 in March 2024 but saw a sharp decline by April, dropping below $5. The downward trend continued throughout mid-2024, reflecting a steady decrease in network demand.

Token终端的数据表明，以太坊的平均交易费用在2024年3月的15美元以上达到峰值，但到4月的急剧下降，下降到5美元以下。在整个2024年中，下降趋势持续了，反映了网络需求的稳定下降。

While fees stabilized in late 2024 and early 2025, they now remain well below previous highs, resulting in a rising Ether supply.

虽然费用在2024年底和2025年初稳定下来，但现在远低于以前的高点，导致以太供应量增加。

On-chain data from Alphractal reveals that major Ethereum holders have reduced their exposure since the Merge. Wallets holding 100,000 ETH or more have massively decreased their holdings, while addresses with 1 million ETH have also decreased.

来自字母的链链数据表明，自合并以来，主要的以太坊持有人已经减少了暴露。持有100,000 ETH的钱包大大降低了其持股，而100万ETH的地址也减少了。

“Long-Term and Short-Term Holders stopped accumulating ETH since September 2022,” said Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, adding that the data suggests these holders may be losing confidence in ETH's long-term outlook.

Alphractal的首席执行官Joao Wedson说：“自2022年9月以来，长期和短期持有人都停止积累ETH。

In contrast, Bitcoin wallets holding 100,000 BTC and 1 million BTC have increased substantially since the Merge.

相比之下，自合并以来，拥有100,000 BTC和100万BTC的比特币钱包大大增加。

As a result, Bitcoin and Solana (SOL) have gained market share, along with other high-growth ecosystems. Solana has become Ethereum's biggest rival, attracting DeFi and NFT projects that might have otherwise launched on Ethereum. It now commands nearly half of the DEX market, fueled by the Pump.fun memecoin launchpad, which recently surpassed Ethereum in daily volume.

结果，比特币和索拉纳（SOL）以及其他高增长生态系统获得了市场份额。 Solana已成为以太坊最大的竞争对手，吸引了可能在以太坊上发起的Defi和NFT项目。现在，它指挥了DEX市场的几乎一半，该泵的推动力。

According to Wedson, the Merge is “the worst thing that happened to Ethereum.” However, Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin calls Ether's underperformance a regular market cycle occurrence.

根据韦德森的说法，合并是“以太坊发生的最糟糕的事情”。但是，以太坊联合创始人约瑟夫·卢宾（Joseph Lubin）认为Ether的表现不佳是常规的市场周期。

But some traders have noticed that ETH loses ground against BTC each time the latter crosses the $100,000 mark.

但是一些交易者注意到，每次后者都超过100,000美元时，ETH对BTC失去了基础。

Ethereum's weekly chart shows ETH/BTC in oversold territory, based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI). At the same time, the pair is trading near a historical support area defined by the 0.024-0.023 BTC range.

以太坊的每周图表显示了基于相对强度指数（RSI）的超售区域中的ETH/BTC。同时，两人正在附近由0.024-0.023 BTC系列定义的历史支持区域进行交易。

Both indicators have led to bounces in the past, suggesting that a relief rally could be coming in the next few weeks. If so, ETH/BTC can rise toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave) at around 0.042 BTC by March or April.

两种指标过去都导致了弹跳，这表明在接下来的几周内可能会有救济集会。如果是这样，到3月或4月，ETH/BTC可以朝着其50周的指数移动平均线（50周EMA；红波）上升。

However, since Ethereum's long-term bearish trend is still in place, a decisive close below the 0.024-0.023 BTC range could lead to further declines toward 0.020 BTC, a key support from the March 2020-May 2020 period.

但是，由于以太坊的长期看跌趋势仍然存在，因此在0.024-0.023 BTC范围以下的决定性接近可能会导致进一步下降到0.020 BTC，这是2020年3月5日5月5日至2020年3月的主要支持。

This article is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. It is crucial to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

本文并非旨在也不构成财务建议，交易建议或任何其他类型的建议。在做出任何投资决策之前，进行自己的研究至关重要。